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griffey24
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10-15-2007, 06:06 PM
Post subject: set against a nit.. but he's raising!.. Deep
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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-Villain is a nit and runs about 12/9 and his AF is 1.65
-when he calls my flop raise, I'd imagine his range is JJ+, AK/AQs. I don't think JT is in his range
-I don't know if he'd raise a bare Q here, I've rarely seen him raise Post flop so I don't know his raising range at all. His turn AF is 0.86
Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$5
6 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $527
UTG+1: $1157.05
CO: $839.55
Button: $528
SB: $87.65
Hero: $2126.75
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with  
2 folds, CO raises to $20, 2 folds, Hero calls $15 (pot was $27).
Flop:    ($42, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $30, Hero raises to $88, CO calls.
Turn:  ($218, 2 players)
Hero bets $150, CO raises to $375, Hero ?? <-- #360ish behind if I just call
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Silly String
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: KC, MO
Posts: 1,434
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I don't see how we could fold as it would be hard to put a nit on 56s here. I get it all in on the turn, and hope for AQs although it looks like QQ might have just sucked out. If it's 99 then GG Mr. Nit.
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Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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i hate your flop raise size..
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
i hate your flop raise size..
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I'm assuming you mean, make it bigger...110ish?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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surely your turn bet is to entice a raise so we can push right? and opp cant fold anything significant...
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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sux if he has QQ but that's all you're worried about.
This can be AA KK looking to get it in on non-spade turns
Very very very close imo. If I continue, I just get it in cuz there's a Q on board (and in his mind the Q is a blank for AA/KK)
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,339
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JTs, 99 and 55 are all reaonable holdings.
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Ravageur
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Official Montreal SwampRat
Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 1,242
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Yeah I think a raise to 120$ on flops like these is better so you can do everything you can to get it in on the flop (Is he ever folding AA/KK no matter how much you raise the flop???). As played you just have to bet/call the turn. You're probably beat but you, sir, have a set.
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Family Cruise IMO
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
i hate your flop raise size..
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I'm assuming you mean, make it bigger...110ish? |
it gives away your hand...
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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ahahahahah didnt even notice that
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,074
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
i hate your flop raise size..
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I'm assuming you mean, make it bigger...110ish? |
it gives away your hand... |
I would like to see a pot-sized rr on the flop (about $70 + the $30 he's got in already). Flush + inside str8 draw is about the best hand he can have. Any made hand is a dog (i just can't see T6 or 64). Pot raise does not give him odds for a call.
The way you played it, he missed his draw on the turn. He looks like a big pair to me. I'm tossing in a pot-sized raise. I pay off QQ. I'm pushing here, all-in rr against any action.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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i think he would still raise AA KK and AsQs, which is still in his range.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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120, 210, shove/callshove
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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why dont you think JT is in his range
and i was talking about raising to '88' on the flop
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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gabe you are too deep for us
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,567
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lol at '88' bet. also, raise more to rep a draw, build pot, etc.
im also stacking off on the turn but not looking forward to showdown too much.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,074
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
why dont you think JT is in his range
and i was talking about raising to '88' on the flop
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My understanding was that he's tight. Am I reading the "nit 12/9" wrong? I thought this was PokerTracker's VP$P / PreFlop Raise. If that's the case, he's only raising 9% of his hands, and that (for me) means no raises on JTs, even in the cutoff. Did I misunderstand the 12/9 stat?
The overall aggression factor of 1.5 is almost worrying, but I would think his chance of being in with a JT is less than 5%. If he has JT, I'm stacking off. If he has QQ, I'm stacking off. I think he has a flush draw, and I'm pushing to not give him odds to hit it. I think in 90% of his likely range, I'm either ahead or way ahead.
But maybe I'm missing something? I am a relatively new player, so I could certainly be wrong here.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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yea his average pfr is 9%, but since its an average the CO and button positions are going to be higher than 9 because they are the best positions for raising
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Upon further thinking, I agree that I should have also put JT in his range.
So given that, we're adding even more hands in his range that I'm behind, though I still agree with most of you that i'm pushing here. But im mostly pushing here cause "I have a set.. if you have me beat.. then cooler.. gg"... definitely no fist pumping going on as I pushed.
We're 170bb's deep here, how deep would people have to be to ACTUALLY consider folding on this turn?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,567
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this is enough bb's to fold it imo, but i would need to know more than his turn AF to fold..like he wouldn't semibluff there or over play AA/KK.
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