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I Like Pie
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06-14-2007, 01:25 AM
Post subject: Playing AA with a dirty flop out of position
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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This flop must of have hit him right in the face. How do you proceed with this?
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Hero ($193)
UTG ($115.35)
MP ($36)
CO ($125.40)
Button ($150.45)
SB ($100.60)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A , A .
UTG raises to $3.5, 4 folds, Hero raises to $18, UTG calls $14.50.
Flop: ($36.50) J, K , T (2 players)
Hero...
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Bet out and proceed with caution. Dont put too much more in if he sticks around.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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check/fold
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
check/fold
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what?!
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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Hmm Fnord I was saying you were right, but as AK (and QQ..and maybe even AQ) is in villains range, shouldn't we at least be trying to see a turn?
Or do we always have to fold to a flop raise, and AK and QQ will always raise this flop....as will anything that beats us.
(isn't AK, QQ, plus maybe AQ the biggest part of villains range?)
Maybe c/c flop, fold turn? Or block bet turn?
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I Like Pie
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
Hmm Fnord I was saying you were right, but as AK (and QQ..and maybe even AQ) is in villains range, shouldn't we at least be trying to see a turn?
Or do we always have to fold to a flop raise, and AK and QQ will always raise this flop....as will anything that beats us.
(isn't AK, QQ, plus maybe AQ the biggest part of villains range?)
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If he has AQ we're screwed too.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Im sure if we bet out say $20, he folds often enough for this to be goot.
Say he has:
Calls | Folds | Folds
TT/JJ/KK | QQ/AK | low PP/SCs 10%
Then he has a calling hand 12 times, and a folding hand 18 times (ignoring the junk) so Its worth betting.
If he never folds AK then its
Calls | Folds
TT/JJ/KK/AK | QQ / low PPs/SCs
Calls 18, Folds 12.
Calls 18/30 * 0.9 = 54%
Folds 12/30 *0.9 + 0.1(from the junk) = 46%
I think we get immediate value from making a cbet of $20 or so. (Using these percentages it comes out to be about +$9). Add to that the fact that if he just calls we still have a probably 2 outs to the full pot AND we disguise the times we flop the set/straight and I think a bet is pretty mandatory as long as we don't continue if called/raised.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by I Like Pie
Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
Hmm Fnord I was saying you were right, but as AK (and QQ..and maybe even AQ) is in villains range, shouldn't we at least be trying to see a turn?
Or do we always have to fold to a flop raise, and AK and QQ will always raise this flop....as will anything that beats us.
(isn't AK, QQ, plus maybe AQ the biggest part of villains range?)
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If he has AQ we're screwed too. |
Hehehe, I say C/F!!
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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I think we're making too many assumptions on utg's range, without knowing any reads/stats. You have any stats on villain?
I mean, I agree that hero re-raised it hard, so we have to narrow his range somewhat on the PF call. But I think there are a lot of ppl calling with low pairs here, thinking they have odds for a set etc.. that we shouldn't just be check/folding so easily?
I agree fold to resistance.. but certainly not give up right away!
I'm with pelion on this one.. bet out.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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i just think C/F is giving up too easily. why are you not putting 22-99 in their range?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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why not bet fold or is that to shitty?
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I Like Pie
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by I Like Pie
35/25/1.5 over 40 hands
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bet
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by I Like Pie
Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands
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35/25 is raising a wiiiiide range from UTG.. so for sure bet!
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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He is just as scared of this board as you are.
Either it hit him, or it didn't. Even if you think he has a wide range you should check, because he won't bluff on this board. You are ahead of exactly everything that folds, and behind almost everything that calls - the exception being exactly AK/KQ or club draw.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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bet/fold or c/c
c/f turn either way tho unless hes crazy
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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Bet $20 and fold to a re-raise. There's a lot in his range that has us dead, but just as much that we're ahead. I think either he folds to your bet and or he calls/re-raises with us behind or close to it.
I think the worst thing to do is check/call as we have no clue where he is at.
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jtleon
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 24
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Quote:
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Originally Posted by I Like Pie
Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands
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35/25 is raising a wiiiiide range from UTG.. so for sure bet! |
Im not sure. vp$ip is 35 and pfr is 25?
how can we tell he is raising with wide range from UTG?
vp$ip and pfr data is combination of voluntarily put $ into pot and pre-flop raise from all position.
villian could be vp$ip and pfr alot from other position and not UTG?
any advice. Thanks
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
He is just as scared of this board as you are.
Either it hit him, or it didn't. Even if you think he has a wide range you should check, because he won't bluff on this board. You are ahead of exactly everything that folds, and behind almost everything that calls - the exception being exactly AK/KQ or club draw.
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He seems pretty aggro. Dont you think we'll get bluffed off if we check/fold
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jtleon
Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Quote:
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Originally Posted by I Like Pie
Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands
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35/25 is raising a wiiiiide range from UTG.. so for sure bet! |
Im not sure. vp$ip is 35 and pfr is 25?
how can we tell he is raising with wide range from UTG?
vp$ip and pfr data is combination of voluntarily put $ into pot and pre-flop raise from all position.
villian could be vp$ip and pfr alot from other position and not UTG?
any advice. Thanks |
I guess I'm just judging by my stats. But I run about 25/20, and I'm raising all pocket pairs UTG, and some suited connectors sometimes and even some weaker suited aces. His stats are looser than mine, so I'd imagine his range is larger than my UTG range.
Its possible that he's tighter than me UTG, but his range would be similar I'd think.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,567
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i would prob c/c the flop. not sure about the turn, but c/f might be best.
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Geanosssss
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 403
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check/fold is dumb
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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how is that 3wpp? Do articles not count? Is "is" an article?
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
how is that 3wpp? Do articles not count? Is "is" an article?
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i t * p r o b a b l y * c o u n t s * c h a r a c t e r s * a n d * d i v i d e s * b y * 5 * o r * 3 * s o * p o s t s * l i k e * t h i s * d o n ' t * c o u n t * a s * 9 0 * w o r d s
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