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Harry
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08-12-2007, 03:35 AM
Post subject: My sh*tty summer (lc)
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Philly
Posts: 722
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mother f*cker. How am I supposed to boc running like this??
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PSU Class of 2011 weeeeeeee!
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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can you post the link for this? i have tried searching for it but im a complete retard with the forum search thing.
and wow, that graph sucks.
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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nevermind, i found it
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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Halv
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pro crastinator
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: No hindsight for the blind.
Posts: 1,842
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But how much did you win?
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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my graph looks like that, only its a big cliff after 3k hands and its 2 limits down 
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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I can't wait until he makes a version that works at Ongame sites. I seriously think I'm running so awful in huge pots. Way too many 2 outers to be hitting to be right.
And if I'm not running bad God help me!
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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lol, im actually running about $100 over expectation over my last 10k hands.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bode-ist
lol, im actually running about $100 over expectation over my last 10k hands.
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fish.
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Harry
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Philly
Posts: 722
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You're going in the wrong direction Blue Line. Red line is your friend! Go to Red Line god damnit!
50k breakeven, first for me. I gotta be playing bad because even equity adjusted i'm barely ahead for the summer(like +$1400 over 50k).
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PSU Class of 2011 weeeeeeee!
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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thinking about it a little more now, i don't think the luck graph is all that useful unless you're a bad player.
think about it...the luck graph calculates the times you're all in and checks to see if you were good or bad and does the graph stuff.
well, if you're a good player, your actual winnings will ALWAYS be lower than the equity winnings, since you're likely never getting it in with a lesser hand than your opponent.
the only times where you "suck out" would be KK vs AA, QQ vs KK/AA, AK vs KK, AK vs AA. all the other times would be the opponent sucking out on you.
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Halv
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pro crastinator
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: No hindsight for the blind.
Posts: 1,842
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It's not useful for analyzing you game, but it can help you deal with the mental side of a swing. Seeing that you're -20 buyins in all-in equity makes a 10 buyin downswing seem less severe and should help with keeping your confidence up.
That said the luck graph is obviously flawed in that it only looks at your equity from the all-in moment. In other words, if you put 99% of your stack in as a huge favorite, but the villain hits his magic card and makes you put in the last chip on the turn while drawing dead, your luck graph isn't going to show that you were "unlucky".
Someone should make a guide on how to use the other tabs of the program as that is where it gets exiting.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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As someone on 2p2 also said, the graph also doesn't take into account "coolers". Say your KK runs into AA 10 times in a row preflop and doesn't suck out, the graph won't consider that unlucky but we know it sure as hell is.
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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Harry
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Philly
Posts: 722
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
thinking about it a little more now, i don't think the luck graph is all that useful unless you're a bad player.
think about it...the luck graph calculates the times you're all in and checks to see if you were good or bad and does the graph stuff.
well, if you're a good player, your actual winnings will ALWAYS be lower than the equity winnings, since you're likely never getting it in with a lesser hand than your opponent.
the only times where you "suck out" would be KK vs AA, QQ vs KK/AA, AK vs KK, AK vs AA. all the other times would be the opponent sucking out on you.
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That doesn't make sense. It doesn't just calculate if you were ahead or behind, and graph that. It calculates what your total equity is, and whether or not you are below or above that.
So if you have AA vs KK 5 times and win each one, you are running good, or above equity. If you run KK into AA 5 times and lose each, you are running bad, since KK is only a 4-1 dog.
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PSU Class of 2011 weeeeeeee!
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Harry
So if you have AA vs KK 5 times and win each one, you are running good, or above equity. If you run KK into AA 5 times and lose each, you are running bad, since KK is only a 4-1 dog.
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in both of your examples, the red and blue line should be the same.
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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change what he said to 6.
if you are a good player your winnings wont ALWAYS be below your equity lol thats just retarded
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt
change what he said to 6.
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no
4-1 means you should win 1 for every 4 you lose.
If you get in 5 times at 4:1 and lose all of them then you are running bad i.e. below the red line. If you get in 5 times at 1:4 and win 5 then you are running good i.e. above the red line.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HalvSame
That said the luck graph is obviously flawed in that it only looks at your equity from the all-in moment. In other words, if you put 99% of your stack in as a huge favorite, but the villain hits his magic card and makes you put in the last chip on the turn while drawing dead, your luck graph isn't going to show that you were "unlucky".
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That isnt what it does. You guys really should read the help bit  . With hands that went to showdown it works out your sklansky bucks on each streets and sums them for your total expectation for the hand.
e.g. you have AA Vs KK. You bet 99bbs preflop as a 4:1 favorite and he smooth calls. The betting is 198bbs and you have 80% equity so you get +59.4 Sklansky bucks. You check the flop and he checks behind. You are still a big favorite but there is no betting so you get 0 Sklansky bucks. The turn checks aswell. The river is a K and you shove for 1bb and he snap calls. The total betting on this street is 2bb and you have 0% equity so you lose 1bb.
Total Sklansky bucks for the hand is +58.4
Obviously it is still flawed because real Sklansky bucks should take into account the fact that he probably calls 1bb on the river even when he doesnt river the K. It also doesnt take into account peoples ranges so that when you get allin preflop with KK against a guy who open shoved the last 30 hands and he turns over AA it doesnt consider that as getting unlucky. It still does a pretty good job of estimating your swings though and its pretty reassuring when youre in a downswing to see that you actually have been getting horribly unlucky in big pots.
Its very important that people dont misuse this tool and become complacent in a downswing though. There are always leaks to plug even if you did get 4 outered twice in the past 30 minutes.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Halv
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pro crastinator
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: No hindsight for the blind.
Posts: 1,842
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HalvSame
That said the luck graph is obviously flawed in that it only looks at your equity from the all-in moment. In other words, if you put 99% of your stack in as a huge favorite, but the villain hits his magic card and makes you put in the last chip on the turn while drawing dead, your luck graph isn't going to show that you were "unlucky".
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That isnt what it does. You guys really should read the help bit . With hands that went to showdown it works out your sklansky bucks on each streets and sums them for your total expectation for the hand. |
Woops my bad, must have mixed up the EV programs. I know either AllinCalc or PokerEV does it though, which program is this graph from again?
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Harry
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Philly
Posts: 722
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It's PokerEV. It's only calculating my equity in hands that got all in before the river.
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PSU Class of 2011 weeeeeeee!
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