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Numbr2intheWorld
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06-06-2007, 07:52 PM
Post subject: Pair and nut flush draw with little FE...
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Villain in this hand is unknown. I really want to push here, even though i have little FE (i doubt he's folding a K), because:
1. I could actually have the best hand right now and i don't want to have to fold it.
2. I know pushing is +EV just because of how many outs i have.
3. I'm not sure if i can make my hand more +EV by calling here and playing on later streets because i don't know the villains tendencies...
Is this bad logic?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
UTG ($18.05)
Hero ($169)
CO ($118.05)
Button ($51.15)
SB ($151.70)
BB ($113.30)
Preflop: Hero is MP with J , A .
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, CO calls $8, 3 folds.
Flop: ($19) J, K, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $14, CO raises to $28, [color=#CC3333]Hero ???
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silu73
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 1,009
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I'm not folding and I'm not calling, so I'm pretty sure pushing is the best option. Mini-raises on this flop often mean "I know flopped flushes are rare and I have at least a pair or a diamond". A push would tell him "whatever you hold I have outs".
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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I think pushing here is good because you are OOP.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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I would re-raise to 60 and shove the turn.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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insta insta insta insta insta insta shove
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,567
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i like your logic.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Reads are pretty irrelevant. You have a big hand with which you should gamble given the reasonably shallow stacks.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I dont get it. We almost never have the winning hand, but we are ahead a lot, and we have almost no FE. Why not just take our 14 outs? I dont expect to get blown out of the pot from a guy who just minraised.
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miracleriver
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 173
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I would re-raise to 60 and shove the turn.
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I get that if villain calls your re-raising to 60, he's left with $50.00 with a $139.00 pot and thus you get the odds to shove on the turn (putting some 26% of the pot with 30% chance to make your hand). It seems you re-raise b/c you want the action and the re-raise is more likely to be called than the all-in re-raise, and it will pot-commit villain anways. But what if a K comes on the turn? The Aces may no longer be outs, and then you don't get the odds to shove? Then what do you do?
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,567
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I dont get it. We almost never have the winning hand, but we are ahead a lot, and we have almost no FE. Why not just take our 14 outs? I dont expect to get blown out of the pot from a guy who just minraised.
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short stacks play so random, i bet we have the best hand at least 10% of the time, and it just sucks checking the turn and prob folding the 2/3 time the draw misses.
just push the flop and get full equity out of the hand.
miracleriver- i think fnord didn't notice CO has a short stack.
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