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meeloche
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10-19-2009, 08:09 PM
Post subject: really weird line and sizing by villain
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,131
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Villain is the spot at the table. However he's not completely giving it a way. His stats are like 30/27 over like 400 hands or so. His cbet is lower than most like 45%. His timing on the turn was a couple of seconds his river timing was super insta.
His turn and river sizing are pretty interesting and confused me.
No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
MP ($802.50)
Hero (CO) ($643.90)
Button ($600)
SB ($669)
BB ($883.90)
UTG ($566.15)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A , J
UTG bets $18, 1 fold, Hero calls $18, Button calls $18, 2 folds
Flop: ($63) 7 , 8 , A (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $42, 1 fold, UTG calls $42
Turn: ($147) K (2 players)
UTG bets $54, Hero calls $54
River: ($255) 4 (2 players)
UTG bets $270, Hero?
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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I wouldn't be surprised if this was KK pretty often, though yah I admit his sizing on the flush card is kind of weird. This could even be AK.
The problem is he never has air here really, so meh I fold.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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i kinda like raising turn small vs someone like him and not putting any more money in. its a raise for info but he calls with worse often enough and it saves you from making a big river mistake
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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meh, most fishy players would be worried about the flush hitting yet wouldn't c/c the flop with a flush draw as pfr, I'd be surprised if he bet so much on the river with a weirdly played ak or kk. I think this is something like a flopped gutter that possibly picked up a heart draw as well on the turn that's now bluffing a scare card. I'd probably call.
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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meeloche
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,131
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
i kinda like raising turn small vs someone like him and not putting any more money in. its a raise for info but he calls with worse often enough and it saves you from making a big river mistake
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I wish I thought of cool things like this...
How often do you guys think this is missed hearts? fwiw at the time I really thought it was this a lot.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
i kinda like raising turn small vs someone like him and not putting any more money in. its a raise for info but he calls with worse often enough and it saves you from making a big river mistake
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Yah I do this sometimes, but it definitely sucks when they jam over you on the turn. Its good vs players you have reads on, and you know they won't jam draws when you raise their turn bets.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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dont think they ever jam worse on the turn. the only hard part is if they bluff river into you
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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I always ask myself before i consider calls with these types of hands "is he really ever v-betting any worse?" i think the answer is clearly no. So now you have to decide if he's bluffing, which it doesn't look like he is. It looks exactly like KK and probably is lol.
Gabes line is really clever especially if you dont think you can bet the river,
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TonyB73
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 414
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We don't think this looks like a slightly unconvincing attempt to bluff the scare card?
It looks to me like he's trying a little bit too hard to rep a flush. Its an insta pot+ bet - if he was looking for value wouldn't he take a little more time to decide how much we might be willing to pay off? Maybe he instead made up his mind when we called the turn that we would have included flush draws in his range and he would therefore barrel any diamond on the river. His earlier streets don't really look that much like a flush draw to me, but could probably be construed as one, especially as he cbets less than most.
I dunno, I play well below these stakes and you guys are a lot better than me, but in my games I would think it reasonably likely that he's trying to push me off with Ax or KQ or something like that, and it only needs to be the case ~35% of the time to call this (this obv goes up a bit if we think a shove is better because we think it will make him fold AQ and weak two pair type hands).
If I'm way off, please tell me why. I'm keen to learn.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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TonyB - I think a lot of this hand comes down to what assumptions we make on his flop c/c. To me, even a player with 45% cbet is likely to cbet most drawsm, but more likely to check hands like 67, 89, 8T, 99-KK type stuff on this flop. So based on my assumptions, he never has air here and even though he rarely has a flush, there isn't much we beat on the river either. If anything, a player with a low cbet is more likely to check hands like A7/A8/AK on the flop or something than most other players.
Maybe his river shove is just trying to catch up for lost value with two pair/trips.
I agree with Max's logic, I'm confused as to what he has, but I also can't put him on any bluff.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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I do the turn raise vs these guys and it works pretty well.
as played just fold.
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
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meeloche
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,131
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Maybe his river shove is just trying to catch up for lost value with two pair/trips.
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He didn't shove river fwiw he has like 200ish behind.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Im wondering if he ever checks river when he bets the turn here
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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Results, I'm kinda curious?
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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meeloche
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,131
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Well I called cause I really didn't understand what he was doing I thought he'd have missed hearts a lot. He had Jd9d.
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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from amaeteurish/averagish players the sizing on the river is really scary, especially when it goes undersized bet/huge overbet.
Pretty awesome comments from gabe!
this spot is frustrating because so many averagish players will play a hand in a way that makes no sense to us
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