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mixchange
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03-29-2007, 03:02 PM
Post subject: River: beaten or bluffed?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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no reads due to alcoholism.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
SB ($29)
Hero ($61.15)
UTG ($74.80)
Button ($54.40)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J , A.
UTG calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero raises to $2, UTG calls $1.50, Button calls $1.50, SB calls $1.50.
Flop: ($8) A , 3, 7 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4, Button folds, SB folds.
Turn: ($16) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $9, UTG calls $9.
River: ($34) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $13.5, Hero ?
I don't believe villain has 2p or slowplayed a set, so question is: are we outkicked, or is this a bluffed blown FD?
Who considers a call here standard? anyone lead river?
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AHiltz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Coldbrook, NS
Posts: 1,589
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That's an aweful lot of cold calling by villian. He could easily play AK utg that way.
As played, I think I find a fold here.
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XTR1000
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Location: surfing in a room
Posts: 2,188
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without stats his line could mean so much, but the riverbet looks like he can take a call. if not 77/33 this is 78/98/T8dd a lot.
depending on villian we might expect a weaker ace here. if i were in villians shoes here, i´d bet the river with atc, putting you on a busted draw, since you were betting so weak.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
xtr stand for exotic tranny retards
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yo
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
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Villain limp/called pre-flop. He *might* do this with AT (if he does, he's a donk), but he's much more likely to do so with a PP or possibly SCs.
Also, note that second pair has just turned into trips on the river. So if he has 89, say, he has suddenly shot ahead.
The way he has played this (aided by your river check) means it could be a bluff, but it's a bad bluff if it is as 8x is the only thing being repped, since there's no flush or straight possible. Perhaps a frustrated diamond flush draw would chance his arm here? But my instinct is that he has 2p, trips or a set and is value betting against a player who is screaming "I have an ace".
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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I don't think we can fold here, we're almost getting 4:1. He only has to be bluffing 1 in 5 times and we break even here.
I could see a miss diamond draw better here. Nobody seems to think its missed diamonds, because it seems like he WANTS a call, but maybe thats what he WANTS us to think?
What if he bet $30 here? I bet tons of people would be saying to call. This could be a well sized bluff, that seemingly wants a call. From his perspective, he only needs his bluff to work 1 in 3 times to break even.
I think pot odds says call here!
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Galapogos
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03-29-2007, 05:11 PM
Post subject: Re: River: beaten or bluffed?
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#6 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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I call this everytime. This is easily a shitty ace or a busted flushdraw often enough to make the call. If he plays a set this weak so be it, but even the most passive of donks start getting crazy when they hit one. Biondino, if you put him on 2 pair, remember, we have that too now.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mixchange
no reads due to alcoholism.
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Haha, that's awesome.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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JJDAMAN
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: UVIC
Posts: 106
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I call this pretty much always. The way you played it (betting 1/2 pot on every street) I can see this being a lower ace or sometimes a missed flush. I think set/2pr would raise somewhere.
Also, like it has been said before, its a really small bet to call. If he has a set/boat/2pr I pay it off here.
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XTR1000
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Location: surfing in a room
Posts: 2,188
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
I could see a miss diamond draw better here. Nobody seems to think its missed diamonds, because it seems like he WANTS a call, but maybe thats what he WANTS us to think?
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when we put him on missed diamonds, we should remember that about 1/3 of XXdd in his range contains an eight
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
xtr stand for exotic tranny retards
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yo
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Phantaroth
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 505
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I think if you check the river , you have to call when he bets. Maybe leading out for like 10 would be easier.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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call because the pot is so big and the bet is so small
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mixchange
I don't believe villain has 2p or slowplayed a set
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Then call. I pretty much always call this da pot is huge.
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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Legendash
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Full House
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Crypto 6max 100NL
Posts: 611
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I think you're outkicked but you have to call at 4:1
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"[This theory] is only useful for helping to calculate your luck odds. If you have a good read that you have a numerical advantage against your opponent, that your hand is "luckier"..."
Copyright, Youngdro 2007.
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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I felt outkicked but I called anyway.
I was curious how everyone else plays this hand on the streets. Does anyone lead river, or was the check-call the best option?
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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why would you be outkicked, the guy ccalled utg? most fish raise ak aq
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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You have a point, Gabe. I guess I'm just stuck in my own assumptions/fears and looking for reasons to fold. I admit to playing a bit scared with just one pair, especially with a mediocre kicker.
Do you check call river here?
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