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  1. #301
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Again, why do you think wars wouldn't exist without governments? War is profitable to those who profit from wars. You can replace "wars" in that statement with x. In a free market there's no reason not to build a business around x, as long as it's profitable.
    Because it's not profitable. You're still operating within the frame that war is profitable. It is categorically, definitively not profitable. It destroys wealth and production. The "profit" that a tax regime gets from war is a different type of thing. They accumulate more by controlling more, and to them and only them, this is a profit. But to an economy or business, war is not profitable. Instances where companies can get a profit from it are only through providing supply for the demand that a tax regime creates. But none of this changes the fact that war is not economically profitable.

    As soon as we talk about markets, we have to abandon the notion of war profitability since it is only "profitable" for entities that are not market actors. The way a market actor doesn't become a tax regime is simple, it would take several magnitudes more money than any could put up to do so.



    You claimed that the market would do an instant nuclear proliferation if governments only allowed it to.
    I did?

    I said they wouldn't, since nukes are profitable.
    Only for non-market entities.

    You said that yeah it's a risk but businesses evaluate risks just like governments do. So what is it that you're saying now exactly?
    The basis for the claim for why governments are needed for security is the claim that they can evaluate the risks better. If that isn't true, then it isn't true. So, what is it about governments that they're theoretically better at security than markets?

    Please explain how markets would "solve terrorism"?
    By protecting their revenues. Terrorism can be good for entities that rely on force. It allows for more revenues and more control. Terrorism is disastrous for markets because it harms revenues and peace.


    The difference between revenues generated by choice of consumer and revenues generated by mandate of force is night and day. That one thing changes so much.
  2. #302
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    ....
    TIL viability isn't a thing.


    FWIW, I realized that when we say "reasonable", we're talking about two different things. I'm talking about viability, but you're talking about this type of thing

    your freedom to change your life so that you do not live in an oppressive state
    Most of the examples we've gone over are not things so oppressive that it becomes more viable to leave. It would be utterly foolish for me to move so I can play poker, but in no way does that mean that the system provides me reasonable choice to play poker.
  3. #303
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    How is war not profitable? Wouldnt the destruction of a competitor, or even violence on a smaller scale like screwing with a competitor's deliveries, be immensely profitable?

    I really dont understand. War from a land-grab perspective may not be, but from a "take resources by force, and obliterate competitors" perspective seems immensely profitable. It also seems pretty cheap to do; its not expensive to blow up a building or hire a hitman to assassinate the head of the company.
  4. #304
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    I guess a better question is this:

    Even if it is assumed that war is not profitable, would that really prevent war? There will be people who disagree, and there will be people who find the noneconomic benefits of war far exceed the monetary costs. A subset of those people will actually have the means/ability to start war as well.
  5. #305
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    How is war not profitable? Wouldnt the destruction of a competitor, or even violence on a smaller scale like screwing with a competitor's deliveries, be immensely profitable?

    I really dont understand. War from a land-grab perspective may not be, but from a "take resources by force, and obliterate competitors" perspective seems immensely profitable. It also seems pretty cheap to do; its not expensive to blow up a building or hire a hitman to assassinate the head of the company.
    Only if you get away with it, but as a business model, you wouldn't get away with it. The amount of capital that would come pouring in against you would be way more than enough to make your decision to screw with your business model a colossal liability.

    When I say war is not profitable, I'm also referring to the macro scale. War is just destruction, nothing else. Building bombs and blowing them up decreases the wealth of an economy. Disrupting factories and farms is even worse. It should also be clear I'm using the word in an economic sense. That said, an entity can benefit from war. War just isn't a profitable endeavor in any economic sense of the word. We see this in real time in that no wars that seem to get waged these days are done so because the books show it should increase profits.

    The question of how an individual company can benefit from underhanded tactics like the ones you mentioned are quite complex and beyond what I can provide. It shouldn't be confused with war, though.

    Even if it is assumed that war is not profitable, would that really prevent war? There will be people who disagree, and there will be people who find the noneconomic benefits of war far exceed the monetary costs. A subset of those people will actually have the means/ability to start war as well.
    I think it would today because all of the many most profitable companies in the world would want to avoid war as much as possible. Back when everybody was a farmer or aristocrat with blacksmiths, war was the main engine of profit. Capitalism and entrepreneurship weren't really a thing. But today by far the best way to gain power and wealth is through capitalism, and I don't think that would change if security was a market. The wealth capitalism creates is far better than the wealth violence created hundreds and thousands of years ago. Alexander the Great still shit in the dirt. Today there are millions of people with far greater education and wealth than he had who believe that violence is anathema to their status.
  6. #306
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    War can be immensely profitable. Wars have been started just for profits (think oil). War creates massive opportunities for the attacker, for the parties arming both sides, for the rebuilders after the war. Yes, there are sides that lose in wars, the losing side, taxpayers etc. That doesn't make it any less profitable for entities that reap massive profits. Companies don't exist and operate with the motivation to "grow the economy", they operate to reap massive profits.

    You claimed that the market would do an instant nuclear proliferation if governments only allowed it to.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    I did?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    I believe things like the US military selling itself on a market would end up creating a nuclear free world within 50 years. Every state with nukes has virtually zero reason to get rid of them, but if enough of security was handled through markets, we would likely see an overwhelming push to once and for all get rid of nukes.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  7. #307
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    Guys, shut up about War being profitable. It isn't. History has nothing to do with it. Understanding has nothing to do with it. Stop paying attention to reality and start paying attention to rhetoric. The simple fact is that war is not profitable because it is bad.

    Peace. Libertarians have always battled the age-old scourge of war. They understood that war brought death and destruction on a grand scale, disrupted family and economic life, and put more power in the hands of the ruling class — which might explain why the rulers did not always share the popular sentiment for peace. Free men and women, of course, have often had to defend their own societies against foreign threats; but throughout history, war has usually been the common enemy of peaceful, productive people on all sides of the conflict.
    I can't believe that gov'ts have so completely pulled the wool over your eyes that you're suggesting there is any productive upside to war. It is destructive by its very nature, creating less where peaceful people would harmoniously have produced more.

    If you would like to know more, sit down over here and I'll give a quick presentation.

    http://www.cato.org/publications/com...libertarianism

    Oh, and there's kool-aid in the back.
    Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 08-20-2015 at 05:42 AM.
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  8. #308
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Do you see how this claim contradicts the basis of your entire argument against my position? Cash doesn't overthrow the government for the same reason that cash wouldn't overthrow market security norms. Cash goes bankrupt long before getting anywhere on its overthrowing agenda.
    Are you actually suggesting there is not a human demand for gov't? You are out in the weeds buddy.

    Spontaneous Order. A great degree of order in society is necessary for individuals to survive and flourish. It’s easy to assume that order must be imposed by a central authority, the way we impose order on a stamp collection or a football team. The great insight of libertarian social analysis is that order in society arises spontaneously, out of the actions of thousands or millions of individuals who coordinate their actions with those of others in order to achieve their purposes. Over human history, we have gradually opted for more freedom and yet managed to develop a complex society with intricate organization. The most important institutions in human society — language, law, money, and markets — all developed spontaneously, without central direction. Civil society — the complex network of associations and connections among people — is another example of spontaneous order; the associations within civil society are formed for a purpose, but civil society itself is not an organization and does not have a purpose of its own.

    The Rule of Law. Libertarianism is not libertinism or hedonism. It is not a claim that “people can do anything they want to, and nobody else can say anything.” Rather, libertarianism proposes a society of liberty under law, in which individuals are free to pursue their own lives so long as they respect the equal rights of others. The rule of law means that individuals are governed by generally applicable and spontaneously developed legal rules, not by arbitrary commands; and that those rules should protect the freedom of individuals to pursue happiness in their own ways, not aim at any particular result or outcome.


    Limited Government. To protect rights, individuals form governments. But government is a dangerous institution. Libertarians have a great antipathy to concentrated power, for as Lord Acton said, “Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Thus they want to divide and limit power, and that means especially to limit government, generally through a written constitution enumerating and limiting the powers that the people delegate to government. Limited government is the basic political implication of libertarianism, and libertarians point to the historical fact that it was the dispersion of power in Europe — more than other parts of the world — that led to individual liberty and sustained economic growth.
    The order and rule of law form spontaneously precisely because of this deep, human demand for governance. The market for it would be booming and would clearly produce something profitable, yet limited, yet capable of protecting our rights.
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  9. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    Are you actually suggesting there is not a human demand for gov't? You are out in the weeds buddy.


    The order and rule of law form spontaneously precisely because of this deep, human demand for governance. The market for it would be booming and would clearly produce something profitable, yet limited, yet capable of protecting our rights.
    How would you form a gov't that would be profitable if people could only pay fees voluntarily? You'd need a marketplace with competition, but what if gov'ts don't agree on laws and there is a dispute between people under two different gov'ts?
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  10. #310
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    Wait, it can't just be that destruction is opposite production. You can destroy a mountain to make a mine. You can destroy a murderer to make a more productive society. You can destroy cancer to make a more productive worker.

    Diseases, climate change, wolves have all been disruptive to peace and productivity, is war not a profitable response?
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  11. #311
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    War can't be profitable because it requires state on state violence. These things can not become political entities and so can not participate in war. Once all political entities are guided by the profit motive, war will stop as no conflict will arise that is not readily settled by the marketplace.
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  12. #312
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    I love it. War creates states, it justifies states, but if states would behave differently, war would cease. There will be no conflict but market participation.

    Can states behave differently? Why not, we built the internet didn't we?

    Of course, why not is because people are still people.

    It really becomes an argument about understanding people.
    Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 08-20-2015 at 07:33 AM.
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  13. #313
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    How much executive control do we have over ourselves?

    Apes go to war with other apes. Is it that you can achieve a tribe big enough for everyone yet small enough where everyone is of one type?

    Can we beat the very nature that lead to war in the first place?

    There was a computer competition where people of perfect executive control (algorithms) competed at the prisoner's dilemma. The best tact was a modified tit for tat. When attacked, attack back. When cooperated with, cooperate the next turn. The modification was to sometimes forgive aggression. Can people live this algorithm? If so, when all the titties meet up, everyone'll have a blast.
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  14. #314
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    Rilla, you've managed to straw man practically every aspect of libertarianism to the great benefit of your argument. Bravo.
  15. #315
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    I wouldn't expect a libertarian to understand the finer points of serious inquiry. Strawmanning requires me to address others arguments. I was simply exploring what must follow from first principles.
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  16. #316
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    PS check out the Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy entry on war and on David Hume. Shit is tight.
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  17. #317
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Wars have been started just for profits (think oil).
    Oil is a great example to show that wars aren't for profit. The many trillions of dollars spent on wars for oil are a geopolitical power struggle, mainly US vs USSR. It's two states fighting for power, not profits. There is no assessment in existence that credibly shows these wars have been based in the profit motive.

    War creates massive opportunities for the attacker,
    Ukraine is the most applicable example. In it, we have Russia hurting its economy by its aggressive actions. The invasion was for power, not profits. The Putin regime "profits" from its behavior only in the most obscure sense of the word.

    for the parties arming both sides,
    The only time I've heard of this is conspiracy theories. I'm sure it has happened at some point, though. Weirder things have happened. Regardless, the claim as a tactic for profits is absolutely not true. If it was, we'd be seeing nonsensical things like people funding a company while also funding to destroy the company.

    for the rebuilders after the war.
    TIL costs are profits.

    That doesn't make it any less profitable for entities that reap massive profits.
    The examples of this are not due to profitability of war, but more like profitability of contracted production for a consumer. States consume war without a concern for profits, and sometimes they pay people to supply them what they want with revenues they generate also without any concern for profits.

    Companies don't exist and operate with the motivation to "grow the economy", they operate to reap massive profits.
    That's their virtue. They're beholden to their consumers and the values they hold. They're beholden to real costs.

    "It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest."

    -Adam Smith
  18. #318
    a500lbgorilla's Avatar
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    I can't get any work done because I can't keep my mind off this stuff. But first off, you should read the war article. It's great. I'm pretty sure I fall into the Realism camp.

    Second, David Hume. I remember agreeing with him about possession so I decided to look him up.

    Generally regarded as one of the most important philosophers to write in English, David Hume was also well known in his own time as an historian and essayist. A master stylist in any genre, his major philosophical works—A Treatise of Human Nature (1739–1740), the Enquiries concerning Human Understanding (1748) and concerning the Principles of Morals (1751), as well as his posthumously published Dialogues concerning Natural Religion (1779)—remain widely and deeply influential.

    Although Hume's more conservative contemporaries denounced his writings as works of scepticism and atheism, his influence is evident in the moral philosophy and economic writings of his close friend Adam Smith. Kant reported that Hume's work woke him from his “dogmatic slumbers” and Jeremy Bentham remarked that reading Hume “caused the scales to fall” from his eyes. Charles Darwin regarded his work as a central influence on the theory of evolution. The diverse directions in which these writers took what they gleaned from reading him reflect both the richness of their sources and the wide range of his empiricism. Today, philosophers recognize Hume as a thoroughgoing exponent of philosophical naturalism, as a precursor of contemporary cognitive science, and as the inspiration for several of the most significant types of ethical theory developed in contemporary moral philosophy.
    GOAT philosopher. Father of modern cognitive sciences (which explains why I don't like economics but do like behavioral economics, because the second incorporates the lessons Hume learned way back in 17xx.)

    As the title of the Treatise proclaims, Hume's subject is human nature. He summarizes his project in its subtitle: “an attempt to introduce the experimental method into moral subjects”. In his day, “moral” meant anything concerned with human nature, not just ethics, as he makes clear at the beginning of the first Enquiry, where he defines “moral philosophy” as “the science of human nature” (EHU 1.1/5). Hume's aim is to bring the scientific method to bear on the study of human nature.


    Hume's study of philosophical “systems” convinced him that philosophy was in a sorry state and in dire need of reform. When he was only 18 years old, he complains in a letter that anyone familiar with philosophy realizes that it is embroiled in “endless Disputes” (HL 3.2). The ancient philosophers, on whom he had been concentrating, replicated the errors their natural philosophers made. They advanced theories that were “entirely Hypothetical”, depending “more upon Invention than Experience”. He objects that they consulted their imagination in constructing their views about virtue and happiness, “without regarding human Nature, upon which every moral Conclusion must depend”. The youthful Hume resolved to avoid these mistakes in his own work, by making human nature his “principal Study, & the Source from which I would derive every Truth” (HL 3.6).
    Hume kills it when he's 18 in the 1700s and the same mistake is still alive and well today.


    Even at this early stage, the roots of Hume's mature approach to the reform of philosophy are evident. He was convinced that the only way to improve philosophy was to make the investigation of human nature central—and empirical (HL 3.2). The problem with ancient philosophy was its reliance on hypotheses—claims based on speculation and invention rather than experience and observation.


    By the time Hume began to write the Treatise three years later, he had immersed himself in the works of the modern philosophers, but he found them disturbing, not least because they made the same mistakes the ancients did, while professing to avoid them. Why, Hume asks, haven't philosophers been able to make the spectacular progress in understanding human nature that natural philosophers—whom we now call “scientists”—have recently achieved in the physical sciences? His answer is that while scientists have cured themselves of their “passion for hypotheses and systems”, philosophers haven't yet purged themselves of this temptation. Their theories were too speculative, relying on a priori assumptions, and paying too little attention to what human nature is actually like. Instead of helping us understand ourselves, modern philosophers were mired in interminable disputes—evident even to “the rabble without doors”—giving rise to “the common prejudice against metaphysical reasonings of all kinds”, that is, “every kind of argument which is in any way abstruse, and requires some attention to be comprehended” (T xiv.3).
    Hume would have loved Libertarians.


    To make progress, Hume maintains, we need to “reject every system … however subtle or ingenious, which is not founded on fact and observation”. These systems, covering a wide range of entrenched and influential metaphysical and theological views, purport to have discovered principles that give us a deeper and more certain knowledge of ultimate reality. But Hume argues that in attempting to go beyond anything we can possibly experience, these metaphysical theories try to “penetrate into subjects utterly inaccessible to the understanding” (EHU 1.11/11), which makes their claims to have found the “ultimate principles” of human nature not just false, but unintelligible. These “airy sciences”, as Hume calls them, have only the “air” of science (EHU 1.12/12).
    My boy.

    Guy studies science, understands it intimately, then turns to philosophers and sees that they're just pulling shit out of their asses. He'd share in all the same criticisms Libertarians can not address because they don't understand the scientific method.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m1s2NFOGyg#t=12s
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  19. #319
    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    I love it. War creates states, it justifies states, but if states would behave differently, war would cease.
    Nobody believes this.

    Most that jumps out to me from your position is that it's an argument against a position I don't hold, but I'll respond to what I can.

    Are you actually suggesting there is not a human demand for gov't?
    Of course it can be said there is human desire for government, but I've been using the term "demand" in its economic sense. There isn't a demand for government. Demand is when people pay a price for a good. Nobody pays for government. It taxes.

    How would you form a gov't that would be profitable if people could only pay fees voluntarily? You'd need a marketplace with competition, but what if gov'ts don't agree on laws and there is a dispute between people under two different gov'ts?
    By cutting deals. The same thing happens constantly in markets and in government. The question isn't "how would it work" because we already know how it would work. The question is "which would work better".

    Wait, it can't just be that destruction is opposite production. You can destroy a mountain to make a mine. You can destroy a murderer to make a more productive society. You can destroy cancer to make a more productive worker.
    We're talking two different things. Destruction exists for all. Eating is destruction. I am talking about destruction of productive qualities specifically.

    Diseases, climate change, wolves have all been disruptive to peace and productivity, is war not a profitable response?
    I've said over and over that self defense is profitable. In fact I've said that it's so profitable that I think if people were tasked with their own self defense instead of being forced to rely on government, peace and profits would increase.

    Strawmanning requires me to address others arguments
    It's the first I've heard this idea.
  20. #320
    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    I can't get any work done because I can't keep my mind off this stuff. But first off, you should read the war article. It's great. I'm pretty sure I fall into the Realism camp.

    Second, David Hume. I remember agreeing with him about possession so I decided to look him up.



    GOAT philosopher. Father of modern cognitive sciences (which explains why I don't like economics but do like behavioral economics, because the second incorporates the lessons Hume learned way back in 17xx.)



    Hume kills it when he's 18 in the 1700s and the same mistake is still alive and well today.




    Hume would have loved Libertarians.




    My boy.

    Guy studies science, understands it intimately, then turns to philosophers and sees that they're just pulling shit out of their asses. He'd share in all the same criticisms Libertarians can not address because they don't understand the scientific method.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m1s2NFOGyg#t=12s
    I guess this is why strawmanning is such a problem. Economics (and a bunch of libertarians but not all) do not do what Hume criticizes. I'm not sure who told you that any credible views of behavioral economics are somehow not incorporated into economics. The irony is that economists and libertarians have some of the highest rates of utilitarianism and realism within their realms.
    Last edited by wufwugy; 08-20-2015 at 03:56 PM.
  21. #321
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ...
    I'll stop you at this point. No one is claiming, as I've tried to illustrate, that war is good for the economy. I'm not talking about the economy, I'm talking about profits to individual parties affiliated with wars, individuals, companies, groups, nations. The fact that war is a net negative for an economy as a whole is irrelevant to this discussion. You're saying in a free market there would be no motivation for war, and that's just absolutely not true.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_profiteering

    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    The only time I've heard of this is conspiracy theories. I'm sure it has happened at some point, though. Weirder things have happened. Regardless, the claim as a tactic for profits is absolutely not true. If it was, we'd be seeing nonsensical things like people funding a company while also funding to destroy the company.
    I of course meant "to either side".

    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    That's their virtue. They're beholden to their consumers and the values they hold. They're beholden to real costs.

    "It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest."

    -Adam Smith
    And the values they hold are "massive profits for me", not "let's do what's best for the economy as a whole". I don't see why you couldn't apply evolutionary game theory on optimal market strategies. Clearly a company's optimal strategy is not to behave completely by consumer morals, but just to appear to be doing so.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  22. #322
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    I'll stop you at this point. No one is claiming, as I've tried to illustrate, that war is good for the economy. I'm not talking about the economy, I'm talking about profits to individual parties affiliated with wars, individuals, companies, groups, nations. The fact that war is a net negative for an economy as a whole is irrelevant to this discussion. You're saying in a free market there would be no motivation for war, and that's just absolutely not true.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_profiteering

    These profits to individual parties come by the demand of those instituting war. Those instituting war do not do so for profits. A system beholden to profits doesn't have this incentive for war.

    I of course meant "to either side".
    Regardless, it isn't war that is creating profits, but the demand for war products and services created by an entity without regard to profits. Without the money toilet of a tax regime's aggression, companies like Halliburton wouldn't be able to have an entire business model based on the destruction of productive capacity. There is, however, great profit to be made in self-defense. This can translate into war -- let's imagine an aggressor and a defender in a hypothetical market -- but this still greatly decreases the profits of those contracting for defense than they would otherwise be if the need for defense was lower. Which makes the system itself have high incentives to avoid war in the first place.

    I don't see why you couldn't apply evolutionary game theory on optimal market strategies. Clearly a company's optimal strategy is not to behave completely by consumer morals, but just to appear to be doing so.
    Totally true. Competition is the engine that allows this to create a thriving market.
  23. #323
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    I guess this is why strawmanning is such a problem. Economics (and a bunch of libertarians but perhaps not all) do not do what Hume criticizes. I'm not sure who told you that any credible views of behavioral economics are somehow not incorporated into economics. The irony is that economists and libertarians have some of the highest rates of utilitarianism and realism within their realms.
    You think so? I think I know exactly what Hume meant, what he found in his studies of the scientific method, what changed from the before-time to the modern era. And I've seen some macro economics that clearly misses the mark. If you assume the rational actor, you're missing Hume's lesson, for example.

    Check this out.

    In 2009, Michael Shermer, a huge skeptic, let go this article professing his libertarianism.

    http://www.skepticblog.org/2009/05/1...a-libertarian/

    Read the article. You'll love it because he says everything you want to hear.

    Even James Randi, a man whose life is an enormous inspiration for many modern skeptics, agrees with libertarianism. And this shit sets skeptics off. Especially on issues of global warming.

    http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/20...lobal-warming/

    Apparently, our friend Penn Jillette had enraptured many of his skeptic friends with his beliefs in libertarianism.

    But by 2013, Skepticism had won the day.

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...-over-beliefs/

    Michael Shermer now recognizes libertarianism for the unscientific dogmatic set of beliefs it truly is.

    Ever since college I have been a libertarian—socially liberal and fiscally conservative. I believe in individual liberty and personal responsibility. I also believe in science as the greatest instrument ever devised for understanding the world. So what happens when these two principles are in conflict? My libertarian beliefs have not always served me well. Like most people who hold strong ideological convictions, I find that, too often, my beliefs trump the scientific facts. This is called motivated reasoning, in which our brain reasons our way to supporting what we want to be true. Knowing about the existence of motivated reasoning, however, can help us overcome it when it is at odds with evidence.
    My libertarianism also once clouded my analysis of climate change. I was a longtime skeptic, mainly because it seemed to me that liberals were exaggerating the case for global warming as a kind of secular millenarianism—an environmental apocalypse requiring drastic government action to save us from doomsday through countless regulations that would handcuff the economy and restrain capitalism, which I hold to be the greatest enemy of poverty. Then I went to the primary scientific literature on climate and discovered that there is convergent evidence from multiple lines of inquiry that global warming is real and human-caused: temperatures increasing, glaciers melting, Arctic ice vanishing, Antarctic ice cap shrinking, sea-level rise corresponding with the amount of melting ice and thermal expansion, carbon dioxide touching the level of 400 parts per million (the highest in at least 800,000 years and the fastest increase ever), and the confirmed prediction that if anthropogenic global warming is real the stratosphere and upper troposphere should cool while the lower troposphere should warm, which is the case.
    Liberals and conservatives are motivated reasoners, too, of course, and not all libertarians deny science, but all of us are subject to the psychological forces at play when it comes to choosing between facts and beliefs when they do not mesh. In the long run, it is better to understand the way the world really is rather than how we would like it to be.

    Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 08-20-2015 at 03:22 PM.
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  24. #324
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Nobody believes this.

    Most that jumps out to me from your position is that it's an argument against a position I don't hold, but I'll respond to what I can.
    This was an exercise to demonstrate the holes in thinking. If I embrace, as Hume said, They advanced theories that were “entirely Hypothetical”, depending “more upon Invention than Experience”. He objects that they consulted their imagination in constructing their views ...“without regarding human Nature, upon which every moral Conclusion must depend”.

    If I embrace the tenets of Libertarianism, how are my conclusions wrong? They aren't. They just aren't the sort of conclusions you'd like to have been drawn.

    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Of course it can be said there is human desire for government, but I've been using the term "demand" in its economic sense. There isn't a demand for government. Demand is when people pay a price for a good. Nobody pays for government. It taxes.


    Demand in an economic sense is a demand in a human sense. A gov't where taxes are voluntary and paid based upon services rendered. Why can't it work?
    Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 08-20-2015 at 02:58 PM.
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  25. #325
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    War is a brutal and ugly enterprise. Yet it remains central to human history and social change. These two facts together might seem paradoxical and inexplicable, or they might reveal deeply disturbing facets of the human character (notably, a drive for dominance over others). What is certainly true, in any event, is that war and its threat continue to be forces in our lives. Recent events graphically demonstrate this proposition, whether we think of the 9-11 attacks, the counter-attack on Afghanistan, the overthrow of Iraq's Saddam Hussein, the Darfur crisis in Sudan, the bombings in Madrid and London, or the on-going “war on terror” more generally. We all had high hopes going into the new millennium in 2000; alas, this new century has already been savagely scarred with warfare.

    War's violent nature, and controversial social effects, raise troubling moral questions for any thoughtful person...

    ...

    ...Realism is most influential amongst political scientists, as well as scholars and practitioners of international relations. While realism is a complex and often sophisticated doctrine, its core propositions express a strong suspicion about applying moral concepts, like justice, to the conduct of international affairs. Realists believe that moral concepts should be employed neither as descriptions of, nor as prescriptions for, state behaviour on the international plane. Realists emphasize power and security issues, the need for a state to maximize its expected self-interest and, above all, their view of the international arena as a kind of anarchy, in which the will to power enjoys primacy.


    No good thread for it. But the article on War is really interesting.
    http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/war/
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  26. #326
    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    You think so? I think I know exactly what Hume meant, what he found in his studies of the scientific method, what changed from the before-time to the modern era. And I've seen some macro economics that clearly misses the mark. If you assume the rational actor, you're missing Hume's lesson, for example.

    Check this out.

    In 2009, Michael Shermer, a huge skeptic, let go this article professing his libertarianism.

    http://www.skepticblog.org/2009/05/1...a-libertarian/

    Read the article. You'll love it because he says everything you want to hear.

    Even James Randi, a man whose life is an enormous inspiration for many modern skeptics, agrees with libertarianism. And this shit sets skeptics off. Especially on issues of global warming.

    http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/20...lobal-warming/

    Apparently, our friend Penn Jillette had enraptured many of his skeptic friends with his beliefs in libertarianism.

    But by 2013, Skepticism had won the day.

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...-over-beliefs/

    Michael Shermer now recognizes libertarianism for the unscientific dogmatic set of beliefs it truly is.

    [/FONT][/COLOR]
    There are all sorts of libertarians. I don't disagree that those who use dogma to inform their world do so at their own peril. My realm of libertarianism is not that sort. I hail from the economics branch that includes economist utilitarians like Scott Sumner and Bryan Caplan, as well as the Thaddeus Russell branch, who may also call himself a utilitarian, who comes to his views through an assessment of history.

    I've said before in these threads that I think libertarian dogmatic views are problematic. It's one reason I don't espouse the NAP. It has some value, but it's not a full explanation and I think it's misleading and at a basic level breaks down. Thad puts it best when he says that the NAP that many libertarians espouse falsely assumes the government is not the initiator of force already and that other entities that gain favors from this system are by effect also initiators of aggression.

    Demand in an economic sense is a demand in a human sense. A gov't where taxes are voluntary and paid based upon services rendered. Why can't it work?
    It can work. I love that idea. I've been arguing for it all this time. It's a market with purchases. A voluntary tax is an oxymoron. The semantics of this are important even though they seem to be hairsplitting. When I talk about markets, I'm not talking about a system without the types of things government does, I'm talking about a system where the funding is voluntary and competitive. I can't call that a tax because, well, it isn't a tax. Taxes by definition are not voluntary.

    Am I reading you wrong, or are you suggesting you support the idea of this voluntary payment for services rendered?
    Last edited by wufwugy; 08-20-2015 at 03:53 PM.
  27. #327
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Am I reading you wrong, or are you suggesting you support the idea of this voluntary payment for services rendered?
    I can certainly argue for it. But my heart-of-hearts is in a darker place.
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  28. #328
    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    I can certainly argue for it.
  29. #329
    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    I can certainly argue for it. But my heart-of-hearts is in a darker place.
    FWIW, I think a "voluntary tax" system like you propose for defense and security would still be in the hundreds of billions annually and efficiency would increase several times over. Given the increase in efficiency and the increase in level of economic growth, this would mean that years down the road, there would be even more effective spending on defense and security than we have today and is projected from today.
  30. #330
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    Or it might not work at all. That's a possibility.

    And if I had to advance a hypothesis based upon imagination and invention alone as to why, I'd say it probably has something to do with a mistake integrated in the founding principles. It might just be that in reducing the complexity of the human world to ideas like spontaneous order and rule of law, we may have glossed over some important details about the nature of order and law, for instance.

    Of course, that might not be the case. What we really need is some test or demonstration that would show no such mistakes were made.
    Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 08-21-2015 at 01:43 AM.
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  31. #331
    Policy changes on the margins can do it. It could take a hundred years to go from one system to another, but marginal changes and the marginal results they provide are the fail-safe if the changes make things worse. I wouldn't suggest going full market in security overnight, just gradually increasing freedom of security choices.
  32. #332
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    And that still might not work, right?

    It might even be that no scheme could ever work.

    So how do you reconcile that? That something which makes sense may or may not be impossible and you can't tell which is the case.
    Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 08-21-2015 at 07:30 AM.
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  33. #333
    Well, you don't have to know the cause in order to get results.

    I'm not sure how to approach the topic of "sense".
  34. #334
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    Based upon everything you know about markets and how they work and people and how they interact with them, it seems like this should work, right? But it still might not work, it might never work. If it were to continue to fail after many attempts it would appear to be impossible. That apparent impossibility would change your understanding.

    My thinking is to run ahead and see if I can't predict the failure. So I go to places where people can predict failures of reasonable plans before anyone ever attempts them.

    How can NASA say they're going to have a satellite physically take pictures of Pluto and they actually do it? How could they know they wouldn't fail? Even when they discovered additional moons of Pluto after the mission was launched, how did it still succeed? Nothing exploded, everything worked, they ended up just about where they expected to, did what they wanted to do, and anything that went wrong was correctable.

    I would suggest that when NASA pulled together this hypothesis of imagination and invention they were constrained by extensive evidence, testing and an amazingly robust and well-demonstrated theoretical understanding. And that theoretical understanding, while built upon assumptions and an abstraction of reality, was constrained by and verified by experiment - nature never said it was wrong and She was given a lot of opportunities.

    So if someone said, "well, it won't work because you'll crash into Mars before you get to Pluto," or, "the electronics will be too cold to operate past Saturn," or, "the solar winds would be too unpredictable and you'll run out of fuel course-correcting," or, "it'll explode on launch," they can answer those questions with great predictive accuracy because of the incredible discipline shown in building up and verifying our understanding of such a wide array of natural phenomenon.

    And when I hold up the next claim that NASA makes about building a station on the Moon, and the claim that market places will deliver the best results possible for XYZ problem, I see in one an incredible amount of due diligence and in the other a lot of comparative sloppiness and fundamental flaw.

    And so I make post after post trying to highlight those flaws, where it seems like, I should have been making post after post highlighting the amazing things possible when you discipline your hypotheses of imagination and invention.
    Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 08-22-2015 at 08:17 AM.
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  35. #335
    With that in mind, do you have a prescription?
  36. #336
    a500lbgorilla's Avatar
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    If you really know something, you should be able to say, "And don't take my word for it, check this out," and point them to some source that demonstrates the fact independent of anyone's thinking.

    So, when someone says the Sun orbits the Earth, the ones that don't say "read your Bible," will say, "just look, it rises in the East, crosses the sky, and sets in the West." But this is not a demonstration that the Sun orbits the Earth because it still requires your interpretation.

    When someone says the Earth rotates in space and that's why the Sun appears to orbit, they'll say, "just look at this." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foucault_pendulum And you could continue to question the demonstration and end up in the world of Forces, momentum, and simple motion, which you should continue to question and see how they're established.

    Of course, the way they first came to accept that the Earth rotates was to resolve other observations about the motions of the other planets relative to the Sun and relative to the Earth. Some people had a vested interest in the Earth being the center of the Universe and so created logical structures based on observation to attest to that fact.


    And Copernicus, inspired by ancient philosophers belief in a moving Earth, placed the Sun in the center and saw an entirely more straight-forward geometry. The beauty of the idea alone gave it purchase among many scientists and it wasn't until Kepler and Newton came along to really establish it as scientifically correct based on observation and experiment.

    Look at your computer and the magic that happens when you strike a key and the screen responds. You could get into the habit of questioning how that happens and you'll end up in the world of programming abstraction thanks to languages which compile into machine code, machine code's interface with the actual hardware, all the way to the quantum mechanics of a transistor and the chemistry required to manufacture them. And every chain of questions will find, at root, some demonstration or experiment or logic based on them. Or you'll end up with a, "we don't really know" if you question appropriately far.

    Anything short of that standard is, in reality, some shade of "I don't know." So now look at Economists ideas of rationality and utility. If you get into questioning these ideas, you end up at a brick wall. "We can't measure utility, we just know it's maximized by rational actors and we know they're rational because they maximize utility." That shit ain't right.

    The next best thing is that you have years of practical experience with something and have developed a personal understanding of it. Though, this sort of understanding is trapped inside the expert and any attempts to communicate it will come across like The Book of The Five Rings or the OODA loop I mentioned earlier, probably very informative but you'll need to do a lot of work plastering in the holes with your own experience.

    In being able to point to something which, independent of anyone's thinking, demonstrates that you're correct, you've done something very important - you've given Nature the opportunity to have say. And so long as she doesn't say you're wrong, you're on to something. If you can't coax Nature into sharing her opinion, then you're left playing in a world of imagination and invention where it's impossible to delineate between things you know and things you're just making up.
    Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 08-23-2015 at 05:53 AM.
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  37. #337
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    Keep talking rilla.

    I am so aroused right now.

    I don't even care that you're a dude... is that weird for you?

    Should I share less?

  38. #338
    That is in part a diagnosis. I'm asking for a prescription.

    It has been established it's harder to know things in social sciences than experimental sciences. I'm asking what do we do regardless of this fact, since this fact is unchangeable.
  39. #339
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    Never quit the experimental method. It's the only show in town.

    Don't invent facts about people because you need to fill in a blank to move forward. It's a waste of time.

    Stick closely to reality and keep looking for things which can be known about people in this world and how they move through it.

    Check out Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahnmann and Influence by Cialdini.

    Munger's a great example of how it can't be known by the highest standard and so he tries to know them through experience clarified by things that are known. http://www.tilsonfunds.com/mungerpsych

    The 48 laws of power has a lot of anecdotes from history that show how single individuals can exert out-measured influence. It gives a lot to think about when talking about the social world.

    Don't worry about getting the answer until you're ready to have the answer. It's fine to recognize that you don't really know.

    At least, this is the path I'm taking.
    Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 08-23-2015 at 01:25 PM.
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  40. #340
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Keep talking rilla.

    I am so aroused right now.

    I don't even care that you're a dude... is that weird for you?

    Should I share less?



    Got some good feedback on my posts. Maybe I'll sit down and organize my thoughts on this stuff. The experience was very insightful for me once we hit that odd point about the nature of possession.
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  41. #341
    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    Never quit the experimental method. It's the only show in town.

    Don't invent facts about people because you need to fill in a blank to move forward. It's a waste of time.

    Stick closely to reality and keep looking for things which can be known about people in this world and how they move through it.
    Well, we already do this. Which is probably why I'm confused when you say we don't.
  42. #342
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Well, we already do this. Which is probably why I'm confused when you say we don't.
    Great, show me.
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  43. #343
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    If libertopia is to be a thing, it needs to start on a tiny scale. Because you cant get reliable theoretical data, you need to develop experimental. Start small, then gradually go larger and larger and larger as success grows with it.

    That may actually be impossible though as well.
  44. #344
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    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    If libertopia is to be a thing, it needs to start on a tiny scale. Because you cant get reliable theoretical data, you need to develop experimental. Start small, then gradually go larger and larger and larger as success grows with it.

    That may actually be impossible though as well.
    This is why I read a Modern History of Hong Kong and am reading a History of Modern Singapore. Seems like these would be the closest to the genuine article.
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  45. #345
    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    Great, show me.
    Economics.
  46. #346
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    If libertopia is to be a thing, it needs to start on a tiny scale. Because you cant get reliable theoretical data, you need to develop experimental. Start small, then gradually go larger and larger and larger as success grows with it.

    That may actually be impossible though as well.
    I think the best real world ways that this type of thing could develop is stuff like the Free State Project. The whole idea is extremely limited though.
  47. #347
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    Maybe this explains why I don't get economics:

  48. #348
    lmoa

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