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dsaxton
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06-11-2009, 09:24 PM
Post subject: Request to have people stop using the term "+EV"
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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This is something that's annoyed me for a while, so I thought I'd be a jerk and make a post about it. Your goal on any street of poker, or in any gambling game for that matter, is to make the play that maximizes expectation, not to simply make any play that happens to have positive expectation, or to avoid a play that has negative expectation. In fact, whether or not a play has positive expectation means literally nothing in itself. The best play may in fact have negative expectation, or the worst play may have positive expectation.
Consider this game: you choose one of three options, a profit of $10, a profit of $100, or a profit of $1,000. All choices have positive expectation, but obviously only one is correct. Similarly, you could play a game where you choose either a loss of $10, a loss of $100, or a loss of $1,000. Here your best decision has negative expectation. Simply pointing out that a play is "+EV" or "-EV" here is in itself meaningless.
Another interesting thing is that the apparent "expectation" of a play can be arbitrarily distorted by the particular accounting rules that happen to be used in the game. In poker, you make several transactions during a hand, where money is transferred from the players to the casino, and then at the end there's typically one transaction from the casino to a single player. This leads to a situation where calling with the worst hand is seen as a "+EV" play if you're getting the appropriate pot odds since, purely as a matter of convention, money in the pot is no longer considered yours. If instead you were to keep all your bets in your stack until the end of the hand, and then the loser transfer all this money to the winner, calling with the worst hand becomes a "-EV" play since there are now no "pot odds" to speak of (instead, winning the pot is now equivalent to *not losing* past bets), and you will win less than half the time. In this situation, both plays are "-EV", but folding and transferring all your past bets to your opponent may cost more over the long run, making it the inferior play. This is the case in backgammon money games where players typically only make transactions at the end of each game, rather than incrementally throughout the game. If you simply don't think in terms of "+EV" and "-EV", and instead recognize that it's a question of maximizing expectation regardless of whether the numbers happen to be positive or negative, the confusion disappears altogether.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,608
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Was nutsinho leaving +EV or -EV?
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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yup dsaxton
i give this thread 5 EVs thereby maximising my EV
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Muzzard
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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1) You're a nit.
2) The collection of knowledge always tends us towards getting better at beating the game. So to say that figuring out whether or not a particular play is +EV given certain conditions is worthless is wrong. It allows us to extrapolate when we are faced with a situation in the future where said conditions have changed.
The more +EV options we know exist and the more we know about the factors that go into selecting the most +EV option from that set, the better a player we are.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,608
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Also keep in mind, that say we are on the river facing a bet. Say someone responds saying "calling is +EV". True it might not be the best option, and maybe a raise is in order; however, if the statement "calling is +EV" holds true, then we know folding is incorrect. So it does play it's part. And it seems, usually more people use it in a way that they believe the best possible play is the play they indicate as +EV. So technically, if you follow what they are saying is +EV, you would be taking the line they believe would maximize your expectation.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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+EV is shorter to type than "profitable" or "positive expectation over the long term" or similar things.
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Just playing to improve.
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Marshall28
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06-12-2009, 08:23 AM
Post subject: Re: Request to have people stop using the term "+EV&quo
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#9 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
All choices have positive expectation, but obviously only one is correct.
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This is actually the only sentence I read. LOL.
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UG
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,855
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dsaxton,
I like the great majority of your posts, but this is not one of them.
Love,
UG
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
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Originally Posted by Muzzard
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
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um, i hope you guys really dont blame dsaxton for making nutsinho leave. If nuts got that butthurt over what was said then good riddance.
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
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Originally Posted by iopq
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Originally Posted by Muzzard
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
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um, i hope you guys really dont blame dsaxton for making nutsinho leave. If nuts got that butthurt over what was said then good riddance. |
lol, I guess IOPQ content makes up for his loss.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,074
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
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Originally Posted by iopq
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Originally Posted by Muzzard
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
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um, i hope you guys really dont blame dsaxton for making nutsinho leave. If nuts got that butthurt over what was said then good riddance. |
Nuts has taken weeks long breaks from FTR in the past. Unless something was said in the mod forum stacks knows about, I just assumed he'd be back eventually like always.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
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Originally Posted by iopq
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Originally Posted by Muzzard
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
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um, i hope you guys really dont blame dsaxton for making nutsinho leave. If nuts got that butthurt over what was said then good riddance. |
QFT.
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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Lucothefish
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cretaceous Park
Posts: 703
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I hope he comes back
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<@d0zer> how will you learn if I don't berate you harshly?
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Silly String
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: KC, MO
Posts: 1,434
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
And it seems, usually more people use it in a way that they believe the best possible play is the play they indicate as +EV.
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XxStacksxX said it best. . . both times. The thought above is my take on it. People don't complain about trips being called sets anymore and I think we can assume everyone means +EV is the line to maximize EV or we would suggest another way.
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Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Good intentions but not very practical imo.
3 spades for effort - 2 spades for practicality = 1 spade
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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its clear nuts left when stackxx offered his mom
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Marshall28
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
All choices have positive expectation, but obviously only one is correct.
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This is actually the only sentence I read. LOL. |
If you read it in context, you'd see it makes sense.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
1) You're a nit.
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This is pretty typical of this forum. I was trying to make a technical point about how some piece of terminology is misused because I think it involves a lot of interesting ideas, and somebody gets upset and insults me.
Nuts' leaving probably had more to do with the total lack of content / original thought in this forum than anything I said.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
1) You're a nit.
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This is pretty typical of this forum. I was trying to make a technical point about how some piece of terminology is misused because I think it involves a lot of interesting ideas, and somebody gets upset and insults me.
Nuts' leaving probably had more to do with the total lack of content / original thought in this forum than anything I said. |
besides that being a pretty obv. joke, irish followed that up with a fairly well thought out point. quit getting so butt hurt over stupid stuff.
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,608
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Da GOAT
its clear nuts left when stackxx offered his mom
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This is quite possible. I've learned the err of my ways and will provide pictures the next time I try to pay for coaching advice in this manner.
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Max+EV?
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Sir Pawnalot
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Norway
Posts: 668
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I disagree with OP, yet I see your point.
Lets say we have   on the big blind and someone raises to 3 dollar. We have already contributed 1 dollar.
Pot is 4.5 USD.
Folding: EV-1 USD
Calling (estimated Equity 30 %):E= 6.5 USD*0.3= 1.95,
EV: 1.95-3= -1.05 USD (without considering rake)
Here we see that folding is less EV- than calling.
The term EV is very helpful in deciding our action. Therefore I try to maximize EV, without only considering whether its EV+ or not.
I think you made a good point- but EV+ or EV- is still helpful terms as stacks said.
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A foolish man learns nothing from his mistakes.
A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
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Silly String
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: KC, MO
Posts: 1,434
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Folding is not -EV in the example above. The bb is a sunk cost no matter our future actions and therefore a fold is 0 EV.
Now if you stood up and walked away from the table then told the dealer to post for you and fold, you would then be -EV.
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Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
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Sir Pawnalot
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Norway
Posts: 668
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True
Maybe I am mixing some terms yes. I have my own understanding of poker terms which works for me.
Still- we lose 1 USD when folding and 1.05 when calling (oversimplified bc 83 off has little implied odds)
Look at it like this- if we fold every single hand including AA we lose 1.5 USD each orbit. Isnt that EV-?
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A foolish man learns nothing from his mistakes.
A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
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fine I'll use EV'(x) = 0
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Silly String
Folding is not -EV in the example above. The bb is a sunk cost no matter our future actions and therefore a fold is 0 EV.
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One of my points was that it actually doesn't matter if you consider it a sunk cost or not. If it's a sunk cost, then folding has zero expectation, and the expectation of any other play is incremented by one. If it's not considered a sunk cost, then folding has an expectation of minus one and every other play is decremented by one, but the ranking of expectations doesn't change.
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langaan
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Silly String
Folding is not -EV in the example above. The bb is a sunk cost no matter our future actions and therefore a fold is 0 EV.
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If it's not considered a sunk cost, then folding has an expectation of minus one |
can someone enlighten me with an example of -EV folding??
how can a fold result in anything except 0 EV ?
dsaxton,
+EV is typically used on this forum alot to describe a play as correct or incorrect ( profitable or not ) as Im sure you know...
maximizing EV is exactly what it sounds like. I think we have the proper vocab here dont we?
a passive fish who flops a royal flush may call $2 bets in a 100NL game down with the nutz. This is far from the best play, but its still +EV.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by langaan
can someone enlighten me with an example of -EV folding??
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umm, folding AA preflop?
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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langaan
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
Quote:
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Originally Posted by langaan
can someone enlighten me with an example of -EV folding??
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umm, folding AA preflop? |
and you've lost what by folding?
If folding AA is -EV, wouldnt that make folding 27o +EV?
Folding is 0EV always.
if im wrong , then please explain.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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you've lost an expected return of X bbs, where X is whatever your average bb/hand when dealt AA. If you show a profit by playing 72o, then folding that would be -EV too(although obv its not).
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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langaan
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 240
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[quote="bode"]you've lost an expected return of X bbs[quote]
yes, you lost an opportunity to play a hand that has a positive EV, but its still not -ev to fold 
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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It's semantics... and the discussion is basically over. Put it to rest?
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
1) You're a nit.
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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