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meeloche
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03-10-2010, 11:10 PM
Post subject: shitty turn spot 3 bet pot 600nl
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,131
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Villain is an average 22/17 regular. Fold's to 3 bets 60% of the time 4 bets 11%. Preflop is marginal and I didn't notice we were deeper than 100bb in which case I probably wouldn't 3 bet this hand.
He is pretty floaty postflop. Folds to cbets 20% of the time over 1.8k hands. A couple of sessions ago he called a 4 bet oop with A9o bvb 150bb deep, c/c c/c an over bet turn shove on 9 high wet board. I had QQ and held. There is no recent gameflow really, we've generally both been in line this session.
No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
Hero (BB) ($1102.05)
UTG ($741.90)
MP ($509.10)
Button ($751.55)
SB ($953.05)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 , A
2 folds, Button bets $14, 1 fold, Hero raises $48, Button calls $40
Flop: ($111) 6, 7 , A (2 players)
Hero bets $72, Button calls $72
Turn: ($255) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $174, Button raises $625.55 (All-In) Hero?
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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It's gross but you only beat a bluff so I'd fold. I guess it's a good spot for him to bluff since it's hard to continue with anything but the very top of your range but that's a big move for an average reg.
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pjpat
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High Card
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 9
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i'm not a pro but it feels that you're beat here. could see him slowplay AA and hope you hit your AQ, could also see him hitting a 66 or 77 set on flop. Obviously AQ is a hand he could hold too, played that way. I don't see him with QQ, considering the call on flop (would be a raise or fold to me?). why would he push it on turn, with an Ace and any non-paired kicker? or even A6?
He *could* bluff with an ace and random kicker, put you on a stronger Ace, and try to represent AQ on the turn (praying it's not your hand). But that would be a pretty crazy move, so i woulden't take the chance 
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AnTman_69
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posts: 463
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pjpat
i'm not a pro but it feels that you're beat here. could see him slowplay AA and hope you hit your AQ, could also see him hitting a 66 or 77 set on flop. Obviously AQ is a hand he could hold too, played that way. I don't see him with QQ, considering the call on flop (would be a raise or fold to me?). why would he push it on turn, with an Ace and any non-paired kicker? or even A6?
He *could* bluff with an ace and random kicker, put you on a stronger Ace, and try to represent AQ on the turn (praying it's not your hand). But that would be a pretty crazy move, so i woulden't take the chance |
this
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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I'm torn here. I don't really think he's bluffing that much here, but at the same time the board is so dry that I would expect him to flat with sets again and even AQ a good portion of the time.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
I'm torn here. I don't really think he's bluffing that much here, but at the same time the board is so dry that I would expect him to flat with sets again and even AQ a good portion of the time.
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yeah, I've been thinking about this more since I posted, and it's a pretty bad value raise by him... our range has a fair number of bluffs and some strong hands that have a lot of trouble calling a raise (AK/A7/A6/76) but might go for a 3rd street of value. Still, I get myself into trouble so often when I give opps more credit than they deserve. He probably has 66/77 and is thinking, "if he has AQ I'm stacking him!" even though he really shouldn't ever be raising this turn imo.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Yeah id fold
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TheLeakyFaucet
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 54
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damn some regs are retarded, probably a fold
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meeloche
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,131
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I folded, at the time and right now I feel like folding if it's a mistake is a smaller one than calling could be.
However I need 30% to call. If I add in a couple of oesd's or gutshots then i get pretty close to the 30%. I'm just unsure how often he's likely to be bluffing.
About an hour later we played a similar hand where he took the same line with a hand that made me think he was likely to be bluffing here.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I guess if you're only folding to 20% of cbets you have to make a lot of moves on the turn to make up for it...
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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I don't get pre vs this guy and I think your best line postflop is cbet and c/c down. I would call the shove if I played it like this, certainly excpecting to see 89s/89o a lot and even A6s once in a blue moon.
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meeloche
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketfours
I don't get pre vs this guy and I think your best line postflop is cbet and c/c down. I would call the shove if I played it like this, certainly excpecting to see 89s/89o a lot and even A6s once in a blue moon.
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I agree preflop is a mistake. I made it on the assumption we were only 100bb deep and that he wasn't defending much preflop. The first assumption is obviously wrong second one is certainly debatable.
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