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Tough spot with tptk, nut flush draw (100nl)

  
 
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snowbird4life
Old 06-17-2007, 01:02 AM     Post subject: Tough spot with tptk, nut flush draw (100nl) #1 (permalink)  
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What would you have done here? marmstr1 is running 42/12/1.85 leila is running 21/8/1 but it is a small sample size of about 30 hands for both of them so take it with a grain of salt and from what ive been seeing, theyre both pretty reckless and bad.

Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007-06-16 18:42:38
Table 'Caledonia (max 6)' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: rocket54 ($200.25)
Seat 2: Laila78 ($200.50)
Seat 3: marmstr1 ($75.27)
Seat 4: Carlos36 ($135.75)
Seat 5: captivate ($175.49)
Seat 6: Hero ($111.50)
------------------------------
NEW HAND
marmstr1: posts the small blind $0.50
Carlos36: posts the big blind $1.00
--- DEALING POCKETS
Hero is dealt [Jc,As]
captivate: folds
Hero: raises $3.00 to $4.00
rocket54: calls $4.00
Laila78: calls $4.00
marmstr1: calls $3.50
Carlos36: folds
--- DEALING FLOP [5s,2s,Js]
marmstr1: checks
Hero: bets $12.50
rocket54: folds
Laila78: goes all in $196.50
marmstr1: goes all in $71.27
Hero:...???
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 06-17-2007, 02:05 AM #2 (permalink)  
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interesting hand.
i'm gonna say cry and push...

ok, now that i've made my decision, let's see if i'm right. wooohoo, me so smart...

Code:
Hand 0: 	32.691%  	32.69% 	00.00% 	          8856 	        0.00   { AsJc }
Hand 1: 	33.654%  	33.65% 	00.00% 	          9117 	        0.00   { JJ, 55, 22 }
Hand 2: 	33.654%  	33.65% 	00.00% 	          9117 	        0.00   { JJ, 55, 22 }

Hand 0: 	30.265%  	30.27% 	00.00% 	         38808 	        0.00   { AsJc }
Hand 1: 	21.326%  	21.33% 	00.00% 	         27345 	        0.00   { JJ, 55, 22, 43s, 43o }
Hand 2: 	48.409%  	48.41% 	00.00% 	         62073 	        0.00   { JJ, 55, 22 }
the key to this hand was because there are 2 guys all in already, so you're pretty much getting 2:1 odds, so anywhere around 33% is breaking even. worst case scenario appears to hover around 30%.
 
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I Like Pie
Old 06-17-2007, 06:43 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I have to fold. You are up against a set for sure.
You have to hope to hit your flush without someone boating up.
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minSim
Old 06-17-2007, 10:27 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Call because of your stack size and the 3-way pot being big.
Just notice that you don't have 9 outs for your flush draw because someone could already have the flush, or being on a draw like you.
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jackvance
Old 06-17-2007, 10:33 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
the key to this hand was because there are 2 guys all in already, so you're pretty much getting 2:1 odds, so anywhere around 33% is breaking even. worst case scenario appears to hover around 30%.
You don't have odds to call actually.. worst case scenario, which is also rather likely:

villain 1: KsQs (made flush)
villain 2: 22 (any set)

your equity: 25%
Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
 
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minSim
Old 06-17-2007, 10:39 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Because of stack sizes your offered 1:3
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biondino
Old 06-17-2007, 11:06 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Jack's right, you have to put a made flush into their ranges too, which takes away your outs.
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minSim
Old 06-17-2007, 11:49 AM #8 (permalink)  
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I don't expect villain 1 to have a flush, because he wouldn't push the flop this hard imo...he could have a set though, or JKs.
Villain 2 could have a made flush, draw, set, hell maybe even top pair.

I expect hero to have 7 clean outs, with 1:3 pot odds thats a call...even 6 would be enough.
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Geanosssss
Old 06-17-2007, 01:21 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Laila has set of fives
marmstr has Q high flush

fold! pie is right u ent even got 9 outs, its lookin more like 5 or 6. nd u definitely dont have the best hand now..ur top pair is worthless now nd it will b after the river (unless u can catch runnin quads..u b lucky).

u have to hit ur flush 2 win nd ur not gettin the odds to do so.
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zenbitz
Old 06-17-2007, 05:29 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I find it hard to fold this vs. 2 donks. Not saying it's a call - but people can get spewy with stuff like TTs on this board.
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sauce123
Old 06-17-2007, 06:04 PM #11 (permalink)  
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this sucks real bad tho the fact that u have a jack is actually negative because it means there are less jacks out and one of ur opp is less likely to be overplaying QsJx or something
I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
 
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sejje
Old 06-17-2007, 06:15 PM #12 (permalink)  
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If your read is right and they're spewy idiots, I'm sticking my money in. I think the hand we're most worried about is the shorty.
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snowbird4life
Old 06-17-2007, 10:21 PM #13 (permalink)  
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heh interesting results, i still think they are both spewy donks from playing with them later but still, here are the results: :


Hero: goes all in $95.00
$89.00 is not called, return back to Laila78:
Laila78: shows [7s,4s], a Flush
marmstr1: shows [Qs,9s], a Flush
--- DEALING TURN [2h]
--- DEALING RIVER [Ac]
Hero: shows [Jc,As], Two Pair, Aces and Jacks
Laila78: shows [7s,4s], a Flush
marmstr1: shows [Qs,9s], a Flush
Hand 763247729:
Laila78: wins side pot($71.74)
with a Flush
Hand 763247729:
marmstr1: wins main pot($228.53)
with a Flush

maybe im being results oriented but upon reflection, out of the moment although it is tempting, i think this is a fold, as we are clearly dead to a spade, and theres a good chance they are holding some of our outs.

Edit: sp
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gabe
Old 06-18-2007, 01:48 AM #14 (permalink)  
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id call, your hand is sweet and lots of money in pot
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minSim
Old 06-18-2007, 08:24 AM #15 (permalink)  
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You are results oriented, beeing op against 2 flopped fushes happens about never.
I'm still not convinced villain doesn't have at least 6 clean outs, which makes this a pretty easy call.
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jackvance
Old 06-18-2007, 03:50 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minSim
You are results oriented, beeing op against 2 flopped fushes happens about never.
I'm still not convinced villain doesn't have at least 6 clean outs, which makes this a pretty easy call.
Equity against 2 flushes or against flush + set is exactly the same, 24.5%.

total pot to win if we call is: 17 (preflop) + 71,27 (marmstr) + 107,5 (laila) + 107,5 (you) = 303,27

you have to call 95 to win this pot, or 95/303.27=31.3%

(to avoid confusion since I'm using percentages, the other way to calculate this would be: chance to win is 1:3, and pot odds are 95:208,27= 1:2.2)

So you do not have odds to call vs 2xflush or flush+set.
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minSim
Old 06-19-2007, 07:28 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Imo this isn't ALWAYS 2 made flushes or made flush + set. KsJ, QQs, AJ? could be in it, shorty could have even more.
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