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Shortie shoves, donk flats a 3b

  
 
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Old 05-04-2009, 11:53 PM     Post subject: Shortie shoves, donk flats a 3b #1 (permalink)  
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I think I'm about 50-50 with the shortie's range
he's a 20/20 shortie, the donk is like 33/17 or something, I just remember he had a large gap between vpip and pfr so I thought that his flat is not something I should be afraid of

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($104.80)
SB ($89)
BB ($127.95)
UTG ($113.50)
MP ($95.80)
CO ($20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 7
2 folds, CO bets $2, Hero raises to $9, 1 fold, BB calls $8, CO raises to $20 (All-In), Hero raises to $104.80 (All-In)

Is this a good move or is the big stack going to call too often? Even if the big stack folds I still need 33% equity against the short stack
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Pelion
Old 05-05-2009, 04:41 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I think youre being pretty optimistic about COs range here. His stats dont look too retarded, so he probably realises BB is committed if you fold. Id say youre likely up against something closer to 77+, AT+ with 35-40% equity.

Im kind of bored and its an interesting spot, so im going to try crunching some rough numbers. Im also pretty tired so this could go horribly wrong.

Start by assuming BB needs QQ+, AK to call.

When BB folds, you have 40% equity. 40% we win $37. 60% we lose $11. So thats an EV of +$8.20

When BB calls you have a sidepot of $60, with 20% equity. We get back an average of $12, and we put in $11. Thats an EV of +$1.

We also have a further main pot of $170 with 35% equity, of which we put in $85. We will end up with $59.50 on average so thats an EV of -$25.50 from the main pot when the BB calls.

So comparing our EVs when the BB folds (+8.20) and when he calls (-$24.50), the BB should fold at least 3 times as often as he calls to make this shove profitable. AK/QQ+ is 2.5% of hands, so he needs to have cold called with 10% of hands, for this shove to be profitable. If you add in more hands to his shove calling range, e.g. AQ/JJ, your equity only increases slighty, but the range you need him to fold increases 3 times faster. Your equity doesnt go above 40% until his calling range is huge.

In Conclusion: He has to be cold calling the 3bet pretty loose (all pairs + some suited aces or SCs), and then calling the shove uncharacteristically tight for this to be profitable.
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Old 05-05-2009, 06:26 AM #3 (permalink)  
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You're right about the CO's range, I thought it would be like 22+, but I think that he could probably recognize that his equity is below his pot odds
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dev
Old 05-05-2009, 09:16 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Unless the shorty is really, really bad, this is a clear fold.
Check out my self-deprecation here!
 
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