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biondino
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03-01-2007, 10:04 AM
Post subject: Simple question: is this optimal?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
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Apologies for no proper HH, am writing this at work.
Villain is fairly strong, very taggy for 6max £50NL (stats of 18/12 or so) and has a big stack that covers mine (I have 160BBs). He hasn't played a lot of hands but when he has, he's shown down strong.
Villain open limps in the CO; I am in the BB with 52o and check.
Flop is 557 rainbow. I check, he bets 5x BB (which is 2 x pot) and I call.
Turn is 2, giving me my boat. I check again, he bets £7 (pot-size) and I raise to £17. He calls.
River is A. I push for a further £58 (into a £38 pot).
Can you let me know what you think of each street, especially the river?
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
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Also, can you put villain on a range of hands?
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
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You're stacking off to 57, 77, AA, and A5 here once you hit your boat, the only thing is you should have raised more on turn if you put him on strong hand. Then, your massive overbet is only going to get called by a better boat if villain is a tag. Either way, if its boat over boat, there's nothing you can do.
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
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I think we can take 57 out of the equation, and AA? It's possible (though unlikely given his flop bet - and I'm fairly sure this guy would raise PF with it) and I think if he has it we pay it off with good grace. 77 and A5 are the only real concerns. So I guess my main river question is - do enough hands call my push that I beat? Should I be betting for value instead? I don't think I can try a second check/raise here.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by biondino
do enough hands call my push that I beat? Should I be betting for value instead?
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No, yes.
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nutsinho
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I would bet 26 on riv for reasons mentioned above
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
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And call a push I assume?
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
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yep
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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Anosmic
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Meh. He likes his hand. Push seems fine. You made an unexpected monster on the turn.
I'm disinclined to put villain on PPs given your read and the style of these tables.
7x seems less likely if villain is solid given your re-raise.
A 5x seems a strong possibility in which case you need to get the chips in once the 2 falls.
Turn raise is a bit weak, you' could have made it easier to get it in on the river.
My advice. Get dealt better rivers. k?
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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You're not ahead here a whole lot.
Most of the time, villain either has 77755 or AA555. Sometimes he'll show up with a 56s hand.
It's a cooler, but I think it's a slightly -ev push that only gets called when beaten. A good tagg (even at nl50 ; trust me, I have nl100 and lower friends that can laydown 56s here in a heartbeat vs what I presume is HERO's snuggly-tight image) can fold non-boat 5x hands here a lot.
The A is a bad card for you. I would check-call this river, weak as that seems. If you're absolutely looking to get the money in here, then a c/r seems optimal on the river since it will commit villain to the pot once he bets with hands that you're beating.
edit : I suggest you c/r river (if stacks getting in is what you want here) because once you check, almost 100% of 5-x hands (whether you're beat or not) will bet. And he's value-betting anything that he calls a push with. So the odd time that he does have a weaker hand than he seems to have (although I can't think of any... does this playing really limp 88 from LP and overbet the pot with it?), we're not losing value by checking (since he'll almost always fold those weakish hands to a river bet).
Also, I'm pretty sure villain folded...
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
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Genitruc, excellent answer, thank you.
As it happens, he called my push with A5. I have been thinking about this hand a lot, and although it's not the worst, and although I can argue justifications for my play, I simply didn't think it through enough at the time.
The only surprising factor here - apart from all 4 fives being in play by the flop - is that a good tagg would open-limp A5s from the CO. On the flop, a mid-pp seemed his most likely holding; on the turn, things become interesting - his call of my (too small) re-raise indicates he has a 5, a high PP, or 77 - not that I am fussed as I am considerably ahead of his range.
The river, though - it is the worst card for me, along with 7 perhaps. If he DOES have a 5, Can I put him on 56, 54, or K5s? And if I do put him on any of these, would he not fold to a push when there are obvious hands that beat him?
In the cold light of day, while A5 is probably the single most likely hand for him to be holding - K5 and 77 come next, I guess - I think I should have been cautious enough to make either a value bet or a check/call.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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Btw with stats os 18/12, because of the gap between his raise/call stats, it's very possible that he likes open-limping medium-strength hands from late position (i.e. SC's, suited aces and low PP's). Easy to say now though after you post results lol...
Very sick spot though.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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