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Vi-Zer0Skill

08-01-2009, 12:06 PM Post subject: small pot situation 50NL

#1 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

the situation is when we have a good but not great draw in position after raising preflop, facing a flop lead.

BB is playing bad and aggressive, but not crazy.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($38)
UTG ($19.10)
MP ($24.45)
Hero (CO) ($51.95)
Button ($56.50)
SB ($53.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A

, 9

2 folds, Hero bets $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 2

, 5

, J

(2 players)
BB bets $2

in the actual hand i raised, BB called and lead a blank turn (i folded). after studying this hand i think now a call may have been the better play.

there are way too many questions to ask to write them all, but here are the basic ones...

1). what range does BB lead this flop with? what range would he call a raise with?

BB will lead hands like 2x/5x, Jx and better, draws, and air. His calling range to a raise only changes slightly, since i expect him to fold only his weak draws and air.

2). how much fold equity does my flop raise have?

a bad player will rarely part with a pair on the flop, so at best i likely get him to only fold his air and occasionally 2x. so anywhere from 15-33%, but essentially my F.E. will almost never be enough on it's own to make raising profitable.

3). how much equity will my hand have on the turn?

this is the important part of this hand that i overlooked while i was playing. my equity is VERY dependent on what the turn card is going to be. if it's an 8c and both my backdoor draws brick then i have only three Ace outs - a little more than 6%. however if the turn is a spade then i have 12 outs (25%), or 7 outs (15%) when the turn is a 3 or 4. the turn is 'good' for us about 40% of the time.

when BB leads and we just call, now we are also playing against his air and weak draws. if we miss on the turn we can confidently fold, knowing we are behind his range and have very little equity to make bluffing an option. the times we do see a nice turn and BB leads, depending on our reads we could raise the turn. i think it would be a VERRY profitable play if he leads the turn with a similar range that he lead the flop with, because...

A. bad players can be expected to fold a pair of 2's or 5's on the turn
B. his 3bet/shoving frequency is going to be low because his turn lead range is probably wide. he'll probably only do this with a set.
C. With Jx or other weaker made hands, he'll usually just call the turn raise and check the river. this puts us in a great position to shove the river when we complete or feel a bluff attempt could be successful.

i'm gonna go back to bed

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oskar

08-01-2009, 01:55 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2008

Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz

Posts: 2,452

Donking frequency is kind of important... but without reads I'd always raise to 8. When I get called I make a note that he will halfdonk/call even if the hand doesn't go to showdown.
I think you have massive fold equity against the average vilain who will donk bet this size.

The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.

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