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AA vs KK vs KK

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  1. #1

    Default AA vs KK vs KK

    I was playing in a tourney tonight and quite possibly had the worst bad beat. Can someone calculate the odds of the flop. Here's the scenario: I was 6th chip leader of 11 left. Blinds 600/1200. I get dealt AA in middle position. Guy to my right raises to 6K, I have 33K left and move all in, guy to my left auto pushes, guy to my right (original raiser) goes all in. They both turn over KK. I have Aspade, Aheart. I'm 97% to win and triple up and be chip leader. Flop QJ10 of clubs. Seriously! River was another club and I end losing. My question is what are the odds of three suited sequential cards dealt on the flop? This was my most Crushing loss.
  2. #2
    The odds of three cards of (any) same suit coming out on the flop are a little over 5 percent. It would be exactly 6.25% (1/16) but you have to account for the used up first and second flop cards.

    This is the same reason why there's a slightly less than 1/4 chance you'll get dealt suited hole cards. A random first hole card leaves 13 of all other suits remaining in the deck while there are only 12 cards of your suit left in play. So you're looking at a 12/51 (23.53%) shot at suited hole cards instead of 1/4 (25%).

    Hope this helps and sorry for your loss. I used to tell all my poker buddies to work on their "showdown skills" whenever they brought up a bad beat. I definitely wouldn't dwell on it. Best of luck going forward.
  3. #3
    If you play often enough, you will be soon on the other side of such a Scenario
    Good luck!
  4. #4
    Eric's Avatar
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    Can't do anything about that one. Sometimes the poker gods can be cruel in the short run.
  5. #5
    Renton's Avatar
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    odds of a monotone club or diamond flop when you hold AsAh:

    the first card is any of the 26 clubs and diamonds out of the 50 remaining deck. the second card is one of 12 possible cards of that suit in a 49 card deck, and the third is one of 11 possible cards of that suit in a 48 card deck.

    (26/50)*(12/49)*(11/48) = 2.92%
  6. #6
    One day you'll laugh instead of cry when this kind of shit happens. That's when you realise bad beats are only a figment of your imagination. This is gonna happen once every couple of million hands or whatever. A couple of million hands isn't all that much to a career poker player. I'd consider this a once in a lifetime beat and be happy about how good I got my money in. I'd be considering this a good beat, not a bad beat.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
    kick the cat, dog and old girl. just because u can, at least it will make u feel better. it happens but not nice.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel72 View Post
    If you play often enough, you will be soon on the other side of such a Scenario
    Good luck!
    Hundreds of thousands of hands and still waiting to be on the other side.

    Yet the Scenario reoccurs regularly.

    The cat, the dog and the Mouse can't take any more kickings.
  9. #9
    Severely out of luck! You played right on 100%
  10. #10
    Ouch dude thats a cold hand, what else can you do though?
  11. #11
    i agree that this is very bad luck but you say this is your most crushing lost.
    but its still statisticly possible that you loose more extreme.
    for example preflop you had 96.33% but last week i get dealt pocket 6 against k10 suites clubs.
    the flop: Ad 6d 2s so after the flop my winning chance was more than 98%
    but a queen and jack came the next two cards, so statisticly this was an exremer situation than yours.
    the chance you would loose was 4% so 1 at 25 when you play at the roulette table and
    bet always on 0 will also win once even when the chance is less than 3%
    so its actually normal when you play a lot of hands that extreme situations like this happens too us all
    but it feels unfair, i know the feeling
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Chitown69 View Post
    I was playing in a tourney tonight and quite possibly had the worst bad beat. Can someone calculate the odds of the flop. Here's the scenario: I was 6th chip leader of 11 left. Blinds 600/1200. I get dealt AA in middle position. Guy to my right raises to 6K, I have 33K left and move all in, guy to my left auto pushes, guy to my right (original raiser) goes all in. They both turn over KK. I have Aspade, Aheart. I'm 97% to win and triple up and be chip leader. Flop QJ10 of clubs. Seriously! River was another club and I end losing. My question is what are the odds of three suited sequential cards dealt on the flop? This was my most Crushing loss.
    This things happens and the poker, sometimes, is this: cruel (lol). Unfortunately it happens to you but, really, if I where you I had play the same you do. This was just bad, bad luck. Believe.

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