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Rivered straight facing massive push; BvB & deep

  
 
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Ash256
Old 09-17-2007, 04:43 PM     Post subject: Rivered straight facing massive push; BvB & deep #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain seems to be a reasonably aggressive multitabling TAG who likes to get tricky with floats and 2barrels every so often (But far from always). He doubled up earlier when a floated PP hit a set on the turn vs. an idiot's top pair. He's 17/14/2.4 or so over ~100 hands. I've been playing quiet TAG, I haven't done anything out of line.



Seat 1: kumite76 ($41.75 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: Villain ($119.59 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero ($130.57 in chips)
Seat 8: sanspade ($44.38 in chips)
Seat 10: Juwel79 ($12.00 in chips)
Villain: Post SB $0.25
Hero: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [:Qd: :Kd:]
2 folds
Villain: Raise $2.25
Hero: Call $2.00


*** FLOP *** [ :Ts: :Kc:]
Villain: Bet $4.00
Hero: Call $4.00


*** TURN *** []
Villain: Bet $11.00
Hero: Call $11.00


*** RIVER *** [:Jd:]
Villain: Allin $102.09
Hero goes wtf?
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Warpe
Old 09-17-2007, 04:49 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 raise flop?



 
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Kagey
Old 09-17-2007, 05:14 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I think I almost always fold here I don't believe he's firing enough without a Q or AQ. He surely isn't doing this with 2 pair or a busted draw. Looks like some kind of stack -a-donk line to me.

Anyway why no reraise on the turn?
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Pelion
Old 09-17-2007, 05:31 PM #4 (permalink)  
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no way he doesnt have at least a Q here.

You're risking $100 to win $15.

You need to be splitting 87% of the time to call.

AQ,KQ,QQ,QJ,Q9,Q8. All probably raise preflop and bet the flop alot. The turn filters alot out of his range though. Id say only

A Q, KQ, QJ.

Will get there on the river to shove. A Q has one combination. KQ has 6. QJ has 6. So we are splitting 12/13 of the time which is 92%. If he shoves KQ/QJ every time then we can call.

BUT will he shove every time with KQ / QJ here? If he shoves AQs every time here then he needs to shove KQ/QJ 94% of the time which is probably not going to happen. Id expect him to overbet shove AQ most of the time, and usually make a smaller value bet with just a Q. If hes not even shoving KQ 50% then its a pretty clear fold.
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ChrisTheFish
Old 09-17-2007, 06:11 PM #5 (permalink)  
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This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.
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WildBobAA
Old 09-17-2007, 07:03 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish
This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.
Shoving the nuts here is actually a pretty good play.
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Pelion
Old 09-17-2007, 07:14 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WildBobAA
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish
This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.
Shoving the nuts here is actually a pretty good play.
yea id shove it
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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griffey24
Old 09-17-2007, 07:48 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
Originally Posted by WildBobAA
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish
This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.
Shoving the nuts here is actually a pretty good play.
yea id shove it
Whats a better play though. Shoving or check/shoving? I think its safe to assume that hero would value bet a Q if checked to in this spot.

Check/shoving gets more value out of a bare Q who might fold to a shove and any missed draw that might try to steal.
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Pelion
Old 09-17-2007, 08:29 PM #9 (permalink)  
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good point. check/shoving looks better
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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sauce123
Old 09-18-2007, 03:15 AM #10 (permalink)  
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this is v close
I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
 
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