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Ravageur
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07-13-2006, 06:00 PM
Post subject: Question regarding SH NL sample sizes
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#1 (permalink)
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Official Montreal SwampRat
Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 1,242
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K, I'm not really sure what I'm trying to say, but I'll try anyway.
What do you figure is an appropriate sample to determine whether you were just on a heater, or just running cold etc...
I'm really trying to determine what my leaks are etc. and if I'm just running cold or had just been running hot. i.e. First 20k hands I ran at 7BB (as per Pokertracker) at 100/200 NL. My last 12k hands I've run at -3BB hand but this has been mostly at 200NL and 400 NL.
Can I take any conclusions from this? How many thousand hands would you say are needed to give yourself an idea of how winning/breakeven/losing a player you are shorthanded where the variance is higher, especially if you play a relatively Lag style of play. (I run at 26/16 6-handed). I've heard stuff from 20to 100k hands.
Thoughts?
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Family Cruise IMO
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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12k can be a simple bad run or break even play with a few bad decisions.
How would tightening up for a few k hands effect your winrate do you think. I tend to camp a bit more if i feel im running badly to see if it is that or if im just making one or two bad decsions.
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
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Define winrate (w) ptBB/100, standard deviation (sd) ptBB/100.
Your winrate over 100N hands lies within [w-2*sd/sqrt(N), w+2*sd/sqrt(N)] with 95% probability.
For example, if your winrate is 3 ptBB/100 with a sd of 40 ptBB/100 over 12K hands this range is [-4.3;10.3].
20K hands -> [-2.7, 8.7]
40K -> [-1.0, 7.0]
100K -> [0.5, 5.5]
There are some assumptions to this approximation but it gives you an idea about the huge variance within NL Hold'Em.
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