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Finished little bit down yesterday but basically break even. Man Utd, Anderlecht, Olympiacos bets didn't come in while Milan, Ajax, PSG bets did along with a small in play on Zenit.
Bets for today with write ups:
Marseille v Fenerbahce : away win at 4.05
- Fenerbache have 10 points from first 4 games, playing against Marseille who have been in terrible form and are minus three key forwards. Marseille have to win while Fenerbache know a point will get them through. Marseille will leave themselves open at the back with a weak attack if they try to break through and Fenerbache are hardly a bad team.
lazio v tottenham : over 2.5 goals at 1.98
- ignoring the 0-0 with juventus (which is a great result for lazio), both teams score a lot and concede a lot. tottenham have been on awful form but have still managed to score a lot, with 2 against arsenal last week. ade will probably play a full 90 minutes given he can't play at the weekend and a win for tottenham is a big help for them in the group.
AIK v napoli : AIK win 5.00 and over 2.5 goals at 1.96
- this is a really big game in group F, with dnipro on 9, napoli on 6, aik on 4 and psv on 4. in the reverse fixture, aik got hammered 4-0, but they've improved since then and drew 1-1 against psv in holland, lost 2-3 to dnipro and beat psv 1-0. napoli have an appalling away record in the europa league, losing both their away matches so far this year. AIK also have the benefit of having finished their league for the year, whereas napoli play on monday and so will have to be mindful of that. both teams seem capable of scoring, especially AIK at home, so i like a larger stake on over 2.5. if AIK do win I think it'll be a 2-1, but they could still easily lose 1-3 or 0-3.
liverpool v young boys: over 3.5 cards at 1.72 and BTTS at 1.72
- going to wait and see who the referee is but young boys have an awful record in europe, with their last 4 matches including one against liverpool being 5, 6, 5 and 5. the crowd at anfield is loud and so should encourage yellows too, and its a massive game for both teams so they'll both be nervous and keen. both teams have scored a lot and conceded a lot in the europa league (liverpool: F: 8, A:7, youngboys F:9, against: 10) so i think BTTS offers good value. Liverpool are fairly shaky at the back at the moment and lack pace, and Young Boys can score.
newcastle v maritimo : over 4.5 cards at evens (2.00)
- newcastle love cards, with their europa league matches so far being: 4, 4, 5, 4 while maritimo have been 6, 5, 3, 4, 7, 5. maritimo won't be sending a full strength team out given it's pretty much impossible for them to qualify so i'd expect to see plenty of bad tackles given newcastle's style of play. the last match finished with 4 cards so this one might be close but i think there's value at evens
rubin kazan v inter milan : rubin kazan -0.5 at 2.06
- this group is pretty much sealed for both teams, with kazan and milan on 10 points and neftchi and partizan on 1. the last match between these two teams was a draw, but this time inter are sending out a big group of youth players for the long journey because of injury problems. it would be big for rubin to top the group and give themselves an easier KO match so i think they'll go for it.
borussia m'gladbach v AEL limassol : Borussia -1.5 at 1.725, Borussia over 3.5 team goals at 4.33
- AEL have been awful this europa league, with just one point from 4 games and -7 goal difference. they're playing away at borussia but more importantly they have a big game on tuesday against their big rivals and 3rd place in the table (they're 4th). a borussia win here means they need just 1 point against marseille in their next match to guarantee progress to the next round. they'll still have incentive to score plenty in case fenerbahce lose to marseille, in which case goal difference will be the factor if borussia and marseille draw and borussia are two behind on goal difference already which is why i like a small bet on borussia over 3.5 at 4,33
I wrote these bets up then left them overnight before I bet them, lots of lines ended up getting hammered - Borussia were evens for 1.5 and 5.00 for over 3.5 and Liverpool v Young Boys over 3 goal line went from 2.5 to 1.825 which is a massive swing for like 8 hours. So it looks like betting the day before will be best.
I think Betfair keep a historical record but you need 100 Betfair points to access it, so time to open a Betfair account and starting betting some there!
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