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Rivering nut flush on paired board vs tame reg.

  
 
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Carroters
Old 04-29-2010, 10:55 PM     Post subject: Rivering nut flush on paired board vs tame reg. #1 (permalink)  
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 Villian is 19/16 over ~350 hands with ATS from the small blind as 41%. He's pretty stright forward - folds a bunch to 3-bets, 3 bets only 4% himself. I have been abusing him IP a fair bit this session though.

On the river I just feel sick when he c/rs here. I think it's fair to say he just never ever has a bluff here. He just doesn't float 2 streets with air nor does he turn a made hand into a bluff since he wont expect me to fold better hands than say JJ or w/e. So the question is does he do this enough with worse flushes I suppose.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.750% 43.75% 00.00% 7 0.00 { As3s }
Hand 1: 56.250% 56.25% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 99-88, 44, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s }


This range is maybe a bit optimistic on the worse flush front from this guy, but idk maybe not. I can for sure have a ton of low flushes. i think it's quite likely that he felts the flop with a flopped set though so that makes me discount them somewhat. Probably a fairly easy call then I think.

Sorry if this is just a standard snap; hella aggro lines vs in line opponents when I have a strong but not quite nut hand have been botering me lately.

Do people think he c/r the river for value this wide?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG pantelgr ($99.15)
UTG+1 crash33610 ($106.65)
CO hazing74 ($218.95)
BTN rivichico ($100)
SB JulFRA63 ($109.20)
BB Hero ($110.15)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB
4 folds, JulFRA63 raises to $3, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6, 2 players)
JulFRA63 bets $4, Hero raises to $14, JulFRA63 calls $10

Turn: ($34, 2 players)
JulFRA63 checks, Hero checks

River: ($34, 2 players)
JulFRA63 checks, Hero bets $26.75, JulFRA63 goes all-in $92.20, Hero calls $65.45

 
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aka_red
Old 04-30-2010, 12:42 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 i would heavily discount full houses except for 99. i think its probably a call.
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griffey24
Old 04-30-2010, 12:53 AM #3 (permalink)  
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i would heavily discount full houses except for 99. i think its probably a call.
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Dragon Slayer
Old 05-01-2010, 02:42 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I think he bets the turn again with 44/88? I dont think someone this nitty is checking the river with a monster very often either. I call
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Fnord
Old 05-01-2010, 06:29 AM #5 (permalink)  
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His range is wider than that. Snap this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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pocketfours
Old 05-01-2010, 11:12 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Oops I'm stupid of course call.
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