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TPgk facing psb shove on river

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apunisher

07-13-2007, 08:34 PM Post subject: TPgk facing psb shove on river

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 398

Villain is 50/25/1 over 80 some hands.

We do have a history. I called his button raise from bb with KTs, and c/r the flop with air, picked up an oesd and doubled barreled, and c/c river when i hit str8 and we split.

He has also picked off another one of my cbets, and i did call a couple small bets on turn and river with a midpp and he had tp.

so given this, i am pretty sure he views me as crazy/aggro and spewy. River i am getting 2:1 with tpgk, but [censored] were deep and these overbets always seem to be strong hands. But the fd did miss, and he might be shoving some random weaker pair as a bluff. However, his shove could just as easily be Ax with x being on the board as well as sets or even AK.

To make a long story short, do you make this call???
Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $61.65
UTG+1: $177.92
CO: $17.40
Hero: $95.75
SB: $63.05
BB: $50.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Ah Qc
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $1.5, CO folds, Hero raises to $5.5, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 2c Ad 9d ($11.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $9, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 4c ($29.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $18, UTG+1 calls.

River: 6h ($65.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 is all-in $145.42.

sry converter messed up hh

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mixchange

07-13-2007, 10:10 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Oct 2006

Location: San Francisco, CA

Posts: 1,665

I think he either missed his FD or spiked 2p. His bluff would have to work over 55% of the time to be EV+, so it would be pretty balsy.

I think this is a fold. Based on how he played the hand, his line may look like a missed FD, therefore he might be trying to bluff a bluff after missing his FD but hitting yahtzee anyuway with 35d ;p but I don't know if he can count on you thinking at that level or if he is. The reason I fold is because this river line to me is more commonly someone looking to get paid, fearing you will check behind. It would be a reckless bluff considering you only have a PSB left and he has shown zero strength. Nitty fold, but if he is bluffing he'll probably try it again in a spot where you really have the goods. Kind of the Matusow effect.

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TPgk facing psb shove on river

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