|
Marshall28
|
06-09-2009, 09:38 PM
Post subject: Preflop shove or muck?
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
|
|
No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($200)
BB ($203)
UTG ($450.45)
MP ($232.90)
CO ($182.95)
Hero (Button) ($321.40)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K , A
UTG bets $10, 2 folds, Hero calls $10, SB raises $35, 2 folds
Total pot: $32
This may seem like a trivial decision, but I honestly think that it could be a fold...
UTG is only opening 7% Kapie is SB and at worst has AK/QQ+ here, I think he basically never has JJ or a bluff. Does that make this a fold?
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
ATOTHEC101
|
|
Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
|
|
ehhh I probs just call and see a flop seeing as we have position and a very strong hand that is behind his 5 bet shoving range, I don't think folding is terrible though.
|
|
"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
|
|
BigPapi
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Rotterdam, Holland
Posts: 437
|
|
I agree SB wouldnt bluff a lot here against UTG. But we still have 42% equity against SB's range w AKs. I assume UTG has folded already.
I think it's a call, because against his range we have no fold equity, like AtotheC says. And we're in position
|
|
|
|
Da GOAT
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
|
|
U can fold sure, too many ppl get attached to AK
|
|
Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
|
|
dsaxton
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
|
|
Yeah, I think calling seems good.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I don't know 1/2 regs by name but holy shit I shove fast
|
|
|
|
daven
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,818
|
|
folding here doesn't seem to be bad at all given reads.
You're giving him a range of 3xAA, 3xAK, 6xQQ, 9xAK that is weighted towards the strong end of things. Calling is bad cos you are likely to be unhappy with any flop...
|
|
|
|
Dueces88
|
|
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 21
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
I don't know 1/2 regs by name but holy shit I shove fast
|
I think this is a leak that I need to plug. I auto-shove AK way too much without looking at the details of the hand so far.
OP, if you are confident in your reads, then I'd go with the fold.
|
|
|
|
bikes
|
|
a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,468
|
|
Need to know more about how game flow is going tbh. But most likely I'd still fold.
|
|
"the world def needs more bikeses"
|
|
IowaSkinsFan
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
|
|
Unless you got some sort of timing tell or raise size tell id shove.
|
|
|
|
IowaSkinsFan
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
|
|
If your really have 42% equity against a range of QQ+, AK and your absolutely positive that is his range, then its still incredibly close, to the point where I think you have to take into consideration the fact that he may have JJ some small % of the time or some sort of bluff or AQ or something some very small % of the time.
|
|
|
|
bode
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
|
|
this is way closer to a shove than most of you are saying. Its def. a high variance spot, but a shove i think. Even if villains 3bet is strong because of an UTG opener, it's still a squeeze spot, and in the 1/2 games i'm used to people are def. doing this wider than QQ+/AK. And as ISF said, even if he throws in JJ or a complete bluff some small % of the time, i think this is a +EV spot to shove. Even nitty villains bluff, and he knows since he's squeezing vs an UTG opener that he will look strong and could be taking advantage of this.
|
Quote:
|
eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
|
|
|
DaGrinch
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Whoville
Posts: 26
|
|
I sure have learned a lot on FTR in the past two days ... like I apparently don't shove near enough. Being that it is 6 handed I don't think I can get away from this hand pre flop. I'd flat call and take advantage of position. Maybe an EV- play but you can't play 6 handed scared (IMO).
|
|
|
|
dsaxton
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by DaGrinch
I sure have learned a lot on FTR in the past two days ... like I apparently don't shove near enough. Being that it is 6 handed I don't think I can get away from this hand pre flop. I'd flat call and take advantage of position. Maybe an EV- play but you can't play 6 handed scared (IMO).
|
Yes, but there are some spots where A-K is not the nuts, even in 6-max. It may be right to shove in this spot, but it's not obviously right.
|
|
|
|
Da GOAT
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
|
|
42% vs QQ+,AKs,AKo
43% vs JJ+,AKs,AKo (this is ALL JJ holdings)
46% vs JJ+,AKs,AKo,A2s (again all JJ and A2s as the random decent
bluff)
So I fold unless someone does a calc to show based on odds etc that its +EV
|
|
Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
|
|
bode
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
|
|
im bad at EV equations, but i think we would have to be 46%. we are risking $190 to win $220, which we need to win 46% of the time. I think given some FE its a profitable shove.
|
Quote:
|
eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
|
|
|
mcatdog
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 3,654
|
|
UTG is a donk who raised 5x. Many (probably most) regs in the BB would NEVER 3bet such a player without JJ+ AK, maybe not even JJ. Why do people think we have any FE?
|
|
|
|
Da GOAT
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
|
|
id very much doubt we have any FE, im in the folding section of this thread btw mcat
|
|
Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by mcatdog
UTG is a donk who raised 5x. Many (probably most) regs in the BB would NEVER 3bet such a player without JJ+ AK, maybe not even JJ. Why do people think we have any FE?
|
I don't play at 1/2 but at NL100 that's basically not true, you'll shove and you'll get folds
Maybe it's people like Robb who are 3bing their AJo or something, idk, or maybe a badly-timed bluff. It could be that 100NL regs suck just a little bit more and are not really comfortable playing for stacks PF with less than QQ+,AK but will put in lots of 3bs because they read on 2p2 that it's a good thing. I mean I don't know this player so I don't know why he would only have QQ+,AK every time here.
|
|
|
|
bode
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by mcatdog
UTG is a donk who raised 5x. Many (probably most) regs in the BB would NEVER 3bet such a player without JJ+ AK, maybe not even JJ. Why do people think we have any FE?
|
I don't play at 1/2 but at NL100 that's basically not true, you'll shove and you'll get folds
Maybe it's people like Robb who are 3bing their AJo or something, idk, or maybe a badly-timed bluff. It could be that 100NL regs suck just a little bit more and are not really comfortable playing for stacks PF with less than QQ+,AK but will put in lots of 3bs because they read on 2p2 that it's a good thing. I mean I don't know this player so I don't know why he would only have QQ+,AK every time here. |
agreed. maybe marshall has a watertight read on this guy, but there are plenty of 1/2 regs i play against that squeeze here just because they have an opportunity.
and utg donk raising to 5x is supposed to be scary or something, i dont get it. Some donks minraise, some open raise any position to 7x.
|
Quote:
|
eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
06-02-2012, 08:10 PM Merge Network 6.0 Looks to Retain Current Player Base
Linear Mode
