Poker Forum

Over 1,247,000 Posts!

REGISTER
Subscribe to FTR web feed
Already Registered?      Username:    Password:   Remember      Forgot Password

Poker Forum

  > 

Short-Handed NL Hold'em

  > 

Snap call a bluff analysis

  
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Irisheyes
Old 02-16-2008, 05:20 PM     Post subject: Snap call a bluff analysis #1 (permalink)  
Irisheyes's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
Irisheyes
This is an x-post from my blog.

Villain is 24/14/3.3 Reg. I want to analyze the river to see if I should call given that it's such a great card for him to bluff.

$2.5/$5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($462.50)
UTG+1 ($500.00)
CO ($709.75)
BTN ($530.00)
Hero ($455.00)
BB ($500.00)

Pre-flop: ($7.5, 6 players) Hero is SB
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $17.5, 2 folds, Hero calls $15, 1 fold

Flop: ($40, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($88, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

River: ($88, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $54, $54 to Hero ($413.5)?

Ok so I need to have the best hand 27.5% of the time to make a good call given his bet size. I'm going to give him a preflop raising and cbetting range of
Code:
22+,A7s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,ATo+,KTo+,QJo
I'm going to assume he bets the turn with all his Queens and full houses and that he checks behind on the river with 99/TT/JJ/KK because he has showdown value. So thins makes his river betting range something like this
Code:
AA,66-22,AKs,AJs-A7s,KJs-KTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AKo,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo
against which I actaully have 57% equity and it's a pretty clear call. Even if I take away a ton of his bluffs and give him a tighter river betting range of only
Code:
AA,AKs,AJs-A7s,KJs-KTs,AKo,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo
which is 1/3 less bluffing combinations than the first range I should still call with 33% equity. Actually it turns out that I should still make the call with pairs as low as 22 as far as I can figure out no matter which range I give him.

Does this look correct to everyone?
Reply With Quote

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
IowaSkinsFan
Old 02-16-2008, 05:48 PM #2 (permalink)  
IowaSkinsFan's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
IowaSkinsFan will become famous soon enoughIowaSkinsFan will become famous soon enough
 Yes it looks somewhat correct and i agree to call. Timing is pretty important here too. Much more likely its a bluff if he bets quickly.
Check out the new blog!!!
 
Reply With Quote
Reply
Latest Poker News
Bbickes Old 06-02-2012, 08:10 PM    Merge Network 6.0 Looks to Retain Current Player Base
In an effort to perhaps keep players from moving to the new Revolution Network setup by the former Lock Poker, Merge Network has taken drastic steps to respond to their player base's requests to impro ...

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT. The time now is 10:09 PM.

Contact Us - Archive - Top

FTR Testimonials

All content
© FlopTurnRiver.com 		Advertising  |   Partners  |   Testimonials  |   T&C  |   Contact Us  |   FTR News & Press  |   Site Map  |   Search FTR

Full Tilt  |   Titan Poker  |   UltimateBet  |   Poker Stars  |   Ladbrokes Bonus  |   Sportsbook  |   Cake Poker  

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum
This is not a gambling website.