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Ship it in with AQo?

  
 
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Fnord
Old 08-09-2008, 11:21 AM     Post subject: Ship it in with AQo? #1 (permalink)  
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BTN is really terrible and is on a suicide mission. He's got like a top 20%ish hand here discounting the top 5%.

CO is the problem here. He's a nitty sort. I think my pre-flop numbers are a bit scewed on him because he's had some big hands. My guess is something like 18/13. I think I'm at best flipping when he calls my re-raise.

Should I just flat here pre-flop? Shove over the back raise?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($164.75)
UTG+1 ($230.20)
CO ($197.00)
BTN ($115.15)
SB ($339.75)
Hero ($217.50)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, CO raises to $7, BTN calls $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $30, CO calls $23, BTN raises to $53, Hero ????
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 08-09-2008, 11:50 AM #2 (permalink)  
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CO could be calling assuming the maniac will call with a wide range. I know you did not mention that so correct me if I'm wrong there. If thats true I would not mind shipping it in, I don't see any other real alternatives. If button plays a little differently I do not see how we are ahead of the nit. In my experience when nits call a 3 bet in position they usually have a big pair.

The preflop decision weather to 3bet or call really has my head in tangles this late. I feel like it cannot be bad because even out of position we still have a very good opportunity to stack the maniac all though we will get bet off our hand a good amount by the cut off.
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bigspenda73
Old 08-09-2008, 12:27 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I think the CO can flat a big hand here not wanting to blow the fish out of the pot and your 3bet has pretty much protected the pot for him.

Frankly I'm having trouble putting him on a weak range here, something like TT+,AQ+ makes sense.
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Renton
Old 08-09-2008, 12:31 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 i'd fold

and i get it in with AQ pre tons fwiw
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Marshall28
Old 08-10-2008, 03:47 AM #5 (permalink)  
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it just depends so much on your recent history. if he has seen you squeezing a few times, or you think he's likely to be doing this as a trap then obv u cant go with it.

if u think hes just crazy i expect him to show up w/ a hand like 55-99 in which case the dead money in the pot makes it +ev to get it in. either way, i think it depends too much on recent history, i think u probly know the right answer in your gut.
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Fnord
Old 08-10-2008, 04:58 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Yeah, he tarped me with Kings. I vastly over-estimated my equity when I ran the PokerStove numbers. Just checking as I can be a bit gunshy with AK. It's pretty incredible the pre-flop equity difference between the two hands.

Always an interesting balance we need to draw between GAMBooL and discression.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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