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baudib
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01-08-2009, 06:38 AM
Post subject: TT vs. 100BB shove from tilting maniac
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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No HEM stats; I'm new to table and had stacked villain earlier when he CRAI on the turn with a flush draw (I had a trips and made a boat on river). Two hands after that, he open-shoved 100 BBs from CO when I was in BB.
What's my calling range here? I lean strongly toward calling always but I'm wondering if I should also call with, say, 77-99?
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG Hero ($130.85)
CO Satchurio ($168.70)
BTN Pestilence28 ($100.00)
SB Real_Things ($50.95)
BB VEGASNUTTZ ($178.65)
Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is UTG  
Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Real_Things goes all-in $50.95, 1 fold, Hero ??
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jimmy44
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Place where I can spew
Posts: 1,391
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I call here. Maybe also with 99.
77-88 I would drop them unless villain starts pushing more hands pre.
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XTR1000
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Location: surfing in a room
Posts: 2,188
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At this point Im calling JJ+, AK. I may consider opening to 88+ AQs+ when he´s doing it two or three times more, but at the beginning of a session I usually avoid marginal spots in big pots, to prevent me from getting mad.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
xtr stand for exotic tranny retards
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yo
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jimmy44
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Place where I can spew
Posts: 1,391
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XTR1000
At this point Im calling JJ+, AK. I may consider opening to 88+ AQs+ when he´s doing it two or three times more, but at the beginning of a session I usually avoid marginal spots in big pots, to prevent me from getting mad.
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It's the 2nd time villain 3bet/pushed ... I don't think he is ever doing it with a premium ... he seems more to be on tilt than something else.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Call and don't sweat it. I was in a remarkably similar spot in a session a couple weeks ago and the guy showed down A8 - hit his ace, of course, but I was satisfied with my call. I'd probably call with 99 too.
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v diddy
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 24
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I would call here as well. Not sure about 99+ though.
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Toadstool
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 442
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I'd call, prob with 77+, If he has you beat I wouldn't really worry, your probably making the correct decision in the long run, given history.
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DA9ers
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Two Pair
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 48
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I got this line of reasoning from harrington on holdem...i absolutely love it and it works well for this situation
the possibilities are that he has 2 overs, an overpair, a hand like a7 where ur 73/30, an underpair or 2 unders. for argument's sake, we can rule out a7 type hands.
lets just assume that there's a 45% he has 2 overs...ur 55/45...55% of 45% about 25%
Assume there's a 10% chance he has an overpair. if he does, ur about a 4-1 dog. 20% winning in the situation he has an overpair is 2%.(20% of 10%)
lets say there's a 35% chance he has an underpair( we give a bigger percent to an underpair because there are just more of them than overs). We're a 4-1 favorite in this situation. 80% of 35% is 28%
and he says always leave 10% that he's bluffing with 2 unders and you are a about an 85% favorite in this situation. 85% of 10% is 8.5%
Now we add up the percentages 25%+2%+28%+8.5%= approx 63% equity in the hand. Now that we have these figures, we can just do a simple pot odds calculation to see if a call is the mathematically correct play. You have to put in another 49.45 to win a pot of 53.45. which is a little bit better than 1-1, say 1.2/1 ish. you could make this call if you were a bit less than a 50% favorite. Since you are a 63% favorite, a call here is mathematically the correct play. Of course you will never know the exact percentages that your opponent holds these exact hands, but you can estimate. it seems like a lot of work, but it becomes easier with practice
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,468
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TT is close I snap with JJ
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"the world def needs more bikeses"
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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I'm more inclined to call with 88-99 than AQ.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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XTR1000
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Location: surfing in a room
Posts: 2,188
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jimmy44
Quote:
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Originally Posted by XTR1000
At this point Im calling JJ+, AK. I may consider opening to 88+ AQs+ when he´s doing it two or three times more, but at the beginning of a session I usually avoid marginal spots in big pots, to prevent me from getting mad.
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It's the 2nd time villain 3bet/pushed ... I don't think he is ever doing it with a premium ... he seems more to be on tilt than something else. |
Ya, but it´s close no matter what, even if he´s tilting we´re only slightly ahead of {88+, A8s+, QJs+, AJo+, KJo}. Definetly not a bad call, I was just saying that pitching ~0ev hands like this is cool, when losing may affect my play for the session.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
xtr stand for exotic tranny retards
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yo
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BigPapi
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Rotterdam, Holland
Posts: 437
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uhm, the first hand is a postflop push right? so this is actually the first hand we see him do this preflop? You hadnt been around an orbit yet?
It's a high variance play to call here. If you think he's doing it light TT would definitely be in my calling range, 99 as well (the lower we go, the less Ax hands we're in front off and the more we're flipping with. also more overpairs off course). I just usually prefer to see more before I make assumptions he's shoving light.
Going allin with the mid/lower pp's I would rather do when I am the one shoving, because the fold equity adds towards your hands equity to make it profitable. now it's marginal and high variance imo.
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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No, he had open-shoved preflop a few hands earlier.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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BigPapi
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Rotterdam, Holland
Posts: 437
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ok, I think I call TT/99. I'd rather have AQ here then 88, since AQ is dominated by less hands. 88 is flipping against a lot and not dominating too many hands, while AQ is pretty far ahead of any other lower ace. Still 88 might be profitable in the long run, don't know the exact math there
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