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Rivered a set. Call or fold against possible flush?

  
 
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pokerroomace
Old 05-30-2007, 09:30 PM     Post subject: Rivered a set. Call or fold against possible flush? #1 (permalink)  
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This hand is all about the river. Call or fold? I put him on a flush. I only have a set. I fold. He’s bet as first to act out of 4 players. He has to have quite a decent hand unless he’s a complete donk. 2 pair is unlikely to bet pot on the river when the flush hit, but it is possible. I fold, I didn’t think my hand was good against his range even though I didn’t have any reads. Maybe my fold was a bit tight.

There is an active player behind me too that could have a flush.

No reads.

Texas Hold’em $4-$4 NL (Real Money)

Seat 1: Hero ($493 in chips)
Seat 2: McSillyPants ($500.30 in chips)
Seat 3: agassi111 ($396 in chips)
Seat 6: nikolasy ($229.10 in chips)
Seat 10: bloek ($597 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
agassi111 posts blind ($2), nikolasy posts blind ($4).

Hero is dealt: [ 3C,3H ]

PRE-FLOP
bloek bets $12, Hero calls $12, McSillyPants calls $12, agassi111 folds, nikolasy calls $8.

FLOP [board cards QD,9D,KS ]
nikolasy checks, bloek checks, Hero checks, McSillyPants checks.

TURN [board cards QD,9D,KS,6H ]
nikolasy checks, bloek checks, Hero checks, McSillyPants checks.

RIVER [board cards QD,9D,KS,6H,3D ]
nikolasy bets $50, bloek folds, Hero ?folds, McSillyPants folds.

SHOWDOWN
nikolasy wins $97.50.

SUMMARY
Dealer: McSillyPants
Pot: $100, (including rake: $2.50)
Hero, loses $12
McSillyPants, loses $12
agassi111, loses $2
nikolasy, bets $62, collects $97.50, net $35.50
bloek, loses $12
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givememyleg
Old 05-30-2007, 09:42 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I highly doubt McSillyPants ever has a flush here after checking the flop/turn, esspecially if he is an active player. I think this is pretty tough.

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pokerroomace
Old 05-30-2007, 10:07 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Why can't he check the flop and turn with an FD?
It's 4 handed and quite a big pot already. It is unlikely he'll get folds and he risks being raised allin.

If I was in his position I would definitely check the flop and I would probably check the turn too with an FD. He's 1st to act out of 4.
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givememyleg
Old 05-30-2007, 10:29 PM     Post subject: Re: Rivered a set. Call or fold against possible flush? #4 (permalink)  
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 I was referring to this comment:

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerroomace
There is an active player behind me too that could have a flush.
It is quite possible for the main villain to have a flush though, and definitely see your struggle here. I think I would call here though, without much of a reasoning other than I rivered a set.

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pokerroomace
Old 05-30-2007, 11:01 PM #5 (permalink)  
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ooo. sorry. i thought you were saying that if utg did have a flush that he played it badly. my bad

others thoughts on this? i have a set - i should call isnt a gd enuf reeson. we are professionals here
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Vi-Zer0Skill
Old 05-31-2007, 01:12 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 Why can't he be stealing a pot that got checked around 2 streets? I definitely call here, despite the possibility villan could be holding a rivered flush.

Edit: bet size is a little big. This is suddenly a much tougher spot. I still call though, since we only have to be right 1 time out of 3 that villan is bluffing, and he is aggressive.
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Galapogos
Old 05-31-2007, 01:27 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 I don't mind a fold. But I've seen so much dumb shit on this site I still call it.


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benny999
Old 05-31-2007, 06:58 AM #8 (permalink)  
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he could be betting 2pr or bluffing, although trying to c/r twice is sorta unlikely on that board 4way.
i dunno, prob a mistake to call since his range is likely flush/bluff like you said, but maybe it's worth the info.
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givememyleg
Old 05-31-2007, 08:31 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerroomace
others thoughts on this? i have a set - i should call isnt a gd enuf reeson. we are professionals here
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pokerroomace
Old 05-31-2007, 09:24 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Galapogos
I don't mind a fold. But I've seen so much dumb shit on this site I still call it.
good point. i possibly should call with 2to1 PO.
i think a thinking player only ever makes this bet with the flush here. unless he has some amazing reads (but he doesn't here). he might not be a thinking player tho

Quote:
i dunno, prob a mistake to call since his range is likely flush/bluff like you said, but maybe it's worth the info.
this is really a new discussion but would you pay this sort of money for info? i think "calling for info" is a big leak in people's games and can be an excuse to make a bad call.
personally, i wouldn't call for info just because i will not make use of that info. even if i write it as a note - a lot of the time i won't make use of it.
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zenbitz
Old 05-31-2007, 10:29 PM #11 (permalink)  
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I think he's bluffing a fair amount here after 8 checks. The fact that you had to agonize over calling with a rivered set means it's a good place to bluff.

If you reverse the 3D and QD and you river like TP with QJ... then I think you might fold.
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pokerroomace
Old 05-31-2007, 11:23 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenbitz
I think he's bluffing a fair amount here after 8 checks. The fact that you had to agonize over calling with a rivered set means it's a good place to bluff.

If you reverse the 3D and QD and you river like TP with QJ... then I think you might fold.
i don't think that he was thinking so deep that he knew that it was a good place for him to bluff.
also, it might be a good idea to bluff in this spot on the button if it's checked round to you, but how does he know that nobody hit the flush or some other kind of draw. I don't think many players fold 2p or a set in this hand and he probably knows that.
Also, I think if he was bluffing that he would be better off betting 4/5 pot. Has the same effect but cheaper
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benny999
Old 06-01-2007, 02:43 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerroomace
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galapogos
I don't mind a fold. But I've seen so much dumb shit on this site I still call it.
good point. i possibly should call with 2to1 PO.
i think a thinking player only ever makes this bet with the flush here. unless he has some amazing reads (but he doesn't here). he might not be a thinking player tho

Quote:
i dunno, prob a mistake to call since his range is likely flush/bluff like you said, but maybe it's worth the info.
this is really a new discussion but would you pay this sort of money for info? i think "calling for info" is a big leak in people's games and can be an excuse to make a bad call.
personally, i wouldn't call for info just because i will not make use of that info. even if i write it as a note - a lot of the time i won't make use of it.
you're right. i was off on that "call for info" comment for this hand, but sometimes when a call seems like 0ev, it's worth calling if the info (or whatever other side effect) is worth something. here it just seems like a slight mistake.
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sauce123
Old 06-01-2007, 04:53 AM #14 (permalink)  
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you have a set call tho this is super close to a fold but i dont fold set so call
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biondino
Old 06-01-2007, 11:49 AM #15 (permalink)  
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If I was first to act and had seen three other people check both flop and turn with a flush draw on the board I would assume that none of them had the flush draw otherwise they'd have taken a stab at some point. So I would feel the 3rd flush card coming was a good spot to bluff, especially if I was that breed of player who HATES to see an orphan pot go unclaimed.
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pokerroomace
Old 06-01-2007, 11:56 AM #16 (permalink)  
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ok. thanks for the advice guys. i've learnt new stuff from this post. seems like i should have called
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zenbitz
Old 06-01-2007, 05:47 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerroomace
Quote:
Originally Posted by zenbitz
I think he's bluffing a fair amount here after 8 checks. The fact that you had to agonize over calling with a rivered set means it's a good place to bluff.

If you reverse the 3D and QD and you river like TP with QJ... then I think you might fold.
i don't think that he was thinking so deep that he knew that it was a good place for him to bluff.
also, it might be a good idea to bluff in this spot on the button if it's checked round to you, but how does he know that nobody hit the flush or some other kind of draw. I don't think many players fold 2p or a set in this hand and he probably knows that.
Also, I think if he was bluffing that he would be better off betting 4/5 pot. Has the same effect but cheaper
How deep do you have think to decide "hmmm nobody bet maybe I will try to steal it". It doesn't take a deep thinker (just a guy who's not scared/aware of flushes to bet here. No one has a two pair or set other than 33 since no one bet.

I agree a smaller bet might be a better bluff... but he really has a flush or straight or absolutly nothing (like T-high) so can't win a checked showdown and doesn't want a TPNK hand to call a small bet.
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