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Preflop wargames.

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Miffed22001

11-27-2006, 02:58 PM Post subject: Preflop wargames.

#1 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

Villain is 23/18/3
Hero is 23/17/3

Full Tilt Poker (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em -
Seat 1: MstAA mAArtini ($782.25)
Seat 2: scrapper41 ($403.50)
Seat 3: KKinski ($542.30)
Seat 4: Villain ($506.80)
Seat 5: foxfox1 ($388)
Seat 6: Hero ($622.30)
KKinski posts the small blind of $2 Villain posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #2

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [Qs] [Qd]
foxfox1 folds
Hero raises to $14
foxfox1 adds $12
MstAA mAArtini calls $14
scrapper41 folds
KKinski folds
Villain raises to $58
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero raises to $190
MstAA mAArtini folds
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain raises to $506.80 and is all in
Hero ?????

Can/should hero call here?

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Lukie

11-27-2006, 03:06 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Posts: 3,307

Hmmm, I hate 4-betting here if we don't know how we're going to react to a shove. Even more specifically, I hate 4-betting here unless we have intentions of calling a push, since you're effectively turning a huge hand into a bluff (in my experience, many people have the huge leak of always folding or 5-bet pushing over a 4-bet and never calling). And by 'huge hand', I mean it in such a way that you think you're ahead of his range enough to put in that 3rd raise. If you're not way ahead of his range, just call pre.

As played, I can't really see folding queens after putting in 40% of my stack pre, lol.

andy-akb

11-27-2006, 03:10 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Maine

Posts: 1,836

I have to agree with Lukie here. If you are 4betting, you should be calling a push. If you arent calling the push, dont 4bet. I just call the reraise and go from there, our hand has too much value to fold to a PF 3bet and on that same note it also has too much value to turn into a bluff.

spoonitnow

11-27-2006, 03:15 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Posts: 5,406

If I counted it right we'd have to call $316 in a pot of $520, getting ~5:3, have to win about 38% of the time to breakeven.

We're 40% against AK, KK+, and 18% against KK+.

So let's say we're against AK, KK+ 30% of the time, and we're against KK+ 50% of the time, and we're against 37o 20% of the time just for kicks (87% favorite).

This gives us an equity of 12 + 9 + 17.4 = 38.4%.

Seems pretty clear that we shouldn't call.

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Warpe

11-27-2006, 03:23 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Why 4-bet in this spot? Call the initial rr and see a flop.

As played...well, you've got over 1/3 of your stack in...but it's a cursing fold, imo.

Renton

11-27-2006, 03:33 PM

#6 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Atlanta, GA, USA

Posts: 5,992

i realize that you 4bet to avoid playing a multiway pot here, but thats just what you are going to have to do.

You need a read that villain is a squeezeplaying fool in order to make this 4bet.

Miffed22001

11-28-2006, 09:00 AM

#7 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

if we assume villains felting range is AKs/AKo/AA/KK/QQ our equity is 40%.
Good call?

FWIW, i didnt play this hand, i posted it out of interest. I would probably still make the reraise but then fold to the 4bet and find a better spot.
Is that a whole better line than calling the raise and going three handed to the flop?

Lukie

11-28-2006, 01:44 PM

#8 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Location: back with a vengeance

Posts: 3,307

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

If I counted it right we'd have to call $316 in a pot of $520, getting ~5:3, have to win about 38% of the time to breakeven.

We're 40% against AK, KK+, and 18% against KK+.

So let's say we're against AK, KK+ 30% of the time, and we're against KK+ 50% of the time, and we're against 37o 20% of the time just for kicks (87% favorite).

This gives us an equity of 12 + 9 + 17.4 = 38.4%.

Seems pretty clear that we shouldn't call.

I don't get it. It looks like a tiny edge favoring a call. I'd also argue that metagame reasons take importance over minimizing veriance, also favoring a call. I also realize that you're weighting the hands screwy... in that giving the guy 37o (bluff) 20% is appreciated but unnecessary. The only real 'bluffs' here are hands like small pairs and Axs since they obviously can't take a flop but still have decent equity, and people for some reason sometimes 4-bet putting in nearly half their stack yet still consider folding a hand as strong as QQ. Anyway, Counting KK in the KK+ and AK/KK range is unfair unless he's playing against lukie, because then it is fairly accurate.

Even if we give the guy an absurdly tight range, and one that's ahead of KK equity wise, this is still a call. He pretty much has to be a nit that will only push KK/AA here to fold (certainly applies to some players).

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

287,667,072 games 0.313 secs 919,064,127 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.8574 % 39.64% 00.22% { QQ }
Hand 2: 60.1426 % 59.92% 00.22% { KK+, AKs, AKo }

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