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Monty9
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09-08-2005, 12:14 PM
Post subject: NL Variance, How high should it be?
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: new jwesey
Posts: 255
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I have been experiencing high swings in variance the past 2 weeks, $ 200 to $300 swings.
I started playing NL ring mostly short handed about 2 weeks ago. I started at 25 & 50NL and did OK, up & down, kind of holding my own.
On a dare I tried 100NL and had a great weekend netting $350. I cashed out $300 ( to appease my wife) and left $150 to play with. After taking a week off I returned and played 25NL to build the BR back up and proceeded to loose most of it. I redeposited the $300 ( don’t tell the wife ) and proceeded to loose most of that till I was down to $100.
Jumped back into 100NL over the weekend and pushed BR up to $450.
Sunday night; lost $250. 100NL
Monday night; lost $150. 50NL
Last night; back up to $400 playing 50NL.
Am I doing something wrong? Just getting lucky when I win? I can only remember 2 really bad beats through out this that cost me about 75 to 100 each; the rest was just getting ground down.
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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High variance is a result of taking more risks. Playing for big chunks when you're slightly ahead. It's a result of being more aggressive, less conservative. Raising your draws in position for the fold equity. Coming over the top of weakness. Stuff like that. In a nutshell, variance is pushing large on small edges. Some people prefer it. It's correct in it's own way.
Your variance probably has everything to do with how you play. I always come back to the age old EV riddle presented here months ago...
You have Qs Qh. You and two other stacks have $150. You raise to $10 preflop on the button and get two callers in SB and BB. The flop comes out 7c 9c Qc. Immediately SB goes all in for $140, and BB calls $140. Including dead anties, there's now $316 in the pot and you have $140 left to potentially put in on a suited flop holding top set. What's your move?
The answer is it's correct to call because of the odds of pairing the board + quad outs vs the pot. It's +EV.
It's a call I wouldn't make. Would you? This is an extreme example, but variance has a lot to do with how much you want to risk in the name of +EV.
How much do you push around with a small edge on the flop?
Basically it sounds like you're not a grinder. You prefer the action on the front line.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
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I can't imagine that switching backwards and forwards between limits is helping your game. Not only can you not get a consistent feel for each limit (close in quality thought they may well be), but it also implies that there is some psychological factor behind which BB you choose. Stick with one (the lower one in all probability) and move up a level when you can afford to (i.e., by implication, when you've become a consistent winner at the lower level).
Secondly, it sounds like you're playing way outside your bankroll. Even if you minimise variance by avoiding high-risk/tight margin plays, variance WILL still bite you on the arse. What happend when this $100/$300/$400 is gone? Will you just reload as if nothing happened? Or will you be banned from the tables forever?
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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variance will be as high or low as you make it. If you play 1 table a day, your variance won't be as much. If you play 5 tables for 8 hours a day, you better have a solid game plan or you're gonna piss money like its water.
also, playing $100 NL on a ~$400 bankroll is asking to go broke
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take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=4971
Rilla's BR management
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lolzzz_321
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NO YOU
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: My ice is polarized
Posts: 2,797
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmontis
variance will be as high or low as you make it. If you play 1 table a day, your variance won't be as much. If you play 5 tables for 8 hours a day, you better have a solid game plan or you're gonna piss money like its water.
also, playing $100 NL on a ~$400 bankroll is asking to go broke
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Variance is less with more tables.
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