Like the TMQ, all picks guaranteed wrong or your money back

[ensign_lee]

SageStats ensign_lee


Like the TMQ, all picks guaranteed wrong or your money back (YTD: 15-17-2, -4.46)YTD: 15-17-2
Units Won: -4.46

~~~
Had a nice week last week, but it still wasn't enough to get me back to the black. wow. hah. Well, at least it took away the sting of the Red River Shootout. It definitely felt nice having a winning week, though, weeh!

Well, on to this week. Let's hope this week performs as well as last week!

~~~
Arizona -3.5 (-110)
5 units at Skybook

I still have no faith in David Carr as a starting QB. 5 years as a Texans fan will do that to you. I don't think there's much of a dropoff in the short term between leinert and Warner. I mean, look how the team (ARI) has responded this year to him. At home, spotting Carolina -3.5, I'll take for the max.

Minnesota Vikings Moneyline (+195)
4 units at BetTrojan

Again, this is a bet against a QB that I don't have as much faith in as everyone else seems to. I think Minnesota wins this game half the time, at least. Getting around +200 is fantastic. GO GO VIKINGS.

Tennessee Titans Moneyline (+120)
2 units at JustBet

The AFC South has lost one game outside its division. ONE. All the rest of the losses have come against each other. And now we have an AFC South Team going and playing an NFC South team. As much as I hate the Titans, I think that they can take care of business here. Add in the fact that Pinny has been making it relatively unattractive to place any bets on Tennessee and this goes from a one unit bet to a two unit bet. GO GO AFC SOUTH.

Arizona / Carolina UNDER 40.5 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

This is again a bet against David Carr and his inability to lead a competent offensive drive when it is not garbage time.

Houston Texans +6.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Why does everyone always conveniently forget that the Texans hate the Jaguars and usually play them well? Not to mention that the Texans regain two important players in the offense this week: starting RB Ahman Green, and good rookie WR/PR Jacoby Jones. Jacoby's impact on the special teams and on the team's psyche is ridiculous.

I am worried about the Texans running game, seeing the offensive line struggle so much after the loss of starting C Steve McKinney and the fall of Ahman Green, but hopefully, with Green re-entering the lineup this week, that will be alleviated somewhat. GO TEXANS.

3 team 6 point teaser (+180)
HOU +12.5
MIN +11
TEN +9
3 units at BetTrojan

~~~
Allrighty, do what you need to do. I could easily revert back to my losing form at the beginning of this season.

Well, if you want to see how I've been doing, here's a little info, straight from SageStats:

~~~
Wager Size

1 unit plays: 5-6-2 0.07
2 unit plays: 7-7 0.51
3 unit plays: 2-3 -3.14
5 unit plays: 0-1 -5.5


Bet Type:
Point Spread: 5-9-1 -12.73
Moneylines: 3-7 -5.28
Totals: 6-1-1 +9.95


GO GO TEXANS!

[ensign_lee]

Whoops. Forgot one:

St. Louis Rams +10 (-110)
2 units at Skybook

Took this when I saw the Pinny lean on +9.5 at -110. Yay Skybook free half point onto somewhat key numbers! Honestly, I'm a little iffy on this bet, but hey...if Pinny is willing to take it, so am I. That, and since I no longer have the ability to sell points, I can't scalp this out. Dang.

I'm also looking at Kansas City Moneyline for tomorrow. Just seems like the juice is moving the wrong way on this game with all the bets on Cincy. I guess we'll see. If the line drops to -2.5, well then I'll be on KC for about 2 or 3 units. I guess we'll see.

[ensign_lee]

Adding:

Miami Dolphins Moneyline (+170)
3 units at JustBet

If you have access to Skybook, I'd take their +180. Unfortunately, all my funds there at the moment are tied up.

At any rate, these two teams are quite similar and this line shouldn't be as high as it is right now. Moreover, there are more bets on Cleveland (since when are they a public darling? hah), but the line moved from CLE -5 to CLE -4. And Pinnacle is holding +4 (-111) and theGreek is holding +4 (-115); the leans of these two books is quite telling to me. Everyone else still has this offered at -110.

Add this all up and this becomes a three unit bet.

[ensign_lee]

Adding another unit to the Miami Dolphins bet to make it:

Miami Dolphins Moneyline (+170)
4 units at JustBet

[ensign_lee]

Kansas City Chiefs M/L (+115)
3 units at BetTrojan

Ok, so the line on the CIN/KC game dropped. There are at least 2 bets on CIN for every one on KC. At some places, the line has dropped all the way to -2, completely passing -2.5. This is blind faith. Go Chiefs?

[ensign_lee]

Dallas Cowboys M/L (+200)
1 unit at JustBet

This line as at NE -5. So that means if these two teams were playing in New England, one undefeated team would be spotting another undefeated team ELEVEN points? Doesn't that seems silly to anyone?

Now, as a Texans fan, I'm not too terribly fond of the Cowboys. But I think they can win this game at least once in every 3 tries at home. Plus, Pinnacle and the Greek are holding unattractive prices on the Cowboys, holding -112 and -115 respectively while everyone else holds -110.

The line has moved the correct way here, going from an opener of -4 to -5 currently. I also kinda hate the Cowboys, so this is just a one unit bet.

Blech. I guess I'll have to root for them here? Go Cowboys?

I think that'll finish the day for me. Have fun y'all!

[bigspenda73]

I liked a lot of your bets except going against CAR, for some reason I had a feeling about that game.

Otherwise I liked these picks just need some to hold up.

[euphoricism]

Betting against the dolphins is always +EV.

Fucking dolphins.

[ensign_lee]

I liked a lot of your bets except going against CAR, for some reason I had a feeling about that game.

Otherwise I liked these picks just need some to hold up.

Fucking Kurt Warner getting hurt on like the 5th offensive snap of the game. I never had a chance with Rattay out there.

i shoulda done the smart thing and hedged out at halftime, but noooo...my pride wouldn't let me... pfft, I'm a idjit.