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Irisheyes

02-17-2008, 10:32 AM Post subject: Quick pokerstove question

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I was in the middle of making a reply to pelions thread and something which I wasn't sure about occurred to me..

Say I have KJo and I raise to 4bb and get reraised from the small blind to 7bb. Pot is 7+4+1=12bb and it's 3 for me to call. So I need 20% equity to make a profitable call (ignore reverse implieds etc etc).

Now pokerstove tells me that against this range I should call:

Code:

           equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	26.054%  	25.64% 	00.41% 	      15807950 	   252303.00   { KdJh }
Hand 1: 	73.946%  	73.54% 	00.41% 	      45330388 	   252303.00   { TT+, AKs, AKo }

However, am I right in thinking that this isn't the full story because pokerstove assumes that the hand will get played to the river with no more betting? If for arguments sake the villain will lead every flop we see then I would possibly need greater then 26% equity to call preflop because I'm only going to see 3 cards out of five when I miss the flop?

If this is true does anyone know how to calculate the required equity?

Thanks.

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Robb

02-17-2008, 03:07 PM Post subject: Re: Quick pokerstove question

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

However, am I right in thinking that this isn't the full story because pokerstove assumes that the hand will get played to the river with no more betting?

Yes. Think how the action plays out against a KK or JJ that hits the flop, as you have hand that's basically DOA. If you get all-in right now, you have 25% chance of being ahead after the river. But the hands in the range you mentioned are going put a lot pressure on you with bets in the intermediate streets, and you're going to end up having to fold a large percentage of the time. Well, you don't have to fold. LoL.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

If for arguments sake the villain will lead every flop we see then I would possibly need greater then 26% equity to call preflop because I'm only going to see 3 cards out of five when I miss the flop?

Flop equity isn't hard to calculate, but it's time-consuming. I don't know of a program that does it. Maybe someone could help here. But the calculation goes something like this (mathematics omitted, mostly).

Range: TT+, AK
Villain has 20 possible pp's and 16 AK's for 36 total hands.
For AK, KK, JJ we're completing and hopelessly dominated (28/36).
For AA and QQ we're way behind (12/36).
For TT we're the short end of a coin flip (6/36).

Bad news 100% of the time.

Result? If you think villain is making this min-rr with only a premium hand, then fold fast. You can calculate odds for each of the above scenarios, and work backwards to your preflop decision with some reasonable estimate of equity on the flop. But why bother?

Now that I've answered the question (sort of), let me offer these pieces of advice.

1. Fold KJ pre (a few exceptions exist).
2. If you ignore #2, fold KJ to rr's pre (no exceptions).
3. If you ignore #1 and #2, remember this: at microstakes, the min-rr means real strength (pre and post).

Regarding #3, there's been a lot of discussion threads lately that talk about the annoying min-bet thing. I haven't seen as much about the min-rr. From my lowly platform near the NL10 train, a min-rr means fold without the nuts. These villains have no idea about proper bet sizing. They want to build a huge pot with a near-nut hand, so they're raising it up (but carefully). You may have odds to draw out on them. You may not. I've found myself drawing nearly dead most times when I pushed back against the min-rr's.

It's a donkbet from someone clueless who is leaving the door wide open for someone who has a big draw to stack them. But don't starting calling the min-rr down with TPTK. Preflop, don't call the min-3bet with anything: raise with AA, KK (maybe AK and QQ, depending on villain/read), and fold the rest of your crap.

My experience at donkstakes is that you're betting off calling the all-in shove with TPTK than the min-rr. LoL. Wacky game, but it's checkers not chess down here. Wait, it's not even checkers. It's like chutes and ladders played by 4-year olds with learning disabilities. It's hard to out-think someone who isn't thinking in the first place.

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