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Jager
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03-28-2007, 08:46 PM
Post subject: Playing more hands = lower winrate??
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 754
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My theory here is that the more hands you play in a short amount of time, your winrate will be lower than if you played the same number of hands over a greater time frame. For example, assume both players are the same skill level, if you were to play 3k+ hands per day for about 100k hands per month your winrate will be lower than someone who only plays 20k hands per month plays 1kish sessions and takes several days off from playing. My theory only applies to those who play an extreme amount regularly over several days/weeks. I am thinking that this may be true because the 'extreme' player needs to be much much more mentally strong to maintain concentration and avoid tilt, spew, and just not being able to always play his A-game. The other player maintains full concentration every time he sits down to play, as he knows it will only be for 1-2 hours a couple days a week, he is able to always play his A-game, thus he will have a higher winrate.
Any opinions on this??
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Trikflow77
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: im so asian
Posts: 1,460
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i think most players that play volume would agree with this, i know it is true for me.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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You're probably right.
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Yeah, but also higher hourly rate, quicker variance balancing, lower depression factor.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ash256
Yeah, but also higher hourly rate, quicker variance balancing, lower depression factor.
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he's just talking about playing more hands not more tables.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Sounds kinda hogwashish of a theory.
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,567
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i TOTALLY agree with this.
i haven't tried playing a ton of tables many times, but believe i have better concentration and game selection (equating to higher winrate w/ less variance) by 3-4 tabling when i feel in a good mood, compared with someone with the same skill or even slightly more skill playing a ton of tables all the time.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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We arent talking about MT ratio during the given month. We're talking primarily about hours played given the same MT ratio. Jager believes that someone who only plays 60 hours a month will have a higher winrate than someone that plays 120 hours a month, given they have the same MT Ratio.
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,567
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well i didn't mean only MT ratio...but higher MT ratio is correlated to more hands in a given time frame, which is what jager's theory was about.
but i still think that if 2 ppl have the same MT ratio and skill, but one plays when they're focused and in a good mood for it, and the other plays every day for 3k hands no matter what, the first person will have a better winrate.
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Halv
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pro crastinator
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: No hindsight for the blind.
Posts: 1,842
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The guy who puts in the most hands over the same time period will gain experience faster and thus hopefully increase his skillset faster. If our poker lives were infinitely long this would even itself out, but they aren't. Also to consider is that the games are getting tougher so the hands that the high volume player puts in today are going to be more profitable than the hands the low volume player puts in next week.
The real problem for the high volume player is burnout.
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