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NFD OOP vs sTAG

  
 
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Silly String
Old 10-07-2008, 09:11 PM     Post subject: NFD OOP vs sTAG #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 24/21/3.7 over about 100 hands.
No real reads other than he has 3bet my LP raises in resteal positions twice and I folded to both. I get the impression that he is somewhat aggro for these stakes, but I don't have any specific reads to back that up.

My image is clean other than a high steal %. I discount a pure float here as I have been playing rather tight. He realistically can't be on AK here. Is this a good place to CRAI the turn?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($90.05)
BB ($44)
UTG ($32.70)
Hero (MP) ($158.40)
CO ($98.50)
Button ($130.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, A
UTG calls $1, Hero raises $4, 1 fold, Button calls $4, 3 folds

Flop: ($10.50) 2, 7, K (2 players)
Hero bets $8, Button calls $8

Turn: ($26.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $19, Hero CRAI?
Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 10-07-2008, 09:18 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 stack sizes say no
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Galapogos
Old 10-07-2008, 10:59 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
stack sizes say no
Yeah that'd be a weird overbet. Better off just continuing the lead on the turn.


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I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
 
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ihategnomes
Old 10-08-2008, 01:52 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Galapogos
Yeah that'd be a weird overbet. Better off just continuing the lead on the turn.
QFT.
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Silly String
Old 10-08-2008, 01:11 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I'm not sure leading the turn is prudent. I would discount his ability to be on a pure bluff float for the aforementioned reasons, but that leaves him w/ K9s+, KJ+, 22, 77-99, 87s, & a few heart draws. Pokerstove says:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,892 games 0.047 secs 40,255 games/sec

Board: Kh 7d 2h 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.427% 26.43% 00.00% 500 0.00 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 73.573% 73.57% 00.00% 1392 0.00 { 99-77, 22, KTs+, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, KJo+ }

I am pushing him off or am ahead of some of that, but the majority is calling a turn lead to and then folding to a 3barrel, especially a river heart. In summary, I'm intentionally giving myself bad pot odds and I don't think I have much in implied odds. Do you all still think leading the turn is the best option? If so how much do you bet?
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nutsinho
Old 10-08-2008, 06:27 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silly String
but the majority is calling a turn lead and then folding to a 3barrel
isn't this the best thing possible??

BET THE TURN
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Alexos
Old 10-08-2008, 06:35 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Silly String
Old 10-08-2008, 06:55 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silly String
but the majority is calling a turn lead and then folding to a 3barrel
isn't this the best thing possible??

BET THE TURN
God, sometimes I feel so stupid for even posting. You make this such an EZ game, Nuts.
So, given my read, you are tripling this even if the flush draw whiffs, yes?
Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
 
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mixchange
Old 10-09-2008, 12:45 AM #9 (permalink)  
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triple barrell
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Renton
Old 10-11-2008, 04:45 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 i don't rly see why you need to triple barrel

seems like pretty big spew actually

just bet the turn, plenty folds, and if he calls he prob has a strong hand
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