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meeloche
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05-27-2008, 06:35 PM
Post subject: nfd +overs to cold caller
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,131
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I haven't played with villain before today. His stats over a small sample are 16/13.
edit{utg is a fish that i was isoing}
I have been very active this orbit. I have 3 bet him a couple of times to which he has folded, I have also 3 bet and 4 bet others to which they have all folded.
Is calling better than shoving?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
SB ($183)
BB ($200)
UTG ($186.05)
MP ($203)
Hero ($479)
Preflop: Hero is Button with T , A.
UTG raises to $8, 1 fold, Hero raises to $26, 1 fold, BB calls $24, UTG folds.
Flop: ($61) 7 , 5, 3 (2 players)
BB bets $40, Hero?
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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shove, win coinflip.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Your ten is probably no good, and I don't read much fold equity here either. Keep that in mind when you make your decision. Still might be a push.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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I dont completely agree with the arguement of no fold equity as i can see the bb attempting to buy this pot with a frustrated aq,ak here alot, also i feel he should fold to a decent raise to around 135 with 99-jj though thats possibly a tad optimistic. Of course theres always the chance hes trapping with kk-aa but with your many outs id still be relatively happy about getting this in hoping to force a fold and if called being a 60 40 dog.
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I don't think there's NO fold equity, I just think it's fairly low. Donking into a three-bettor like that is a pretty serious move unless villain is just a total moron. I think it's very likely he has an overpair, possibly something in the TT-QQ range, and I think if he has any conception of hero's described table image, he won't want to let it go.
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JL
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,095
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Looks like a simple donk bet to "see where he's at" with a hand like 88-JJ.
Just do what ever you normally do with AA/KK in this spot.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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raise to one hundred dollars, ship it in
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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There is tons of fold equity, just shove it in
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,837
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They love to put you on AK when you 3 bet. he's testing. If he wanted your money he would have C/R knowing as a 3 better you need to bet this flop. He's hoping you give up your AK vs his 22-99 without a fight. I pop him to $100 or so as Alexos said and call a shove.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
I don't think there's NO fold equity, I just think it's fairly low. Donking into a three-bettor like that is a pretty serious move unless villain is just a total moron. I think it's very likely he has an overpair, possibly something in the TT-QQ range, and I think if he has any conception of hero's described table image, he won't want to let it go.
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i think this nails it, and i think 99/88 can be in his range here too given your recent history at the table.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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I think we shove or fold but I hate folding so I shove. We miss the turn too much and the flush we won't get paid off on.
If he does have JJ/1010, we're close equity wise and I do think he folds 88, 99. He may even call behind with a FD like KQ out of anger.
I think also imagewise its ev+ to show strength in your 3bet pots. If this is the first 3bet pot that has seen a flop in long time you've been involved, just folding to a donk lead like this is gonna damage your image heavily. Folding here means you will have to tighten up your 3b range considerably for a few orbits.
Now if he calls and we lose, its actually great imagewise (of course best is he calls and we win). You can tighten up and gamble it up as people will be widing your range vs. you while you tighten up, making you extra monies.
I doubt he has a set, as I'm sure he wants to let you bet/spew. This seems like a defensive bet from a weak overpair that wants you to fold your Ax which makes up the majority of your range.
All in all shove seems like easily the best option.
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