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johnny_fish

06-16-2006, 11:38 AM Post subject: PP leak

#1 (permalink)

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35K hand sample, hands with exactly 6 players.

22-99, 1308 hands, 0.00 bb/hand.

pos / #hands / raise preflop / (bb/100)

All / 603 / yes / +13
EP / 225 / yes / +7
LP / 244 / yes / +34
LP / 169 / yes, raised first in / +70
blinds / 104 / yes / -20

All / 705 / no / -11
EP / 170 / no / +65
LP / 166 / no / -116 (!)
blinds / 369 / no / +2

Conclusions:
- Calling raises with low PP is -EV.
- Limping early is better than raising.
- Raising in LP after a limper(s) is -EV.

Thoughts?

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Irisheyes

06-16-2006, 12:08 PM Post subject: Re: PP leak

#2 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Conclusions:
- Calling raises with low PP is -EV.

Man I hope not but I can easily believe it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

- Limping early is better than raising.

I think this has alot more to do with cbets then it does pocket pairs. Whats your cbet frequency/sucess rate like?

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

- Raising in LP after a limper(s) is -EV.

Again because everyone is either a floater or a calling station.

Renton

06-16-2006, 12:14 PM Post subject: Re: PP leak

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Conclusions:
- Calling raises with low PP is -EV.
- Limping early is better than raising.
- Raising in LP after a limper(s) is -EV.

Calling raises with low PP is hugely +EV. You generally go to the flop with 50 odd percent pot equity (some of which is negated by post flop lack of playability), they are easy to get away from, and every now and then, you stack someone.

I think limping early with small pp is weak generally. At super-aggressive tables where the danger of a 3bet is too great, maybe. At a passive table you have to raise your pocket pairs, otherwise you will have some real trouble getting all in if you hit your set, with such little dead money at stake.

Raising after limpers is +EV as long as they are capable of folding sometimes. However, you need to have a pot of 10bb or so on the flop to get all in with a set against a one pair hand, so that still makes convincing arguments for raising behind anyway.

Plus, if you aren't raising your small pairs, then your raising range is probably going to appear a little too tight.

johnny_fish

06-16-2006, 12:47 PM

#4 (permalink)

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How can I see cbet succes rate?

First action after a preflop raise:

36% bet, 12% check, 46% no flop.

Quote:

You generally go to the flop with 50 odd percent pot equity (some of which is negated by post flop lack of playability),

Lack of playability is huge IMO. Anyway, let me rephrase: Calling raises HU with low PP is -EV. How about that?

Quote:

they are easy to get away from,

I might float too much..

Quote:

Plus, if you aren't raising your small pairs, then your raising range is probably going to appear a little too tight.

PFR is 12% already..

aislephive

06-16-2006, 08:44 PM

#5 (permalink)

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It depends, calling a button raise from the blinds HU with a PP probably isn't a very profitable play because he probably doesn't have much anyways. But an EP raise from a solid player, even if the pot is HU it's a very profitable call.

SinkRox

07-06-2006, 03:59 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

How can I see cbet succes rate?

Bumpy.. anyone know how to study CB's in poker tracker? I dont think its possible thru setting up a filter. Maybe it would need an SQL query?

Experimenting - 200NL 5max.

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natdang

07-06-2006, 09:07 AM

#7 (permalink)

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22-88 EP I limp-call, try to see flop cheaply
22-99 LP I raise, or call a pfr, especially on button
TT-AA I reraise pf from button/CO, unless situation calls for a trap (i.e. I know for sure the guy will c-bet into my AA)

Irisheyes

07-06-2006, 01:12 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by natdang

22-88 EP I limp-call, try to see flop cheaply

Raise all your pocket pairs in all positions excepth the blinds. Try it its cool. Limping after loose limpers isn't too bad.

Renton

07-06-2006, 03:27 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Quote:

Originally Posted by natdang

22-88 EP I limp-call, try to see flop cheaply

Raise all your pocket pairs in all positions. Try it its cool. Limping after loose limpers isn't too bad.

Yes, but also note the stack sizes. I will very often limp behind with a hand like 44 instead of put in my usual raise out of fear that someone with <50bb will call me and I will be in trouble.

SinkRox

07-06-2006, 04:17 PM

#10 (permalink)

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I dont know about EP limp-calling low PPs when PFR'er has a high PFR%. Your OOP so harder to extract value when you set, harder to steal the pot post flop, and their range is wide - often they may not have much PF and Post flop.

Experimenting - 200NL 5max.

"They say that dreams are real only as long as they last. Couldn't you say the same thing about life?" Waking life

johnny_fish

07-06-2006, 04:24 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SinkRox

I agree. Wide PFR range means low implied odds. I raise them now when first in, but also after 1-2 limpers. They're very profitable now, small sample size though at Party (18K hands, mostly 200NL, 22-99 are +1.00bb/hand).

gabe

07-06-2006, 04:45 PM

#12 (permalink)

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gabe is an unknown quantity at this point

i think all of your conclusions are wrong.

Irisheyes

07-06-2006, 04:53 PM

#13 (permalink)

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First one is correct but it's too wide a statement. I mean calling a button open raise with 22 in the BB is -EV for sure. Calling a 18/2 UTG raise with 77 on the Button is +EV.

Second two are wrong.

gabe

07-06-2006, 05:22 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

I mean calling a button open raise with 22 in the BB is -EV for sure.

ive talked to alot of people above my level and they disagree. in online 100bb capped games, sets are just too powerful. i think calling preflop is only -ev for people who can't win unimproved postflop, they just c/f whenever they miss.

Warpe

07-06-2006, 05:43 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

I mean calling a button open raise with 22 in the BB is -EV for sure.

Donking into the preflop raiser HU when the flop has likely missed them is +EV, imo. Acting after the button preflop and being first to act postflop is a tactical advantage too many people check away.

Renton

07-06-2006, 05:51 PM

#16 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

I mean calling a button open raise with 22 in the BB is -EV for sure.

This is a large argument for raising small pp's in all positions, since you can continuation bet the flop and cut out the bull. 22 figures to be a favorite after the flop against a random umpaired hand, but it's tough to win unimproved if you aren't the aggressor. Really the only other option is to float them, and that can get expensive if you choose to do it at inopportune times.

Irisheyes

07-06-2006, 06:02 PM

#17 (permalink)

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***** Hand History for Game 4654506410 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, July 04, 16:17:38 ET 2006
Table Table 107407 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: StandtallKK ( $293.70 )
Seat 2: howieebub ( $161.17 )
Seat 4: adamyor125 ( $286.58 )
Seat 5: lolYouFoldEZ ( $190 )
Seat 3: wsmith10 ( $200.71 )
Seat 6: cobb0716 ( $176.50 )
adamyor125 posts small blind [$1].
lolYouFoldEZ posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to lolYouFoldEZ [ 2h 2s ]
cobb0716 folds.
StandtallKK folds.
howieebub folds.
wsmith10 raises [$7].
adamyor125 folds.
lolYouFoldEZ ???

Whats the most +EV move for me here? Raise, fold or call.

Assume raiser is 30/20 with a Blind Steal Attempt stat of 33% Also I would consider myself to be better then the opponent. I am OOP remember.

Renton

07-06-2006, 06:34 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Call, or if he's capable of laying down to aggression (or if he's getting out of line) occasionally reraise. I think folding there sucks.

gabe

07-06-2006, 08:30 PM

#19 (permalink)

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i call there, sometimes raise but not very much

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