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Robb
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05-10-2009, 05:44 PM
Post subject: Set odds marginal 3-way
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,074
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SB is 18/15 TAGG-reg who doesn't 3bet very wide. UTG 1 is 23/4 and has made a couple loopy decisions postflop. I typically set mine w/ >20x set odds, and I would prefer 15x odds in this spot (only getting 12x but flop will be 3-way if I call). I feel like the TAGG stacks off lots with over pairs and TPTK's 'cuz the pot's so bloated, and I'm pretty happy with the loopy guy being 150bb deep.
Included the flop 'cuz the hand set up perfectly for me. So I'm biased by the results. Anyone fold this preflop?
$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($161.80)
UTG 1 ($147.50)
CO ($48.45)
Hero (BTN) ($182.15)
SB ($107.50)
BB ($121.10)
Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN  
UTG raises to $2, UTG 1 calls $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, SB raises to $12, 1 fold, UTG folds, UTG 1 calls $10, Hero calls $10
Flop:    ($39, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG 1 bets $22, Hero calls $22, SB folds
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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idk why but my intuition is that this is very close to neutral ev
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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This is minus EV and a clear fold PF. He has to stack off like 90% of the time you flop your set...
This hand is almost like everyone limped PF IMO.
He can do this very, very wide and is correct to do so even OOP with almost ATC depending on his hand reading.
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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Yeah but OP stated that he doesn't 3bet wide even if it's correct for him to do so
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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I don't 3bet particularly wide at 4% and I'd make the same play, so I don't know if we really can found setmining on that assumption. I'd need like under 2% or something, haha
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,074
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mixchange
I don't 3bet particularly wide at 4% and I'd make the same play, so I don't know if we really can found setmining on that assumption. I'd need like under 2% or something, haha
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Sorry, I should have been more specific. I checked both 3b an sqz stats while thinking this through at the table, and he was 3 and 4 respectively. I think I had about 400 hands on him at the time.
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