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kapilalink
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05-08-2008, 05:36 AM
Post subject: tough spot vs. reg
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 61
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opp is running 16/14/4.6
Is my turn bet too small here and should I bet river? Call shove?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Hero ($224.20)
MP ($42)
CO ($230.30)
Button ($250.40)
SB ($219.55)
BB ($258.85)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A , J.
Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, Button calls $7, 2 folds.
Flop: ($17) T, 4 , 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, Button calls $12.
Turn: ($41) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $28, Button calls $28.
River: ($97) J (2 players)
Hero bets $50, Button raises to $203.4 (All-In), Final Pot: $451.40
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
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i think you see 89 a lot, JT and sets. do you have any other reads than stats? this is a pretty easy fold as played.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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Fnord
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Moderator
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What do you think he has?
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kapilalink
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 61
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
i think you see 89 a lot, JT and sets. do you have any other reads than stats? this is a pretty easy fold as played.
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no other reads. I didn't even think of 89 though. That makes it easier. As for a set, do you think a reg commonly slowplays two streets like that?
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Alexos
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Join Date: Aug 2006
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played fine, and easy river b/f
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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Fnord
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kapilalink
16/14/4.6
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
i think you see 89 a lot, JT
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LOL
edit: LOL again at a guy with a 4.6 AF calling this airball flop with 8+ good outs the once in a blue moon all 8 tables are so card dead that he calls a non-pair.
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will641
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by kapilalink
16/14/4.6
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
i think you see 89 a lot, JT
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LOL |
you think a 16/14 is incapable of calling with sc's otb? i dont understand.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
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and yeah, i wouldnt expect him to play a set like that, but its a pretty dry board, so he might. i mean, it could be complete air, but i reallllllly doubt it.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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Fnord
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
you think a 16/14 is incapable of calling with sc's otb? i dont understand.
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16 - 14 = 2.
Do the math.
His range here is pairs, pairs, pairs, more pairs, yet more pairs and once a blue moon somthing suited and connected.
The river bet against this guy is pure hatred of money.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
you think a 16/14 is incapable of calling with sc's otb? i dont understand.
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16 - 14 = 2.
Do the math. |
i never learned arithmetic. wanna explain what that is supposed to mean?
30 - 28 = 2 also.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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Fnord
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Alright, with less sarcasm this time.
He's almost too tight for 6max and is in love with his bet/raise button when he's not folding.
You probably have kinda TAggy stats and raise UTG, he just calls on the button. Lets just assume he's got a pair right there because just about everything else raises or folds. It's what he does.
Flop is all air. He either has a set or a small/medium pair. If he sucks at poker, you bet and he doesn't put up a fight when he misses. Insta-profit. If he's more aware, you're going to get some grief and can't just auto-bet there every time and need to balance out your bets with some checks and just let the Wookie win sometimes because he plays tight has position and the pot is small.
Ok, he calls. He could be pot controling with a medium pair (again, not really his style) or letting you spew off because he has a set. It really comes down to how often he fights back.
Turn is a total blank and you fire again. If he's not playing without a set very often you just made a pretty big fuck up. If he's floating around, meh, maybe he puts you on TT+ now and gives it up. Again he calls. Alarm bells should be going off here. Curious line if he has a set, but all we have to work here is chow/chow/meow and not much actionable post-flop information.
River gives us TPTK. Checking is +EV because he'll sometimes just check behind pairs expected to see like a busted AK here. Betting won't fold a better hand, will sometimes induce a bluff we can't call and rarely get called by a worse hand. He's just not a call it down type and 3 barrels from you probably means something.
The moral of the story is: Don't pick marginal hands out of position to get into big pots with players who are almost absurdly tight and aggressive.
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will641
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+4 on analysis.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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kapilalink
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Join Date: Jan 2008
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
+4 on analysis.
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I concur
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minSim
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Flop is all air. He either has a set or a small/medium pair. If he sucks at poker, you bet and he doesn't put up a fight when he misses. Insta-profit. If he's more aware, you're going to get some grief and can't just auto-bet there every time and need to balance out your bets with some checks and just let the Wookie win sometimes because he plays tight has position and the pot is small.
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Definately agree, but like to add that I like a c-bet more often than not if it's with the intention of betting more turns than the ones we are hitting. If he is raising flop light your c/f frequency goes up ofcourse, but villains high AF certainly partly comes from him almost always having the initiative postflop, so it isn't a 100% indication he'll raise flop light.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Turn is a total blank and you fire again. If he's not playing without a set very often you just made a pretty big fuck up. If he's floating around, meh, maybe he puts you on TT+ now and gives it up. Again he calls. Alarm bells should be going off here. Curious line if he has a set, but all we have to work here is chow/chow/meow and not much actionable post-flop information.
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Turn to me is the most interesting street because of the FD.
Betting isn't great because we have very little FE and really don't want to get raised.
Checking gives the pot controll to villain, which hurts us quite bad in this spot. To a large bet we likely have to fold, assuming villain doesn't have air here often. But there's also a chance it checks through, which is great...and we can c/c the smaller bets.
My conclusion is I probably c/c or c/f depending on betsizing, and I probably call up to 3/4PSB.
If villains range was a bit wider and I knew he floats some, I bet more and might consider a c/r the wider it gets.
I actually don't know what to think of hero's play with his betsizing. I think your range is so much overpairs here, that villain can raise you small with his good cards to expect a call...and you have to call with your FD, so he's valuetowning you.
On the other hand, villain might think you'll fold your overpairs to his raise, so he'll only call you...which is ofcourse great since you bought a cheap river card.
(note: against a wider range I think the small bet get's bluff raised too often, but against this villain it might be very good)
As played, river is a c/c or c/f depending on betsize for me, but definately mostly c/f.
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Fnord
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Yeah, I like a turn c/c.
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c-luvin
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 159
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anyone else think the 1/2 pot river bet is just giving him a green light to shove? i think i bet 75 and fold to a shove because he is rarely gunna bluff that bet and might get stubborn with a 10 that claims triple barrell.
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Alexos
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I really doubt he's bluff shoving that river ever
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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c-luvin
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2007
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whats a good reason to bet 50 rather than 75?
we can go from "really doubting" that hes shoving the river as a bluff to being almost positive that he wont bluff us.
i think he had 78ss and he took us off our hand on the river cuz we didn't bet enough.
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Galapogos
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kapilalink
Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
+4 on analysis.
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I concur |
qft
Thanks for that Fnord.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
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Fnord - good analysis on that kind of a player
Though I think you're definitely skewing his range way stronger than it could be in this spot.
How would you play AA here if you were hero? If you're so convinced that his call down means he has a set or something that strong? Are you actually c/f any street?
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Fnord
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Are you actually c/f any street?
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The flop if he's good.
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nutsinho
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Are you actually c/f any street?
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The flop if he's good. |
qft, cbetting this vs a 16/14 is 
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Are you actually c/f any street?
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The flop if he's good. |
qft, cbetting this vs a 16/14 is |
Umm.. maybe you guys missed the part where I said, how would you play AA if you were hero?
Hopefully not c/f flop 
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nutsinho
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LOL. yeah im usually just top set mining when i have aces. sorry
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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Fnord
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
how would you play AA if you were hero?
Hopefully not c/f flop |
No, but checking to a betting station sure is a lot of fun.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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Quote:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Are you actually c/f any street?
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The flop if he's good. |
qft, cbetting this vs a 16/14 is |
?????????
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Check flop or double barrel like you did is fine. Betting flop and checking turn makes no sense. If you check flop and he checks behind double barrel nearly everytime.
River id bet more as well.
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minSim
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Check flop or double barrel like you did is fine. Betting flop and checking turn makes no sense. If you check flop and he checks behind double barrel nearly everytime.
River id bet more as well.
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Could you please eleborate.
Is hero's hand face up when we c-bet - check turn?
What do you expect to be villains turn range / turn betting range when checked to?
Imo villain checks some made T's, 88/99, no?
Isn't one of the main reasons we don't want to bet that villains range is strong, so we don't want to get raised and have to call? What's wrong with a c/c on the turn, expecting to get paid decently because if villains strong range?
If we bet turn, what rivers are we betting?
What raise sizes are we calling, and what's the river plan?
(apologies for the shitload of questions, but it's a fairly common situation where I think a lot of us lower stakes players don't know what to do for which reasons)
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Kits
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Australia
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Galapogos
Quote:
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Originally Posted by kapilalink
Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
+4 on analysis.
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I concur |
qft
Thanks for that Fnord. |
Nice work Fnord.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Check flop or double barrel like you did is fine. Betting flop and checking turn makes no sense. If you check flop and he checks behind double barrel nearly everytime.
River id bet more as well.
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Could you please eleborate.
Is hero's hand face up when we c-bet - check turn?
What do you expect to be villains turn range / turn betting range when checked to?
Imo villain checks some made T's, 88/99, no?
Isn't one of the main reasons we don't want to bet that villains range is strong, so we don't want to get raised and have to call? What's wrong with a c/c on the turn, expecting to get paid decently because if villains strong range?
If we bet turn, what rivers are we betting?
What raise sizes are we calling, and what's the river plan?
(apologies for the shitload of questions, but it's a fairly common situation where I think a lot of us lower stakes players don't know what to do for which reasons) |
Villains range is pretty much exclusively pocket pairs and some sc's, most of which hit a pair. He surely isn't folding any pair to one bet.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
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i really hate your new avatar danny. plz change it back. wat was it before your maharishi one again?
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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c-luvin
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 159
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hah i was just gunna say danny it looks like max that time we gave him a mohawk
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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It expresses my hate for 2p2 poster EC10 who is really annoyingly stupid.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by c-luvin
hah i was just gunna say danny it looks like max that time we gave him a mohawk
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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even if he isn't folding much, our betting range still needs an air %, albeit a small one, and hands like this are perfect.
Also, i firmly believe that we'll come out ahead vs a lot of the pairs in his range by betting the flop with overs and backdoor nfd.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
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did we ever get the results?
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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