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taipan168
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06-27-2007, 08:55 AM
Post subject: The classic bubble situation: what hands do you call with?
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#1 (permalink)
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Apologies, this will be old hat to some of you but I thought that since there are some newer posters here I'd bring up this old chestnut. Without looking at SNGPT/SNG Wiz, what hands are you calling with here?
Reads: CO has gone berserk on the bubble, having open shoved the last 6 hands where he/she was first in the pot. SB and BB are tight but have shoved in the obvious spots (eg. when folded to them when they are in the SB).
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
CO (t5500)
Hero (t4000)
SB (t2000)
BB (t2000)
Preflop: Hero is Button with [two cards]
CO raises to t5500, Hero calls t4000 and is all-in...
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|~|ypermegachi
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haven't played SnGs in a while, but i think because of the stack sizes of the blinds, we have to call really tight here...i'm thinking (b).
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TLR
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CO has shoved the last 6 hands, which means that he either has an amazing run of cards or is pretty much shoving ATC.
SB and BB are tight, but they have a pretty low M, M<3.5, so they must call with any decent hand.
I think I am between d and e, I probably call 77+ and AJ+, with 66 and AT are marginal for me
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Da GOAT
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no im with option b), i think we hurt ourselves by opening up too much with non paired hands.
88+i guess is fine too but unpaired hands arent dominating him enough for me. basically i dont wanna flip vs him, i wanna dominate.
this is a good thread idea. i stay tight and let shorties go crazy, they also know he has shoved ATC 6 times and thye are both blinds
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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Anosmic
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I think I'd try to hold to B.
I don't feel the need take a 60/40 on the bubble.
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TLR
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BTW any way to convert it to a poll once you posted it ?
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bjsaust
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I'd say e is good for a call, but he's the bigstack and we're looking very healthy compared to the two shortstacks, so I'm settling on a and being a nit.
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Just playing to improve.
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taipan168
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
BTW any way to convert it to a poll once you posted it ?
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Mods can do anything 
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rubixstreub
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
I think I am between d and e, I probably call 77+ and AJ+, with 66 and AT are marginal for me
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bjsaust
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by rubixstreub
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
I think I am between d and e, I probably call 77+ and AJ+, with 66 and AT are marginal for me
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Lets think about it though. BB is 400, so on pokerstars that means you have I think 700 in ante's and blinds each round. That puts 2 shortstacks on an M of 3 and you're on the bubble. At least one if not both of them should probably call this push. If they dont, they need to move soon and you should be ITM shortly.
This isnt just about what range you put him on and what range is good v's that, its about whether you'll risk an almost certain ITM finish on this call.
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Just playing to improve.
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TLR
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
Quote:
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Originally Posted by rubixstreub
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
I think I am between d and e, I probably call 77+ and AJ+, with 66 and AT are marginal for me
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Lets think about it though. BB is 400, so on pokerstars that means you have I think 700 in ante's and blinds each round. That puts 2 shortstacks on an M of 3 and you're on the bubble. At least one if not both of them should probably call this push. If they dont, they need to move soon and you should be ITM shortly.
This isnt just about what range you put him on and what range is good v's that, its about whether you'll risk an almost certain ITM finish on this call. |
As a rule of thumb I rather get knocked out on 4th shooting for 1st then settling for 3rd
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Sprayed
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You don't want to bubble out in this spot. I go with b or a.
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TLR
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by taipan168
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
BTW any way to convert it to a poll once you posted it ?
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Mods can do anything |
Can you time travel ?
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taipan168
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
Quote:
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Originally Posted by taipan168
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
BTW any way to convert it to a poll once you posted it ?
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Mods can do anything |
Can you time travel ?
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Unfortunately that is just beyond the reach of my magical powers...
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TLR
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by taipan168
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
Quote:
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Originally Posted by taipan168
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
BTW any way to convert it to a poll once you posted it ?
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Mods can do anything |
Can you time travel ?
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Unfortunately that is just beyond the reach of my magical powers... |
too bad...
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bjsaust
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Admins though...
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Just playing to improve.
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taipan168
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
As a rule of thumb I rather get knocked out on 4th shooting for 1st then settling for 3rd
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Sometimes this is good play, sometimes it's bad, but I don't think you can generalise. If the SB had 100 chips left after posting the SB do you still shoot for 1st?
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TLR
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by taipan168
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
As a rule of thumb I rather get knocked out on 4th shooting for 1st then settling for 3rd
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Sometimes this is good play, sometimes it's bad, but I don't think you can generalise. If the SB had 100 chips left after posting the SB do you still shoot for 1st? |
I agree, as with anything else in poker, it depends.
Overall when you start an Sng your goal is to get 1st and not ITM
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Chopper
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personally, i only dabble with tourneys, but have had some success.
i am a nit, typically, but this guy is pushing everything he can abusing the bubble...no time to be a nit, if i have something decent.
i like TT+, so i chose C, but i would open my range off of AK+, too. not much, just down to AJs+, AQo+.
the real question, to me, is...how was he before the bubble? in the early going, if you got to see him?
if he was loose there, too, i would definitely look him up with TT+, AJs+, AQo+. if not, i would lean towards AK,JJ+.
i would prefer to be suited, too, with the shortys possibly calling.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Jack Sawyer
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Its (a).
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taipan168
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I am going to throw the cat amongst the pigeons.
It is incorrect to call with any of the unpaired hands, including AK.
Discuss.
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Jack Sawyer
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You said it best taipan:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by taipan168
...in this situation, you don't f**k with the big stack unless you have a real hand...
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Very true. So unless you have (a), easy fold.
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mcatdog
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Why do people have a "play for first" point of view? It seems like it comes from the Ripptyde school of playing poker to validate your ego instead of to make money. I however do play for money, and if you believe in ICM then calling with AK is mathematically incorrect against any range of hands he could have.
JJ+
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Sprayed
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
Why do people have a "play for first" point of view? It seems like it comes from the Ripptyde school of playing poker to validate your ego instead of to make money. I however do play for money, and if you believe in ICM then calling with AK is mathematically incorrect against any range of hands he could have.
JJ+
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Nice post.
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|~|ypermegachi
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in this case i'm disagreeing with ICM. how the hell can you fold AK in this spot???
 
like..look how puuurrrrty it is
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Chopper
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i cant see why you guys are getting so tight on this bubble... vs THIS villain's track record.
i get that you should only call someone who has you covered w/ a real hand, but...
this guy has pushed the last 6 hands he opened. he clearly doesnt have the goods every every time he's is pushing.
i dont think you can just let this guy do whatever he wants with whatever hand he wants just because he's pushing his big pennis all over the place.
if you are dealt a relatively strong hand...CALL HIM. sure, he may have bullets, but given his track record, you have to be the better hand the majority of the time...so long as you are being somewhat choosy.
you double yourself up here, and cripple him, most times, imo. that clearly puts you in the drivers seat for the rest of the tourney...as well as gets the bubble popped by the very fool trying to keep it from happening any time soon.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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fdnypoker
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Understand I am coming in a tad late. I'm sticking with B, maybe even A.
Object of S/G's is to make the money. It's a much higher % payout than simply making the money in a MTT.
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It's not how many pots you win, it's what's in them that counts.
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Jack Sawyer
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
i cant see why you guys are getting so tight on this bubble... vs THIS villain's track record.
i get that you should only call someone who has you covered w/ a real hand, but...
this guy has pushed the last 6 hands he opened. he clearly doesnt have the goods every every time he's is pushing.
i dont think you can just let this guy do whatever he wants with whatever hand he wants just because he's pushing his big pennis all over the place.
if you are dealt a relatively strong hand...CALL HIM. sure, he may have bullets, but given his track record, you have to be the better hand the majority of the time...so long as you are being somewhat choosy.
you double yourself up here, and cripple him, most times, imo. that clearly puts you in the drivers seat for the rest of the tourney...as well as gets the bubble popped by the very fool trying to keep it from happening any time soon.
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It doesn't matter how many times he pushes.
Lets review:
'you have 4000 chips
stacks are villain 1 (5500), villain 2 (2000), villain 3 (2000), hero(4000).
Right now, of the 100% 0f the pot, you own 29~30%. You call here and lose, your equity in that prizemoney will take a drop of 29~30%, while the other shorties equity will instanly double.
Sure, you can call and gamble, but you stand to lose a lot than the others, prizewise. Hence, you should only call here with AA & KK.
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bjsaust
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I put my ego away and let him bully me until we're ITM as long as I've got a healthy chip lead over the small stacks.
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Just playing to improve.
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givememyleg
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i can't fold AK here 
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TLR
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
Why do people have a "play for first" point of view? It seems like it comes from the Ripptyde school of playing poker to validate your ego instead of to make money. I however do play for money, and if you believe in ICM then calling with AK is mathematically incorrect against any range of hands he could have.
JJ+
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Playing for 1st is basically derived from the Sng prize structure when getting 1st gives you more money then finishing 3rd twice
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TLR
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
I put my ego away and let him bully me until we're ITM as long as I've got a healthy chip lead over the small stacks.
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Given the blinds and the stacks it wont last long.
The likely scenarios are:
1. One small stack doubling thru the big stack - now its 4000/4000/3500/2000
2. The short stacks collide one is elimanated and the other one doubles us
5500/4000/4000
3. Big stack doubles takes out shortie
7500/4000/2000
The option of big stack just getting the blinds until someone is blinded off will only happen if both the short stack are bad bubble players
Out of the 3 scenarios only the 3rd one will maintain your lead over the short stack
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
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True, but making 3rd is a factor of infite better than 4th .
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Just playing to improve.
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TLR
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
if you believe in ICM then calling with AK is mathematically incorrect against any range of hands he could have.
JJ+
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Villians range is A2o-Aqo, is it still incorrect to call ?
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
I put my ego away and let him bully me until we're ITM as long as I've got a healthy chip lead over the small stacks.
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Given the blinds and the stacks it wont last long.
The likely scenarios are:
1. One small stack doubling thru the big stack - now its 4000/4000/3500/2000
2. The short stacks collide one is elimanated and the other one doubles us
5500/4000/4000
3. Big stack doubles takes out shortie
7500/4000/2000
The option of big stack just getting the blinds until someone is blinded off will only happen if both the short stack are bad bubble players
Out of the 3 scenarios only the 3rd one will maintain your lead over the short stack |
I'm not saying I'm going inactive, I'm saying I'm not going to call a raise (let alone a push) from the bigstack without a big advantage. I'm still happy to pick on the small stacks, and may even try to steal blinds off the bigstack with a good hand depending on reads.
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Just playing to improve.
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mcatdog
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Quote:
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Playing for 1st is basically derived from the Sng prize structure when getting 1st gives you more money then finishing 3rd twice
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Finishing 2nd twice also gives you more money than finishing 1st once and 4th once, but I'm not sure how relevant these types of statements are.
Since ICM clearly dictates that you should fold AK even if he's on any two, maybe you could explain what you think the flaws are in ICM and what a better system might look like for thinking about a hand mathematically. ICM makes perfect sense to me but it's quite possible that there are some problems with it.
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mcatdog
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
if you believe in ICM then calling with AK is mathematically incorrect against any range of hands he could have.
JJ+
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Villians range is A2o-Aqo, is it still incorrect to call ? |
You got me, now in your next 100 SnG's put people on that range when they go all-in and then report back on how you did.
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bjsaust
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Heres a tournament I just played close to the example given:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/Online-...ment-1138.html
Bubble starts somewhere before hand 5. Big stack is both loose and aggressive.
Hand 7 is probably the worst hand I'm raising with big stack as BB.
Hand 8, any bigger raise and I'd have folded AQ here.
But as you see I was still putting pressure on the small stacks (unfortunately ran into a hand with one of them), but just in general avoiding locking horns with the big stack.
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Just playing to improve.
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TLR
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
Quote:
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Playing for 1st is basically derived from the Sng prize structure when getting 1st gives you more money then finishing 3rd twice
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Finishing 2nd twice also gives you more money than finishing 1st once and 4th once, but I'm not sure how relevant these types of statements are.
Since ICM clearly dictates that you should fold AK even if he's on any two, maybe you could explain what you think the flaws are in ICM and what a better system might look like for thinking about a hand mathematically. ICM makes perfect sense to me but it's quite possible that there are some problems with it. |
One of the shortcomings of ICM is that it does not take into account the blinds, this question will have a totally different answers with blinds 25/50, 200/400 and 2000/4000.
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TLR
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
if you believe in ICM then calling with AK is mathematically incorrect against any range of hands he could have.
JJ+
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Villians range is A2o-Aqo, is it still incorrect to call ? |
You got me, now in your next 100 SnG's put people on that range when they go all-in and then report back on how you did. |
I do not think the range I put is in any case realistic, it was just to contridict your statement which was too general and stated as a mathematical fact
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Jack Sawyer
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On the bubble, I'm not looking to call all-ins. I'm looking to get my chips in first, and put pressure on others.
Therefore, I'm not calling pushes that can hurt me too much, or my stock in the pot (=by big stack). He may be pushing with 72o, I give him credit.
I will only call this w/ AA or KK.
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taipan168
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
One of the shortcomings of ICM is that it does not take into account the blinds, this question will have a totally different answers with blinds 25/50, 200/400 and 2000/4000.
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This only matters if you are in either the SB or BB, if you are not in the blinds it doesn't make a difference. Plus, ICM does take the blinds into account if you are in the blinds.
One thing that ICM/SNGPT/SNGWiz does not take into account is the impact of the blinds if you are going to eat the BB the very next hand and are very short stacked.
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bjsaust
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I wonder if its ok to when manually calculating ICM to allow for that in the 'fold' equity equation.
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Just playing to improve.
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mcatdog
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
I do not think the range I put is in any case realistic, it was just to contridict your statement which was too general and stated as a mathematical fact
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I stand by my statement. The range of hands you gave couldn't possibly be his range so it doesn't contradict anything. AK does very badly against any range of hands that he might actually have.
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mcatdog
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ICM might have some weaknesses. For example, it assumes that everyone's chance of finishing 1st is proportional to the size of their stack. Sometimes this isn't the case, because one player is likely to have a lot of good situations to keep picking up pots. Meanwhile another player is unlikely to win any pots unless he gets dealt a monster. The situation in taipan's hand is a good example, because the chip leader is probably going to keep pwning the bubble until one of the short stacks calls him, and taipan will keep getting blinded down until that happens (or he gets AA and calls). So, while ICM says the villain has about a 40% chance to win and the hero has about a 30% chance to win, in reality the villain's chances are better than that and taipan's chances are lower.
How does this impact our play in an actual SnG? Well, if we're the big stack and we're pwning a bubble, we should be less likely to call a push from a short stack, because SnGPT is going to under-estimate the equity we'll have if we fold (because it doesn't count the chips we'll pick up by continuing to pwn the bubble). Conversely, if we're the second stack and we're getting pwned, SnGPT is going to over-estimate the equity of a fold. Therefore, we should be calling with more hands than SnGPT says we should call with.
How big of a difference does this make? I don't have a clue, but my feeling is that calling with a hand like 99 (which is borderline according to SnGPT) might be good because of the above considerations, but AK is such a horrible call according to SnGPT that it's probably still bad.
This is something I've been meaning to post for awhile but I just never got around to articulating my thoughts about it.
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taipan168
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
ICM might have some weaknesses. For example, it assumes that everyone's chance of finishing 1st is proportional to the size of their stack. Sometimes this isn't the case, because one player is likely to have a lot of good situations to keep picking up pots. Meanwhile another player is unlikely to win any pots unless he gets dealt a monster. The situation in taipan's hand is a good example, because the chip leader is probably going to keep pwning the bubble until one of the short stacks calls him, and taipan will keep getting blinded down until that happens (or he gets AA and calls). So, while ICM says the villain has about a 40% chance to win and the hero has about a 30% chance to win, in reality the villain's chances are better than that and taipan's chances are lower.
How does this impact our play in an actual SnG? Well, if we're the big stack and we're pwning a bubble, we should be less likely to call a push from a short stack, because SnGPT is going to under-estimate the equity we'll have if we fold (because it doesn't count the chips we'll pick up by continuing to pwn the bubble). Conversely, if we're the second stack and we're getting pwned, SnGPT is going to over-estimate the equity of a fold. Therefore, we should be calling with more hands than SnGPT says we should call with.
How big of a difference does this make? I don't have a clue, but my feeling is that calling with a hand like 99 (which is borderline according to SnGPT) might be good because of the above considerations, but AK is such a horrible call according to SnGPT that it's probably still bad.
This is something I've been meaning to post for awhile but I just never got around to articulating my thoughts about it.
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Good post mcatdog. Slim Pickens posted a while back on the shortcomings of ICM, this is what he said:
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Originally Posted by Slim Pickens on 2+2
* The error in an ICM-calculated prize pool equity, relative to it's magnitude, gets large when the chip stack involved becomes much smaller than the big blind. This error isn't particularly important to the equity of the big stacks at the table, but it can be important in cases where there are multiple short stacks on the bubble.
* The ICM doesn't account for position, and any attempt to correct it is basically an empirical parameter fit. If position is somehow important in a situation, it won't be reflected in the ICM-calculated prize pool equity. A pair of 2 BB stacks on a 4-handed bubble will probably have different actual values depending on who is going to hit the blinds first.
* If there is a large skill differential, the ICM won't capture it. For example, there are times when a shorter stack can be played much more skillfully than a larger stack because a short stack and a rebuy ticket allows a skilled player to bluff/semi-bluff a lot more hands.
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Still, I agree with you that AK is such a -EV call here that we have to fold it every time. Interesting that you picked 99 as the borderline call hand in my hand above - if we have CO as shoving 100% (which even the most aggressive villain rarely does) then the call range is 99+.
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TLR
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Stars $16 and $27 Sngs
Posts: 4,736
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Originally Posted by taipan168
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Originally Posted by TLR
One of the shortcomings of ICM is that it does not take into account the blinds, this question will have a totally different answers with blinds 25/50, 200/400 and 2000/4000.
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This only matters if you are in either the SB or BB, if you are not in the blinds it doesn't make a difference. Plus, ICM does take the blinds into account if you are in the blinds.
One thing that ICM/SNGPT/SNGWiz does not take into account is the impact of the blinds if you are going to eat the BB the very next hand and are very short stacked. |
Sorry Taipan, but there are very few decesions that are made in poker tournament that have no relation to the blinds.
Blinds affect folding equity, pushing range and calling range.
Do you play the hand that you posted exactly identical with blinds 25/50,200/400 and 2000/4000 ?
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,171
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Originally Posted by Da GOAT
no im with option b), i think we hurt ourselves by opening up too much with non paired hands.
88+i guess is fine too but unpaired hands arent dominating him enough for me. basically i dont wanna flip vs him, i wanna dominate.
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WWWWWeeeeeeeeeeeee guess i aint lost my touch haha. i was colse enough coz you say 99+ is borderline.
Unpaired hands suck
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 9,732
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
Sorry Taipan, but there are very few decesions that are made in poker tournament that have no relation to the blinds.
Blinds affect folding equity, pushing range and calling range.
Do you play the hand that you posted exactly identical with blinds 25/50,200/400 and 2000/4000 ?
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Yes, if CO shoves it I call with exactly the same hands whether blinds are 25/50, 200/400 or 2000/4000. If I was in the BB though calling ranges would be different.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,193
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by taipan168
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Originally Posted by TLR
Sorry Taipan, but there are very few decesions that are made in poker tournament that have no relation to the blinds.
Blinds affect folding equity, pushing range and calling range.
Do you play the hand that you posted exactly identical with blinds 25/50,200/400 and 2000/4000 ?
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Yes, if CO shoves it I call with exactly the same hands whether blinds are 25/50, 200/400 or 2000/4000. If I was in the BB though calling ranges would be different. |
Of course this all changes if we're going to blind out before the opps, but this situation is highly unlikely if we're the second stack. Also, the size of the blinds can also change the hands we can put opp on, but that's not relevant if it's ATC. Other than that I'm with Taipan on this, ICM gives you your chance of winning 1st, even if we call and win we are not going to win every time, and when we fold we can still win a lot of the time, so saying 1st is better than 2 3rds is fairly irrelevant here.
Good thread tai 
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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