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Start with a pfr? Call this bet on the flop?

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  1. #1
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    Default Start with a pfr? Call this bet on the flop?

    New to this table and don't have much info on villain.

    Would a pfr maybe be a better way to start the hand?


    Hero (SB): 4,845
    BB: 9,805 (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 21.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
    UTG: 4,523 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)


    9 players post ante of 20, Hero posts SB 100, BB posts BB 200

    Pre Flop: (pot: 480) Hero has 2 2

    UTG calls 200, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 200, fold, fold, Hero calls 100, BB checks

    Flop: (980, 4 players) J 6 J
    Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets 200, MP+1 calls 200, Hero calls 200, fold

    Turn: (1,580, 3 players) 5
    Hero checks, UTG bets 200, MP+1 calls 200, Hero calls 200

    River: (2,180, 3 players) Q
    Hero checks, UTG bets 600, fold, Hero ???
  2. #2
    Renton's Avatar
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    Raising pre would be very bad vs utg limp. I think you can fold the flop.
  3. #3
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    At the time i didn't contemplate a pfr, only after reviewing the hand (and having hindsight of knowing villains hand) i thought i could of maybe started stronger. My line of thinking was, that small bet on the flop, i could well be ahead so i didn't consider folding there. Something i need to address maybe? If i don't flop it, i'm done with it type approach in this situation.
    Last edited by Lufc86; 01-10-2014 at 07:06 PM.
  4. #4
    Renton's Avatar
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    Nah its just a paired board so you'll be playing the board like 22% of the time by the river. So you're drawing very slim if someone has a pair, and even when you're ahead you get counterfeit 22% and sucked out another 25%. Your hand just sucks, its not even worth 200 chips.
  5. #5
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    Thanks for the reply. Noob question here but, could you please explain how you came to those %'s? I'm using poker tracker 4, could that help me learn these or is just simple math?
  6. #6
    Renton's Avatar
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    22 plays the board whenever a 6 comes on the turn or you get a running pair on the board. A rule of thumb for percentages in poker is to multiple the number of outs by 2 per card to come. So you have three 6's (about 6%) on the turn plus three 6's and three 5's on the river (about 12%). So 22 was an overestimate, its closer to 18-20%. The chances of someone with like KT sucking out on you by the river is six outs * 4 = 24%, + a few more points for running straight.

    So at least 44% of the time, even when you're right, you lose the hand anyway.
  7. #7
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    That makes sense, given that there are 40 odd cards left in the deck. Simple but great to know, thanks!

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