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IowaSkinsFan
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01-17-2007, 01:07 AM
Post subject: A possibility of a very tight fold
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Obviously this is Jeff from FTR very solid, running 21/18 but im sure he's tighter than this.
PokerStars Game #7975910063: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/16 - 20:59:41 (ET)
Table 'Imprinetta II' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: CodeRedRulez ($79.55 in chips)
Seat 2: redgrape ($206.95 in chips)
Seat 3: I_muck_smuck ($140.90 in chips)
Seat 5: anoroc ($81.05 in chips)
Seat 6: z8h4k9 ($187.55 in chips)
z8h4k9: posts small blind $0.50
CodeRedRulez: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Qc Qh]
redgrape: raises $3 to $4
I_muck_smuck: folds
anoroc: folds
z8h4k9: folds
CodeRedRulez: raises $12 to $16
texaspoker88 leaves the table
redgrape: How would you feel if I folded?
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
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I think folding is fine as long as you then tell him to re-buy so you can play some poker.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
I think folding is fine as long as you then tell him to re-buy so you can play some poker.
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He just lost a hand that's why he is a little short.
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JL
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,095
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I think folding this is disgusting...
I only fold this to a 10/2 and lower...
my PFR % is about 13%..and I re-raise AQ+,TT+ from any position. I think a 21/18 is re-raising more than this...even out of position like this is.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
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I'd go all-in or just call and check-push a good flop. Folding here would be horrendous. He's reraising with tons of hands that you have crushed, and given his raise size, it's unlikely he has A-A or K-K, since it looks like he doesn't mind winning the pot right here. I think you can expect him to have A-K or a middle pocket pair most of the time here.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
I think folding is fine as long as you then tell him to re-buy so you can play some poker.
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He just lost a hand that's why he is a little short. |
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elipsesjeff
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I think all the advice so far is pretty horrible with a hand like QQ in the 100 NL game.
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StinkyBeaver
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Denmark
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@ dsaxton
Remember that by check-psuhing a good flop lets Jeff plays perfect against your range though he might call with JJ.
Thus take a more reasonable line with QQ or you wont get enough value the times you are ahead.
Also why can't the big pockets be inthere.
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StinkyBeaver
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2005
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Nice fold Iowa and you know what i mean 
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by StinkyBeaver
Nice fold Iowa and you know what i mean |
it's really annoying when your drunken friends are telling you you have to take it all the way.
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elipsesjeff
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thats why i hate listening to friends who have no idea how to play.
What's better on the ensuing flop? You don't have odds to call for set value only (and I know this as the PFRer)so if you are going to call you're going to have to do something different than just push allin and hope I have AK. Just considering raising on the flop is either for 1)value or 2)bluff there really is only one way to play it, and only one way to play it if you're going to get stacked .
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dsaxton
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by StinkyBeaver
@ dsaxton
Remember that by check-psuhing a good flop lets Jeff plays perfect against your range though he might call with JJ.
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Once he reraises and bets the flop, the pot is so large that it practically doesn't matter if he almost never calls with a worse hand. The pot is worth winning with a raise regardless.
Besides, he isn't "playing perfectly" by betting around $25 on the flop with ace high or a lower pocket pair.
Your argument seems to suggest that we just play this completely passively and just check and call down, which intuitively seems wrong to me.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
thats why i hate listening to friends who have no idea how to play.
What's better on the ensuing flop? You don't have odds to call for set value only (and I know this as the PFRer)so if you are going to call you're going to have to do something different than just push allin and hope I have AK. Just considering raising on the flop is either for 1)value or 2)bluff there really is only one way to play it, and only one way to play it if you're going to get stacked .
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Are you really this nitty preflop in 6-max?
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Quote:
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Originally Posted by StinkyBeaver
Nice fold Iowa and you know what i mean |
it's really annoying when your drunken friends are telling you you have to take it all the way. |
What are you talking about, Danny? First of all, i wasn't drunk... i was high (if that point means anything lol). Secondly, i don't remember telling you to take it all the way, and if i did i definitely said "but don't listen to me."
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StinkyBeaver
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Flush
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@ dsaxton I'd take a check/call line over check/push any day of the week and twice on sunday.
Let Jeff hang himself the times when hes behind. At most you are fearing a 6 outer.
I don't see why the pot is worth putting your stack in and only getting called by a better hand here.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
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He will have about $65 going into the flop, at which point he'll probably bet $25, leaving him with only $40 left with $120 (the preflop pot plus Jeff's bet, our call and the uncalled raise) in the pot. Do you think he's folding an overpair? I don't think he's folding any hand that he would continue betting with on the turn, but the difference between check-raising and check-calling is that you give a free card to overcards by check-calling. There's also the possibility that he slows down on the turn after a scare card hits with a hand that would've put in more action on the flop. I really don't see how check-calling wins more or loses less than check-raising from any part of his range here, assuming that we have decided to play the hand all-in after the flop.
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
elipsesjeff wrote:
thats why i hate listening to friends who have no idea how to play.
What's better on the ensuing flop? You don't have odds to call for set value only (and I know this as the PFRer)so if you are going to call you're going to have to do something different than just push allin and hope I have AK. Just considering raising on the flop is either for 1)value or 2)bluff there really is only one way to play it, and only one way to play it if you're going to get stacked .
Are you really this nitty preflop in 6-max?
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My game is suited toward the game I'm in. A Tag 4xer preflop has a pretty defined range that QQ is either way ahead or way behind on most flops and makes it pretty easy to play, especially in position.
Quote:
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He will have about $65 going into the flop, at which point he'll probably bet $25, leaving him with only $40 left with $120 (the preflop pot plus Jeff's bet, our call and the uncalled raise) in the pot. Do you think he's folding an overpair? I don't think he's folding any hand that he would continue betting with on the turn, but the difference between check-raising and check-calling is that you give a free card to overcards by check-calling. There's also the possibility that he slows down on the turn after a scare card hits with a hand that would've put in more action on the flop. I really don't see how check-calling wins more or loses less than check-raising from any part of his range here, assuming that we have decided to play the hand all-in after the flop.
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?? I raise $16 (from the blinds, facing an UTG raiser!!) and he calls, theres going to be at most $33 into this flop. My Cbet is going to be around $23 or so (standard, but i actually made it a lot less when i knew what villain had). Thus, the pot will be $65 after my flop cbet, getting 3-1 to call or so, and I normally would have $60 behind but this time i have 40. raising here gives me an opportunity to fold my overcards on the flop as I would only be getting 3-1 with an unimproved AK and would not have the odds to call for my 6 outer.
The real difference between check/raising and check/calling is not we give him an opportunity to draw to 6 outs (of which we can still fold to if they hit), but the fact that when you raise allin, you lose your stack if i call and by calling you give me an opportunity to fire a second barrel with missed overcards.
FWIW, I very rarely get stacked with either JJ or QQ, in reraised pots, in position or out of position.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
?? I raise $16 (from the blinds, facing an UTG raiser!!) and he calls, theres going to be at most $33 into this flop. My Cbet is going to be around $23 or so (standard, but i actually made it a lot less when i knew what villain had). Thus, the pot will be $65 after my flop cbet, getting 3-1 to call or so, and I normally would have $60 behind but this time i have 40.
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Do you realize that the pot becomes larger when he calls your bet and then raises all-in? If you bet $23 and the pot is now at $65, he must first call your $23, so the pot is now at $88, and then raise the rest of your chips, which puts the pot at $128.
So, you will be risking $40 to win $128 if he check-raises all-in. You only have to win the pot slightly less than 1/4 of the time for this call to show positive expectation, so I hope for your sake that you aren't folding overpairs in this spot.
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elipsesjeff
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that is where i said 3-1, and it is incorrect for me to call with a whiffed AK/AQ. If I have TT or JJ in this spot given my nitty read of villain, I wont go any farther than the cbet I put in on flop, no matter if he raises or calls or not because the chances that he 1) calls my 4x preflop raise and then 2) raising/calling with a hand I beat on the flop when I have TT or JJ is so small that you wont win 1 in 4 to be correct. Thus making QQ a bit more difficult to play, but being in position helps. Either way, pushing at any point where I wouldn't be pot committed to call would be horrible, unless you want me to fold a worse hand.
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koolmoe
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
raising here gives me an opportunity to fold my overcards on the flop as I would only be getting 3-1 with an unimproved AK and would not have the odds to call for my 6 outer.
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If you knew exactly what opp held, 3-1 would be good enough odds, with 6 outs and 2 cards to come, wouldn't it?
Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
The real difference between check/raising and check/calling is not we give him an opportunity to draw to 6 outs (of which we can still fold to if they hit), but the fact that when you raise allin, you lose your stack if i call and by calling you give me an opportunity to fire a second barrel with missed overcards.
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You have to balance this with possibly letting your opponent steal with hands like TT or JJ when an A or a K hits on the turn. You're giving up a lot of equity in a big pot by potentially letting AK take free cards. Against AA or KK, you're getting stacked anyway, and you can stack TT or JJ on an undercard flop against most opponents.
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Fnord
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As a rule, if there is about pot (or less) left after I would call and I think a vulnerable hand figures to be good I just stick the rest in, as folding out a worse hand drawing live isn't a terrible result.
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by koolmoe
If you knew exactly what opp held, 3-1 would be good enough odds, with 6 outs and 2 cards to come, wouldn't it?
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No, I would only be 24% favorite to win with AK vs QQ on an all undercard board on the flop.
Quote:
You have to balance this with possibly letting your opponent steal with hands like TT or JJ when an A or a K hits on the turn. You're giving up a lot of equity in a big pot by potentially letting AK take free cards. Against AA or KK, you're getting stacked anyway, and you can stack TT or JJ on an undercard flop against most opponents.
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Most players at the 100 game don't get stacked with JJ or TT, at least to me. Also, Tags with 21/18 (which are wrong, they are more 21/14) stats don't tend to stack off with marginal hands like JJ, TT, or QQ for that matter. I think stacking off with TT-QQ with only top pair is a pretty big leak, especially against a fairly standard TAG such as myself. Even bigger if you're the one doing the betting.
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Lukie
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Iowa, what kind of (weighted) range do you put jeff on here?
I think anybody that says TT+/AQ+ is being far too generous.
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koolmoe
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
No, I would only be 24% favorite to win with AK vs QQ on an all undercard board on the flop.
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40/168 = 23.8%
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Most players at the 100 game don't get stacked with JJ or TT, at least to me. Also, Tags with 21/18 (which are wrong, they are more 21/14) stats don't tend to stack off with marginal hands like JJ, TT, or QQ for that matter. I think stacking off with TT-QQ with only top pair is a pretty big leak, especially against a fairly standard TAG such as myself. Even bigger if you're the one doing the betting.
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OK, even if JJ or TT won't stack off, you still have to check raise all-in because only a moron would bluff the turn with AK unimproved against an opponent representing an overpair when the pot will be laying 4:1. I would much rather take the pot down on the flop than be faced with a crying call getting 4:1 when an A or K hits the turn.
If my opponent sticks that much money in the pot and is willing to fold getting 3:1 with two cards to come, you'd better believe I will use that information to my advantage.
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Poker is freedom
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koolmoe
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
I think anybody that says TT+/AQ+ is being far too generous.
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You think it's tighter than that? I'd guess much looser. At least if it were me three betting it would be.
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Poker is freedom
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
Iowa, what kind of (weighted) range do you put jeff on here?
I think anybody that says TT+/AQ+ is being far too generous.
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This is why I thought I should just muck this preflop, I put him on AA a lot here, KK-QQ not as much, and barely ever JJ and AK. I mean seriously, Jeff knows I'm not playing out of line UTG, His raise even tells me that. His raise says to me that I know you got something and know you will call up to $16 with it.
AA 60%, KK-QQ 30%, AK-JJ 10%. I have no equity against AK and I'm folding most flops against JJ, as well as JJ easily folding to my push preflop.
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koolmoe
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I'm not playing out of line UTG
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What exactly does this mean? Surely QQ isn't at the bottom of your range...
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Poker is freedom
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
Iowa, what kind of (weighted) range do you put jeff on here?
I think anybody that says TT+/AQ+ is being far too generous.
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This is why I thought I should just muck this preflop, I put him on AA a lot here, KK-QQ not as much, and barely ever JJ and AK. I mean seriously, Jeff knows I'm not playing out of line UTG, His raise even tells me that. His raise says to me that I know you got something and know you will call up to $16 with it.
AA 60%, KK-QQ 30%, AK-JJ 10%. I have no equity against AK and I'm folding most flops against JJ, as well as JJ easily folding to my push preflop. |
This is a pretty good analysis, although AA-JJ would rank the same as would AK and AQ. I think the call preflop is very good with your hand. But most of this discussion has been based on postflop play which you haven't posted.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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Well pretty much postflop it came T96, and Jeff did a good job throwing me off leading out half pot, which I thought of as him leaking the fact that he didn't have a good hand. So I pushed.
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