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1/2 - I rly wanna bet this river

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  1. #1
    XTR1000's Avatar
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    Default 1/2 - I rly wanna bet this river

    Stationy villian who rarely ever bets.

    $1/$2 No Limit Holdem
    5 players
    Converted at weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($404.55)
    Hero ($328.30)
    BTN ($197.00)
    SB ($615.05)
    BB ($184.80)

    Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO
    1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5

    Flop: ($15, 2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $8, BB calls $8

    Turn: ($31, 2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $19, BB calls $19

    River: ($69, 2 players)
    BB checks
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  2. #2
    yea i'd bet this river too, 2/3PSB would be good.
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    Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
  3. #3
    "Stationy villian who rarely ever bets."

    = check it down. He has sucked out on you a lot on this board and he's not folding any of his two pairs, and obv. not folding his nine if he happens to have one. I'm all for value-bleeding stations, but I think this board has gotten out of control, and your hand is barely worth more than say KQ at this point.

    I would amend this though, if villain is really, REALLY stationy and loose (e.g. calling pre-flop with almost any two, calling down with almost any pair). In that case I might throw out a 1/2 pot bet just because he calls so much with bad hands, and I wouldn't feel as stupid when it turned out he had me beat.
  4. #4
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
    ^^^ yes. check.
    My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
  5. #5
    your raise sizes are retarded (too small). bet $12 on the flop and at least $24 on turn
  6. #6
    You're ahead way too much not to bet this. If he's a good folder than its close.
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  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
    You're ahead way too much not to bet this. If he's a good folder than its close.
    Hands that beat AA on this board: 68, 69, 79, 89, 99, T9, J9, Q9, K9, A9, QJ, QT, JT, J8, T8, JJ, TT, AK, QQ*, 66*, 88* (* = maybe less likely since even a station usually finds a raise with these)

    Hands that don't: A6, A8, K8, 78, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, KT, 77

    I'm leaving out a few hands I feel are improbable, but if you want to include them you are also ahead of 22-55 and K6 (of course if we're throwing those in we should also consider including a couple other garbage hands you are behind, like Q8, Q6, J6, T6). It's also worth pointing out that there are more aces in the 2nd group than the 1st, meaning those hands are less likely (since hero has two aces).

    The real problem to me is twofold: 1. the first bracket include a lot more hands; 2. a guy leaning toward station folds almost none of the winning hands, where he plausibly might fold a few of the losing ones (since several of them are really, really weak by the river) to a substantial value bet.

    I still say check. I'd be really curious to hear how this turned out, too, though I don't think I would change my mind.

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