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[50NL] A3s...3bet pot facing river jam
Villain is 29/24/9 (3bet) over 266 hands. FT3B 64%, FTCB 63%. ATS from BU is 46%.
Had seen villain do some spazzy things like 3bet squeezing w/ K9s from SB and then stacking off on flop w/ just 2 overs.
PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: $18.25
CO: $52.82
BTN: $51.50
SB: $68.53
Hero (BB): $68.41
SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 3 A
fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.00, fold, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN calls $2.50
Flop: ($7.25, 2 players) 4 T 4
Hero bets $4.00, BTN calls $4.00
Turn: ($15.25, 2 players) A
Hero bets $8.75, BTN calls $8.75
River: ($32.75, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, BTN bets $35.25 and is all-in, Hero ???
Doing some work on this hand and very surprised to see how close it actually is, so I thought I would post it.
If we assume villain's range is
www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Td4d4hAs8h
Equity Win Tie
BU 66.67% 66.67% 0.00% { TT, 44, ATs+, KTs, QTs, JTs, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, Jd9d, 9d7d, AQo+, ATo }
BB 33.33% 33.33% 0.00% { Ad3d }
We have 33% equity, we need 34% to call. Thoughts on range assigned for villain? He doesn't have to be bluffing here that often for this to be a call. I guess he could have some more medium FD's in his range, and he may not actually jam w/ like AJ+ here either.
EDIT - I also think bet on turn should be slightly bigger so we can jam all diamond rivers. Maybe like $11-12
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