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river value bet decision

  
 
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benny999
Old 08-16-2006, 05:16 PM     Post subject: river value bet decision #1 (permalink)  
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This was hard for me to decide to bet the river, then harder to decide how much since I was low on time. What do you think of this line? Just push river? Pot flop and turn?

Villain is loose passive, around 60-70% vpip, but typically folds flop without a draw or 2nd pair. I'm tag. It was kind of tough since some of his draw range made a str8 on the river, and he is the type to check/raise after this action.


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Stack sizes:
UTG: $81.40
CO: $118.50
hero: $100
SB: $17.65
BB: $185.35

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is Button with J J
UTG folds, CO calls, hero raises to $5, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: 9 6 J ($11.5, 2 players)
CO checks, hero bets $9, CO calls.

Turn: 8 ($29.5, 2 players)
CO checks, hero bets $24, CO calls.

River: Q ($77.5, 2 players)
CO checks, hero bets $25 ($37 left after this)
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r8ed
Old 08-16-2006, 06:01 PM #2 (permalink)  
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r8ed
Looks fine. In general Villain is not checking the river often if he hit his hand because they don't want you to check behind. But you say he will check-raise in this spot so maybe you should check behind since you don't want him to push over.
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benny999
Old 08-16-2006, 06:18 PM #3 (permalink)  
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thanks..really was not sure about it.

And I haven't seen him do it, but it's just one of those spots it would suck to be check/raised, and I was thinking that loose/passives are usually the types to do it on the river, especially when I've bet big in the previous streets.
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Robert
Old 08-16-2006, 11:51 PM #4 (permalink)  
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If you think he has a tendancy to c/r rivers even when bluffing, then check behind. If not, this is fine.
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benny999
Old 08-17-2006, 12:01 AM #5 (permalink)  
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that makes sense. I didn't know his particular tendency, but think the norm for the river, even with loose passive stats, is like r8ed wrote- to lead with the str8, not check/raise...so it probably is best to bet again, maybe even more then 25.

and for results- villain called and showed Qc7c.
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Robert
Old 08-17-2006, 12:09 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Yeah without any reads, your valuebet is fine. Any bigger valuebet will not get called by a worse hand enough on this board.
Note that your small river bet screams weakness and a good tricky player will recognize this and sometimes try to c/r bluff you out of the pot (and you will have to fold) - but against the standard unknown at these stakes you'll be fine.
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benny999
Old 08-17-2006, 12:48 AM #7 (permalink)  
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haha yea, against someone like h@llingol this river would've been a million times trickier...I <3 100nl fish.
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