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Lukie
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06-08-2006, 03:42 AM
Post subject: Plan: Make him fold a set.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Villain is 24/11, and seems fairly aggro and solid. Had about 200 or so hands on him, and he's a big winner over that time period. At this time I was playing a bit laggier then normal for me, but still tagg. I think I was like 18/18 over 50 hands or something like that. So tight, aggro, whatever.
Ok so preflop is fine/laggy, flop call is loose, turn and river might be spew. Whatever. LET'S HEAR IT! And yes, I'd be thrilled to push a flush on the river here, trust me.
Also, important decision number 2. If he folds, do I show? I have the option to show turned off, is it worth it to turn it on and show here? (I think the answer is no on both accounts, but I want your opinions).
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Button ($370.90)
SB ($216.75)
BB ($281.85)
UTG ($145.35)
MP ($740)
Hero ($200)
Preflop: Hero is CO with T , 9 .
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, Button calls $7, SB calls $6, BB calls $5.
Flop: ($28) 8 , 6 , 5 (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $12, Hero calls $12, Button folds, SB folds.
Turn: ($52) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $35, BB calls $35.
River: ($122) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $146 (All-In)...
edit: title is kind of misleading since I don't think he always has a set, I just think it is a decent part of his range. Just thought I'd add that in.
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
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Scary board. However, I don't like the all in. Screams I don't want a call. I'd rather make it look like a value bet unless you think he will crying call.
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LOL OPERATIONS
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
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I pity the fool that thinks an overbet push on the river from Lukie screams that he doesn't want a call.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
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nh sir
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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maybe bet the turn a LITTLE more.
BTW I am reading the "Turn and River Bluffs" section in NLHE: Theory and Practice" right now.
According to it, you would have greater ev by betting almost pot on the turn leaving an amount the size of the river pot behind to push in afterward.
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UG
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,855
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Opponent has 77 and has a straight. He folds because you're claiming to have a spade flush, and you are a nit and obviously wouldn't bet like this unless you had the flush, or so he thinks.
Damn I'm good.
EDIT: and damn you're good, nh
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
maybe bet the turn a LITTLE more.
BTW I am reading the "Turn and River Bluffs" section in NLHE: Theory and Practice" right now.
According to it, you would have greater ev by betting almost pot on the turn leaving an amount the size of the river pot behind to push in afterward.
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I actually think this is good advice, but can you explain why I'd definitively have a greater EV by betting more on the turn, and pot on the river?
It's entirely dependant on how much this guy folds, and a book can't tell you that.
fwiw, my pot size manipulation looks really sloppy, but it was done intentionally as I felt this guy would be more likely to be 'convinced' I guess you could say if the river was a slight overbet.
The biggest issue here is whether or not he will give me credit for the flush since I just called on the flop, IMO. Oh, and that he might have one himself...
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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Well it all depends on whether its a good bluff in the first place.
I don't think your FE would change at all when changing the effective amount of the river bet from 1.25 pot to full pot.
Its highly doubtful that he had any intentions of folding to the turn bet regardless of size, so its basically a "value bet" on your part. You get more money in when you plan to take it away on the river.
If your fold equity on the river is in the profitable zone, then its simply 15 or so dollars more profitable if you bet more on the turn.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
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Seems good.
I think the turn is a good opportunity to make a "value bluff" of around half the pot. I'd make a bet that might cause him to fold, but one which I don't even really mind if he calls, since he can't call a substantial river bet anyways. If he does call, then I make a large bluff on the river (as you did), and I win more than if he'd folded on the turn. You also risk the minimum when he has a very weak hand and just folds the turn.
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Gareth
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: FlopTurnRivered
Posts: 246
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nh
What did you plan on doing if the river paired the board?
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"To see what is right, and not to do it, is want of courage or of principle." - Confucius
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
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Vnh.
I'm quite sure he wouldn't check the river with a flush. 7x is unlikely too, and even if he has it, he will fold alot. Sets/2p can't call. Yey position!
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Gareth
nh
What did you plan on doing if the river paired the board?
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give up. The guy seemed reasonably tight, led out on the flop in a 4 way raised pot, then check/called on a 4-straight, 3-flush turn.
To be honest, if the board had paired, and he checked, it would have been a surprise. I'd check behind and show my ten-high.
For the results oriented, he went into the tank and folded, in the meantime I pulled up my stars menu and unclicked the never show option. I hadn't shown a hand in at least 100k hands or so. Thoughts on the show? I think showing is bad in spots like this, but it seemed like a good idea at the time.
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
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Showing is ok I guess. Just tighten up a little after you do.
Anyway, showing big bluffs only draws attention to you. Making opps aware = -EV.
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Gareth
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: FlopTurnRivered
Posts: 246
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Gareth
nh
What did you plan on doing if the river paired the board?
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give up. The guy seemed reasonably tight, led out on the flop in a 4 way raised pot, then check/called on a 4-straight, 3-flush turn.
To be honest, if the board had paired, and he checked, it would have been a surprise. I'd check behind and show my ten-high.
For the results oriented, he went into the tank and folded, in the meantime I pulled up my stars menu and unclicked the never show option. I hadn't shown a hand in at least 100k hands or so. Thoughts on the show? I think showing is bad in spots like this, but it seemed like a good idea at the time. |
Yeah agree, was just wondering if you would have been tempted by a check to bet again.
I think in the short term it will work to your advantage showing a bluff like this but in the long term unless you take a note on every player at this table (that you showed this bluff) and never play a hand like this against them it will cost you $$$ in future situations.
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"To see what is right, and not to do it, is want of courage or of principle." - Confucius
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Showing might be good if he's a player that tilts easily.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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standard
if your gona show, you need to show opp both the hand and a bluff, then he wont have a clue what you have 
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
standard
if your gona show, you need to show opp both the hand and a bluff, then he wont have a clue what you have |
If you almost always have a hand when you're making these plays, you want to maximize the chances of him putting you on a bluff next time you do it.
In general, I don't think you should ever show a big hand when your opponent correctly folds to a large bet.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
standard
if your gona show, you need to show opp both the hand and a bluff, then he wont have a clue what you have |
If you almost always have a hand when you're making these plays, you want to maximize the chances of him putting you on a bluff next time you do it.
In general, I don't think you should ever show a big hand when your opponent correctly folds to a large bet. |
very true point
I guess it depends on whether im able to steal a number of pots off this type of opponent or not. If im not winning a lot i want him to fold to the bluff a lot, otherwise im want him to call obviously.
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andr3w321
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
Posts: 413
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I would have given up on this hand when 5 people saw the flop and all you hit was a gutshot but thats just me.
As for whether you show or not, I think it depends what your requirements for making giant overbets this usually are, if you usually only do it with sets then yeah I'd show. If you tend to push draws of any kind on occasion then there's no reason to show this.
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Wyvver
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Straight
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 125
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Probably would have folded the hand early on as well, but your play was impressive.
I wouldnt show the hand because you never showed your hands before, so if you now show him a big bluff, he could think both:
Either he realises why you showed the hand and will expect you to have a hand next time, or thinks your bluffing him alot.
But since you cant be sure, you would be better off making him think he made a good laydown (which he did I think?). At least then you know what he thinks.
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- Don't Panic -
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Very good point there Wyvver. It looks great on paper to show a bluff to get more action later.. but reality is different. If you do this, you'll often be screwing yourself just as much. A bit later he plays back at you.. does he have the nuts or is he playing different now because he got riled up by seeing your bluff? He used to be somewhat predictable and now you don't know anymore.
I mean, it would be great if everytime I show a bluff, I get the nuts a bit later and some schmo will call me down with air because he thinks I'm bluffing.. and then there is reality.
So yeah, don't show your bluffs unless you're playing like a nit most of the time..
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pgil
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,103
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i realize this is a mini-bump, but i didnt want to start another 'what about showing this bluff' thread, so i just decided to piggyback onto this one.
basically, i raised from the button when it folded around, and got minreraised from the SB, who hadnt really done much, but neither had I. I called, and the flop came A high. Opp lead for 1/2 pot, and i raised 3x his bet, he folded his KK (clearly has KK or QQ, but most likely KK) and I showed my 56o. standard play.
question is obviously about showing the bluff. I have been playing tight, but also havent really been gettting hands. it is full ring, so if i do finally get a hand, i dont want everyone to just fold to me (as usually happens in these situations), i want them to at least question whether i have it. plus i was involved in a very aggressive 5-max table that was occupying most of my attention. the guy clearly tilted after this, as was evident from the chat box. i dont usually show my bluffs, but thought that this was a prime opportunity to do so. the only drawback being this guy is on my left, and has position on me for all but 1 hand in each round, so it means i cant open up without a hand that can stand some pressure if he decides to play back at me the next time i enter.
thoughts.
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"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce
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paulwright
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: World Citizen
Posts: 130
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FWIW - when someone shows me a bluff I tend to pay extra attention to that player from there on out. If they give me a little information on how they play - I figure I can get more and keep a closer eye on them.
I certainly do not want extra attention on me, having people trying to work my game out, or thinking about me at all - thats my philosophy for generally not showing bluffs...
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
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Location: St. Louis
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
in the meantime I pulled up my stars menu and unclicked the never show option. I hadn't shown a hand in at least 100k hands or so. Thoughts on the show? I think showing is bad in spots like this, but it seemed like a good idea at the time.
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Bah... You were proud of your bluff and showed for your own ego (not that I don't do it from time to time). The only argument I can make for showing is for advertising purposes. The fact that it was an isolated incident and the fact that only a couple players saw (when you regularly play with thousands), gives a show little/no value IMO. Besides, you're too much of a nit-at-heart to take advantage of any advertising value it might have had.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
in the meantime I pulled up my stars menu and unclicked the never show option. I hadn't shown a hand in at least 100k hands or so. Thoughts on the show? I think showing is bad in spots like this, but it seemed like a good idea at the time.
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Bah... You were proud of your bluff and showed for your own ego (not that I don't do it from time to time). The only argument I can make for showing is for advertising purposes. The fact that it was an isolated incident and the fact that only a couple players saw (when you regularly play with thousands), gives a show little/no value IMO. Besides, you're too much of a nit-at-heart to take advantage of any advertising value it might have had. |
I am probably one of the most agressive players in the stars 2/4 game (don't confuse tight/loose with passive/agressive).
I still don't understand this stigma about me...
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pgil
i realize this is a mini-bump, but i didnt want to start another 'what about showing this bluff' thread, so i just decided to piggyback onto this one.
basically, i raised from the button when it folded around, and got minreraised from the SB, who hadnt really done much, but neither had I. I called, and the flop came A high. Opp lead for 1/2 pot, and i raised 3x his bet, he folded his KK (clearly has KK or QQ, but most likely KK) and I showed my 56o. standard play.
question is obviously about showing the bluff. I have been playing tight, but also havent really been gettting hands. it is full ring, so if i do finally get a hand, i dont want everyone to just fold to me (as usually happens in these situations), i want them to at least question whether i have it. plus i was involved in a very aggressive 5-max table that was occupying most of my attention. the guy clearly tilted after this, as was evident from the chat box. i dont usually show my bluffs, but thought that this was a prime opportunity to do so. the only drawback being this guy is on my left, and has position on me for all but 1 hand in each round, so it means i cant open up without a hand that can stand some pressure if he decides to play back at me the next time i enter.
thoughts.
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I tend to think that against bad players, showing is ok. Whereas if you show a bluff to a good player for 'advertising purposes', you are just giving them information about how you think, and they are probably thinking, 'ok, this guy showed a bluff, now he wants to tighten up and get paid'.
FWIW, I don't ever show a hand in cash games, ever. And I only play cash games. 
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