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QJo in 3 bet pot - correcting my shit play.
Villain is 19/15 25% ATS with a fold to 3 bet of 80% over 60 hands. My image is aggro reg and I've been 3 betting a few times on this table.
*Edit: forgot to post the hand.....lolz.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($56.10)
Hero (BB) ($55)
UTG ($31.55)
MP ($67.70)
CO ($58.20)
Button ($65.05)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J, Q
3 folds, Button bets $2, 1 fold, Hero raises $6.50, Button calls $5
Flop: ($14.25) 6, K, K (2 players)
Hero bets $7.50, Button calls $7.50
Turn: ($29.25) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $17, Hero folds
Total pot: $29.25
Preflop: Seems like an good spot to 3-bet as a bluff since he's been folding so much and I haven't yet 3-bet him this session. My hand is no way good enough vs his range to flat oop and I probably fold out some of the hands that dominate me.
Flop: Okay so he flats preflop and I've got info to suggest he doesn't defend too lightly. His range could be something like [99-JJ AJ-AQ, KQ] given he looks quite strightforward I'd say it's more likely he 4 bets with QQ-AA although not certain. So on this dry flop i'd assume all I'm folding out is AJ and AQ and even then those hands might float or whatever, I don't know much about his postflop game. Given this, I think giving up is probably fine here given we expected our 3-bet to get through a lot of the time preflop and we don't rep that many combos of strong hands on this flop and are likely against a strongish range. But, I decided to c-bet...
Turn: Okay so I didn't even decide what i was going to do on the turn when I bet the flop which is dumb as hell. I think his range is mostly 99-JJ maybe some QQ and possibly a few AQ type floats. I could barell turn, but stack sizes are such that I probably cant fire river and fold out very much. So i relaise I've fucked up this hand.
Conclusion: Given my read of his range I think I should either bet like 12 on the flop then shove the turn to try to fold out 99-JJ and any floats, or just give up there and then. C-betting flop folds out so little of his hands that it's just shit and thrwoing money away when we c/f turn. So yeah, my conclusion is shipping it in in 2 streets is better than my line, but giving up on the flop is likely slightly better still because I have no idea how often he stacks off with 99-JJ.
Do people agree?
If you respond can I ask you engage at least a little with the argument I've put forward there and not just write "ZOMFG DRY - I'm always c-betting this flop!!!!!"
Thanks in adavcne.
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