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freechus9
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08-17-2008, 11:11 PM
Post subject: trips in deep pot
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: IN UR BOX HAXXING UR FILEZ
Posts: 1,000
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villain is your run of the mill tag with the usual set of plays. i think i am beat here but can i ever fold? hes running 20/18/3.2
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
SB ($167.95)
BB ($91.50)
UTG ($31.05)
Hero ($128.95)
Button ($91.70)
Preflop: Hero is MP with A , Q .
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2.
Flop: ($9) A , 6, A (3 players)
SB bets $5, BB folds, Hero raises to $20, SB calls $15.
Turn: ($49) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $30, SB calls $30.
River: ($109) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $114.95 (All-In)
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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that is such a bizarre line for him to take. i probably talk myself into a call and hate life because of it. i dont think hes ever bluffing, and i think his value range is likely better than your hand since he is seemingly a thinking player. its probably a fold.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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i dont think i could fold here. there's no way he has a flush, he would have had to call the flop w/ 6xcc ??? I don't think so.
AJ/A3/A6/66 obviously the only hands you can be concerned about, and the way he played it, he's repping exactly A3. I just don't give someone that much credit, plus this hand is at the very very top of my double barreling range on this board, so I'd call and wouldn't feel particularly unhappy about it.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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also, fwiw, i woulda bet way bigger on the turn, if he's calling 30, he's calling 40-45, so might as well make your value bets larger in this spot. If you were bluffing I like the 30. This is only because of stack sizes though, plus it makes the river an easier decision, or an easier shove on your part since it's no longer an overbet.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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god such a funny hand
i think i hate life and fold
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Genitruc
god such a funny hand
i think i hate life and fold
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This
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,339
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Am I too optimistic?
Board: Ac 6d As Jc 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.917% 41.67% 06.25% 10 1.50 { AdQh }
Hand 1: 52.083% 45.83% 06.25% 11 1.50 { JJ, 66, AQs-A2s, AQo-ATo }
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bair
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 953
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this is a pretty easy fold. you obviously have an ace. fnord your Ax range is fathoms too wide. more like AQ, AJ, A3, and he obviously cant have a flush w/ the ace. you beat absolutely nothing except bluffs. he definitely has 66 or AJ and is hoping to god you think he is bluffing the flush.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,339
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I see too much weird ass shit at showdown because I don't fold these spots to think his range is that tight.
Given how aggro things can get I think Freechus9's range is wider than Ax/66/JJ. He's bruffing here some % of the time.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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if he were the bb this would be a much tougher spot as he is calling with so many more AXs combos, but as his he doesnt know bb is going to come along, so i doubt he shows up with Ax often at all, and if he does hes not going to essentially turn it into a bluff.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,339
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20/18 is a pretty tight split. What does his SB flat range look like?
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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id fold w/out too much thought
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
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freechus9
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: IN UR BOX HAXXING UR FILEZ
Posts: 1,000
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bair
this is a pretty easy fold. you obviously have an ace. fnord your Ax range is fathoms too wide. more like AQ, AJ, A3, and he obviously cant have a flush w/ the ace. you beat absolutely nothing except bluffs. he definitely has 66 or AJ and is hoping to god you think he is bluffing the flush.
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agree 100%
fnord he folds to a steal from the sb 85%.
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My sig is too much for you to handle.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I have a sinking feeling here. I think I'd fold it. It's a tough spot, but I just can't see him having worse than a boat. Your hand is almost face-up.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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I'd insta fold this. Well maybe not insta, but yah I'd fold.
Our hand can't possibly look more like an A here, so unless he's wild and would try to somehow get us to fold an A, I think this is a fold.
I mean, he bet/calls a big raise on a super dry flop, so he clearly has at least an A here. I don't see why a worse A would turn itself into a bluff here.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Why would anyone ever think they could make you fold trips here
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
id fold w/out too much thought
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This guy wins a lot of money.
Against a fish I snap tho.
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pankfish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
Posts: 385
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Why did you raise the flop if you don't want to play for stacks? I really don't see why you raise this flop for anyway. I guess to get worse aces to shove?
There is no way you are ahead on the river, nobody is trying to bluff you off of trips.
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<Staxalax> I want everyone to put my quote in their sigs
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pankfish
Why did you raise the flop if you don't want to play for stacks? I really don't see why you raise this flop for anyway. I guess to get worse aces to shove?
There is no way you are ahead on the river, nobody is trying to bluff you off of trips.
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uhh we did want to play for stacks. but we dont want to do it by calling some weird ass donk jam when the backdoor flush completes.
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pankfish
Why did you raise the flop if you don't want to play for stacks? I really don't see why you raise this flop for anyway. I guess to get worse aces to shove?
There is no way you are ahead on the river, nobody is trying to bluff you off of trips.
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He raises the flop as he indeed wants to play for stacks at this point as he has the best hand nearly everytime, and villain isnt folding any ax hands and hero wants to get max value from those hands that he currently beats. He bets the turn for the same reason (though id bet a little larger). This earlier aggression sets up for a value shove/bet on the river when checked to but once villain shows extreme strength shoving oop we can safely assume we are beat and fold.
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pankfish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
Posts: 385
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I doubt sb is donking the flop with an ace. How many aces does he call with from the small blind? AT-AQ? I don't think raising flop is all that great because we just owned the flop and it's going to be hard for most of his range to continue vs pressure. On the turn he probably folds 88-TT, so the only hand left that we beat is AT so I don't see why that is a fist pump bet either.
There is no way he is shoving AT on the river though, so now you know your beat.
Don't take offense if this post is retarded.
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<Staxalax> I want everyone to put my quote in their sigs
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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this hand is waaaay more interesting if there is no flush on board
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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so you think he bet/calls the flop with like 6c7c Dean?
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
so you think he bet/calls the flop with like 6c7c Dean?
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i would be amazed if he b/c 67s oop on that flop.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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I think the backdoor flush is irrelevant since the Ac is on board, and it's unlikely he continues without having at least an ace after the flop raise.
This is probably a trivial fold since his hand is fairly well-defined by the river, and he isn't likely to effectively turn the weaker hands (which all have solid showdown value) in his range into bluffs when you're showing this much strength.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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this hand is actually kind of funny cause its the type of hand where i think oh well he could possibly have like Ax, so i should call. when in reality i lose like every time.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
so you think he bet/calls the flop with like 6c7c Dean?
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i would be amazed if he b/c 67s oop on that flop. |
So I guess what Dean was getting at is that he doesn't feel villain will do this w/o a boat because of the presence of the 3flush.
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