no suck out.
Originally Posted by Fnord
He had KK and I was pretty sure I was beat.
I called because I was getting almost 4-1 and I had been reraising light (it's a bad sign that I didn't have a read on him despite being pretty active at the table...).
I seem to have trouble playing P arty because the skill of unknowns is so unpredictable. The best and worst players are always hanging around. On loose-passive-weak sites like P rima and B 2 B I almost always know where I'm at, even vs unknowns, because the play is so similar it's like playing bots.
back to the hand : from villain's perspective I am reraising light (prob 4-5 times preflop in my 20 min at table) and betting out every flop. If I consider the possibility that he's a decent player, capable of moves (which I prob shouldn't until proven otherwise...) :
1) he can put me on missed overs on the flop (I have been betting when ppl smooth call my 3 bets preflop) and want to end the hand know
2) he can have a strong hand that I beat and wants to end the hand on the flop while he's ahead (i.e. 88-1010, jj or even a lower pp is he's aggressive)
3) he has a monster and wants to play for stacks
This is why I think folding the flop (although I really, really wanted to fold...) is not necessarily all that +EV. So I call, intending to fold to a bombed turn.
His turn check means all 3 situations are still possible . I don't want to build the pot so I check behind. This, of course, also gives off weakness from his point of view.
The problem with getting to the river with this line is that I obviously still can't be sure where I'm at since I can't rule out any of the 3 scenarios I had considered. If he was playing back at me on the flop, he now has to value-bet bluff or put me on a scared hand (i.e. 1010) that will have a tough time calling a big bet.
The jack makes this a very thin call since one of the hands I was leading might have hit. Also, if he were a strong player I think I would have seen something closer to a push if he had wanted me to fold. So it was a great bet by him.
Anything 150-ish and I fold.
Btw, what do you guys think of betting the turn? In retrospect, he was prob looking to checkraise ai there... Only problem is I couldn't really have left myself with much in the tank when he pushes...
Captain Obvious says : "You suffer from over-analyzing your own image through the eyes of unkowns"