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@ Ong - What do you mean avoid posting results in spoilers? Should I just eliminate the results entirely? I am pretty new to posting hands on forums, so any information is new information. =)
Yeah the results do not matter and only serve to skew people's opinions. You should leave the results out altogether, maybe talk about what villain had after you've had some discussion about the hand but it's not important.
Even though it worked out for me in the end.
Well this is not the correct way to look at it. Yes you got lucky here, but are you going to make a long term profit playing this hand to a shove of this size? Don't worry about individual results, worry about how much you win or lose if you play the same situation 100 times.
What matters is - do you have the required equity vs villain's range to make the call? We got 2k to call into a 5k pot, so we need to be winning 40% of the time just to break even.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.675% 36.69% 00.98% 70993802 1904059.00 { 4d4s }
Hand 1: 62.325% 61.34% 00.98% 118688432 1904059.00 { 22+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Against 22+ AJs+ KQs AQo+ we have 37.675%, not quite enough. We need him to have a few more broadway combos. I was right that it's close, and I'm probably right that it's the wrong side of close, but it really depends on what we think this guy can shove with.
Do you have a HUD running? Villain's stats would help. Any notes? Have you seen this guy shove short with, say, JTo or similar? You say you put him on Ax Kx, why not JJ? He has lots more than just Ax and Kx, it's not wise to put him on Ax Kx and neglect all the pairs he can have that have us crushed. The 55-AA in his range makes a big difference to the equity we can expect to have. If he only ever has Ax Kx, then it's an easy call, but the fact is he doesn't only ever have these hands. You need to be realistic with the range you give him, and then you can get a more accurate idea of how much equity you have. That's why it helps to have a HUD running. If he's running at 23/20 then he's very probably shoving wider than someone running at 9/9. Against a 23/20 I probably make the call because he's gonna have 22 33 A2s A3s A4s at least sometimes, giving us a few more percent vs his range, and probably enough to take us past 40%. But a 9/9 is not gonna be shoving anything we dominate, so we're always either flipping or crushed, so it would be a fold, we'd probably be as low as 35%, maybe lower. That's why villain tendancies are so important. It can be the difference between calling and folding.
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