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5 of the worst casino bets

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  1. #1
    Eric's Avatar
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    Default 5 of the worst casino bets

    The state of Nevada shows detailed records for gaming stats including itemized casino win percentages: http://gaming.nv.gov/index.aspx?page=149

    These were among the worst bets for casino gamblers from October 1, 2013 to September 30, 2014:

    Sports Parlay Cards
    Casino Win Percent: 37.65%

    3-Card Poker
    Casino Win Percent: 30.63%

    Keno
    Casino Win Percent: 25.79%

    Let It Ride
    Casino Win Percent: 24.44%

    Pai Gow Poker
    Casino Win Percent: 21.89%

    I knew parlays and keno were bad but the others were kind of surprising.
  2. #2
    I had no idea about Pai Gow Poker being one of the worst. I thought that would be one of the percentages that is close to break-even.
  3. #3
    I don't get why people try to take on casinos. Do people think they have an edge over probability? I understand why people take on other people, as is the case with poker. But games against the house, anyone with half a brain knows the house is winning long term, so why bother? Why not play poker?

    I used to put money into fruit machines at the pub. It says on there I get a 78% return. Brilliant. For every pound I put in there, I'm setting fire to 22p. But I at least had the excuse I was drunk, or levelled myself into thinking it's due to pay out. And even then I knew that I was being stupid. That was for small change. Who the fuck takes on probability, when sober, for tens of thousands? A fucking moron, that's who. These people should try licking a moving train instead so there's more oxygen for me to breathe.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #4
    Galapogos's Avatar
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    People (sane people) don't gamble to be profitable, they gamble because it feels great to win.


    Quote Originally Posted by sauce123
    I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
  5. #5
    it's not even about winning or losing, but the rush.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  6. #6
    Eric's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I don't get why people try to take on casinos. Do people think they have an edge over probability? I understand why people take on other people, as is the case with poker. But games against the house, anyone with half a brain knows the house is winning long term, so why bother? Why not play poker?
    I agree poker is by far the best for making money. However, I understand the appeal for games like craps. You don't have to put much work/thought into craps - just throw the dice and get some cool entertainment.

    Quote Originally Posted by Galapogos View Post
    People (sane people) don't gamble to be profitable, they gamble because it feels great to win.
    Right, sometimes it isn't even about winning. Sometimes it is just about having a good time.
  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by dhubermex View Post
    I had no idea about Pai Gow Poker being one of the worst. I thought that would be one of the percentages that is close to break-even.
    When you play as the banker, correct play can get you down to some absurdly small house advantage that's like less than one-tenth of a percent. Correct play when you aren't the banker has a house advantage in the range of 2.5 percent. While this isn't huge, sub-optimal play in Pai Gow Poker is punished in a very harsh way so the difference between playing a lot of hands the correct way and the second-best or third-best way can be huge.

    AAAQT74 with no flush is a good example. The knee-jerk reaction is AAA74/QT, but splitting your trips is correct for AAT74/AQ.

    Basically, the change from QT to AQ gains a lot more value than you lose going from AAA to AA, but it's anti-intuitive when you look at how you play almost all other scenarios with trips as well as scenarios with single pairs, high card hands, etc.

    What's also interesting is that a ton of seven-card hands have two pairs, and two pairs are some of the most difficult hands to play correctly on a consistent basis in Pai Gow Poker.

    /random as fuck
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 10-30-2014 at 07:06 PM.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Galapogos View Post
    People (sane people) don't gamble to be profitable, they gamble because it feels great to win.
    So basically for the same reason I smoke weed. Because addiction.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    I agree poker is by far the best for making money. However, I understand the appeal for games like craps. You don't have to put much work/thought into craps - just throw the dice and get some cool entertainment.
    If we were talking about a couple hundred bucks, then fair enough spending money for entertainment. It's the big shot gamblers who are losing tens of k's for the buzz or in the hope of profit or whatever. If I lost $10k on a single bet I'd never forget about it, I'd start thinking how much better I'd feel if I just handed an envelope to a homeless guy, or gave it to a dog charity or something.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  10. #10
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    If we were talking about a couple hundred bucks, then fair enough spending money for entertainment. It's the big shot gamblers who are losing tens of k's for the buzz or in the hope of profit or whatever. If I lost $10k on a single bet I'd never forget about it, I'd start thinking how much better I'd feel if I just handed an envelope to a homeless guy, or gave it to a dog charity or something.
    It's all just extra 0's
  11. #11
    Well yeah, which brings me to my oringinal point of how it's basically just morons who throw large amounts of money at casinos. Anyone who actually thinks the difference between $100 and $10k is merely a couple of zeros should not have such amounts of disposable capital in the first place. There's tons of ways $10k can be better invested, many of which also provide entertainment and a gambler buzz.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  12. #12
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    I'm not really in the habit of counting other peoples money.

    The three card poker numbers really surprise me considering how easy strategy is for that game. If you always raise on Q64-high or better and always fold on Q63-high or worse, then you're playing 100% perfectly 100% of the time. Hell, even if you always raise on every single hand, then your house advantage is only going to be like 7-8 percent.
  13. #13
    Thats why I only play roulette and poker at the casino
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I don't get why people try to take on casinos. Do people think they have an edge over probability? I understand why people take on other people, as is the case with poker. But games against the house, anyone with half a brain knows the house is winning long term, so why bother? Why not play poker?
    I hear you. Like you & Eric have posted, there is definitely some Entertainment value in casino gambling as there is generally no thought/work involved.

    Back when I played poker a lot, I used to follow some of my friends around in the casinos and watch them gamble in the pits. I stopped watching though because I witnessed three (maybe four) separate occasions in which very talented poker players blew a substantial amount and seemed deeply affected by it.

    Personally, I wish payout percentages could be higher in pit games and all forms of -EV gambling, but also understand that properties have payroll & overhead to meet while also acknowledging that odds are generally posted (or at least available for any inquiring mind who wants to know).
  15. #15
    I once won $500 playing $5 let it ride for 20 minutes. TAKE THAT probability.
  16. #16
    !Luck's Avatar
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    Bongo ... some people like to lose.

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