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rusty, 2nd hand into the session
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mxiu
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10-10-2009, 12:37 AM
Post subject: rusty, 2nd hand into the session
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 982
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villain is running 19/16/4, no reads, but is decent
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($269.40)
Hero (SB) ($200)
BB ($200)
UTG ($379.50)
MP ($779.85)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 , 9
3 folds, Hero bets $6, BB calls $4
Flop: ($12) 6 , 3 , 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BB calls $10
Turn: ($32) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $24, BB raises to $60, Hero...
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
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you're ahead 90% of the time with top two based on his flop call. he probably has picked up a combo draw of some kind or he's bluffing.
he will be getting too good a price to fold most of those combo draws so i'd shove. river decision is never going to be as profitable to call when a draw completes, and since he is IP he probably checks behind the pair + draw hands when the draws brick (and folds when he misses). so turn shove seems best.
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
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here's some numbers to support my opinion
Board: 7c 9s 6c 3s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.517% 37.52% 00.00% 1106 0.00 { 97o }
Hand 1: 62.483% 62.48% 00.00% 1842 0.00 { 33, Ac8c, As8s, Tc9c, Tc8c, Ts8s, 98s }
---
he seems like the type to raise a combo draw on the turn rather than float it, probably not the type to regularly slowplay the flop (only included 33, not 45s/66/77). you probably have at least 33% equity.
but the trend would be the more likely he is to raise a draw and less likely to slowplay, the better a shove would be. since you don't have a strong feel for his tendencies but know he's aggressive, i'd shove the turn.
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