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Really common situation - what're your thoughts?

  
 
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Ash256
Old 02-12-2008, 08:31 PM     Post subject: Really common situation - what're your thoughts? #1 (permalink)  
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 Low stakes, 100BB eff

We raise OTB with a low PP, mediocre but non-retarded TAG calls from BB.

Flop comes K73r (or similar) and he checks to us.


Do we bet or check behind?

I've been observing myself playing and I've noticed I check it down a lot. Problem is with this is it's extremely exploitable (my range for checking behind is basically low PPs and sometimes A hi) by anyone observant and that balancing it by checking behind a larger range would probably leave big holes in my game.

Thing is, if he calls we've probably got 2 outs.


What do you guys reckon?
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Pelion
Old 02-12-2008, 08:42 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Its a pretty good flop to bet since since alot of your range is stuff with Kings in and some of the time he doesnt fold youll find you were actually value betting your 88 against his 66 or w/e

unconnected, rainbow flops with 1 A/K/Q should be auto cbets.
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Ash256
Old 02-12-2008, 08:51 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Its a pretty good flop to bet since since alot of your range is stuff with Kings in and some of the time he doesnt fold youll find you were actually value betting your 88 against his 66 or w/e

unconnected, rainbow flops with 1 A/K/Q should be auto cbets.
I'm talking about low PPs here, 22-55 (and a bit of 66).

If our range is mostly Kings when we cbet, aren't we better off with 54 on a K73 than 44?
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Pelion
Old 02-12-2008, 08:56 PM #4 (permalink)  
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it doesnt matter what were better off with. it matters what we have. its a good cbet because it didnt hit many hands and it hit what were representing
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

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Warpe
Old 02-12-2008, 09:05 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 We're not looking for a showdown so our cards are irrelevant. If the flop hits our preflop raising range then checked to in position we should usually c-bet it, unless villain's a complete calling station.



 
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Ash256
Old 02-12-2008, 09:10 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
it doesnt matter what were better off with. it matters what we have. its a good cbet because it didnt hit many hands and it hit what were representing
What we have matters a lot if we're bluffing before the river.


Wait, why are we bluffing again? I thought our PF equity would carry us through.


Does this mean we should autobluff every flop where we don't have clear value?
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Warpe
Old 02-12-2008, 09:18 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 If we're not going to take a stab at the pot when it's the perfect spot to do so, then why are we raising preflop? Part of the point of raising here is to give us an opportunity to take the pot away whether we improve or not.

You're playing on level 1 here.



 
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Pelion
Old 02-12-2008, 09:19 PM #8 (permalink)  
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wait...what?

It doesnt matter if we are better off with 45 here because we dont have 45. In this spot with ATC we raised with preflop we should look to cbet because it looks like it hit our range and its just about as harmless a flop for villains calling range as we could hope for.

I dont really understand what youre saying about preflop equity. When we reraise preflop with 22 it has nothing to do with preflop equity. We are 50/50 with a random hand and well behind a reasonable calling range. We raise preflop as a kind of 2 street semibluff. We hope everyone folds preflop. If not, we hope everyone folds on the flop. If not we hope we hit a set (or some good scarecard comes that we can represent). Since we already know we are probably raising with the worst hand preflop, we have to bet harmless looking flops when they come. Otherwise we may as well limp/call or fold preflop.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

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Ash256
Old 02-12-2008, 09:25 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
We're not looking for a showdown so our cards are irrelevant.
Why not?
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Pelion
Old 02-12-2008, 09:27 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ash256
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
We're not looking for a showdown so our cards are irrelevant.
Why not?
umm... because we have 22? Our preflop equity was 50% against a random hand and this flop hasnt exactly help us...


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.968% 45.68% 00.29% 2932875 18790.50 { 22 }
Hand 1: 54.032% 53.74% 00.29% 3450684 18790.50 { random }
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Ash256
Old 02-12-2008, 09:29 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
I dont really understand what youre saying about preflop equity. When we reraise preflop with 22 it has nothing to do with preflop equity.
Good point. Having stoved a bit, I've found we have >50 equity against a standard calling range with 55 but not 22-44.




I still think the idea that it doesn't matter what our cards are when we're bluffing is complete shit though.
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Jack Sawyer
Old 02-12-2008, 09:32 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ash256
Low stakes, 100BB eff

We raise OTB with a low PP, mediocre but non-retarded TAG calls from BB.

Flop comes K73r (or similar) and he checks to us.


Do we bet or check behind?

I've been observing myself playing and I've noticed I check it down a lot. Problem is with this is it's extremely exploitable (my range for checking behind is basically low PPs and sometimes A hi) by anyone observant and that balancing it by checking behind a larger range would probably leave big holes in my game.

Thing is, if he calls we've probably got 2 outs.


What do you guys reckon?

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Warpe
Old 02-12-2008, 09:36 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ash256
I still think the idea that it doesn't matter what our cards are when we're bluffing is complete shit though.
um...what?
Quote:
Main Entry: bluff
Function: verb
Etymology: probably from Dutch bluffen to boast, play a kind of card game
Date: 1791
transitive verb
1 a: to deter or frighten by pretense or a mere show of strength b: deceive c: feign <the catcher bluffed a throw to first>
2: to deceive (an opponent) in cards by a bold bet on an inferior hand
intransitive verb
: to bluff someone : act deceptively



 
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Ash256
Old 02-12-2008, 09:38 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ash256
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
We're not looking for a showdown so our cards are irrelevant.
Why not?
umm... because we have 22? Our preflop equity was 50% against a random hand and this flop hasnt exactly help us...


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.968% 45.68% 00.29% 2932875 18790.50 { 22 }
Hand 1: 54.032% 53.74% 00.29% 3450684 18790.50 { random }











The 54/22 comparison was to illustrate that our bluffs have a higher expectation if we have more pot equity meaning that cards DO matter.[/b]
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Ash256
Old 02-12-2008, 09:42 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 btw guys I'm not timecube or anything, I just want answers and interesting discussion!
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Pelion
Old 02-12-2008, 09:45 PM #16 (permalink)  
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ok this might help

think about these. Board is 8h 7c 3d

KJo : 45%
Random: 55%

AND

22: 44%
Random: 56%.


So even if he calls preflop with any two cards, and calls the flop with any two cards KJ is as good as 22.

But hes likely to only call the flop with pairs and draws.
22s equity does this

22: 91% 22: 25%
74o: 9% 9To: 55%


KJo: 24% KJo: 53%
74o: 76% 9To: 47%


So KJ is much more of a semi bluff while 22 is much more of a pure bluff. Pure bluffs dont look to go to showdown when they fail. KJ improves more than twice as often to beat pairs so it has much more showdown value.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Pelion
Old 02-12-2008, 09:49 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ash256


I still think the idea that it doesn't matter what our cards are when we're bluffing is complete shit though.

Youve completely misunderstood what I said. Of course it matters what hand we are holding. It matters that we are holding an underpair with very little equity against a calling range. Of course we would rather have 45 here. That doesnt really matter though because we dont have 45... we have 55. It doesnt matter what we would rather have .
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Ragnar4
Old 02-12-2008, 09:51 PM #18 (permalink)  
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An experiment.

At your level play my game for a while. If you raise PF, always c-bet when given the opportunity. Always. Forget the texture of the flop. Mark the efficency you take down the pot with. Also mark which flops you get called on. Look for similarities between them.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Ash256
Old 02-12-2008, 10:02 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ash256


I still think the idea that it doesn't matter what our cards are when we're bluffing is complete shit though.

Youve completely misunderstood what I said. Of course it matters what hand we are holding. It matters that we are holding an underpair with very little equity against a calling range. Of course we would rather have 45 here. That doesnt really matter though because we dont have 45... we have 55. It doesnt matter what we would rather have .
Gotcha
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Marshall28
Old 02-12-2008, 10:50 PM #20 (permalink)  
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the way id consider this issue is, try to look at it from your opponent's perspective. how often does he think u r c-betting? what types of hands does he expect u to hold based on the position u raised from preflop, what is he willing to give u credit for?

on a K73r board if im in villains spot i'm check calling any pair, im check calling air sometimes to float til the river if i know the pf raiser is c-betting too much ... actually i probably checkraise this flop a lot more often because any flop like this that is really good to c-bet is one that's really good to checkraise.

anyways back to this issue. if you have like 99 and it's k73, u expect villain to call u w/ TT-66, 55, 44, 22, 7x, 3x, 45, and Kx. this is a very profitable spot to c-bet because you are getting value from a lot of hands, and are only beat by a small portion of his calling range. now if u have 22 on this board, u have to realize against the same type of opponent u are going to be value towning yourself since u know he is calling all these hands that beat u, so probably best to just try to check it down.

on the other hand, when you're facing a villain who folds too often to c-bets, you are going to be wanting to turn the 22 into a bluff by c-betting, and conversely you might want to check behind the 99 or QQ or whatever it may be occasionally to give him a chance to bluff u or catch up. if u have PAHUD, all you have to do is click on their ID and it will tell you exactly how often he has been calling c-bets (a great tool to make an easy read).

in terms of thinking about when you hold a hand like 45 or 56 here as you guys have been discussing, it actually has a lot of semi bluff value because not only can u catch your gutshot, but there are good turn cards to double barrel vs some villains, in particular, 9TJQ and A are all pretty decent cards to double barrel based on loose calling station villains range. vs tight villain he's more likely to show up w/ a K though, so u dont want to be firing a 2nd barrel hardly ever on a board like this vs him.
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minSim
Old 02-13-2008, 07:59 AM #21 (permalink)  
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You are c-betting to prevent villain to catch up by giving him free cards. It's more of a protection bet. You're not often called by worse, but checking through is not good as well.
You are ahead, let him make the mistake of calling with worse.

Situations you want to check is when villain more or less auto bets any turn to you. You have to call any turn as a result.
But that way the hand plays a lot harder and I doubt it gives you more value against most players.
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