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my destacking lament

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jailhousejoe

11-28-2005, 09:31 AM Post subject: my destacking lament

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: UK

Posts: 32

- jailhousejoe sitting in seat 1 with $19.00 [Dealer]
- markodegr8 sitting in seat 2 with $2.70
- crazycooky sitting in seat 3 with $19.70
- Trev80 sitting in seat 4 with $45.54
- flezi123 sitting in seat 5 with $13.14
- MajinGG sitting in seat 6 with $31.00

markodegr8 posted the small blind - $0.10
crazycooky posted the big blind - $0.20
** Dealing card to jailhousejoe: Queen of Clubs, King of Clubs
Trev80 folded
flezi123 folded
MajinGG folded
jailhousejoe raised - $0.60
markodegr8 folded
crazycooky called - $0.60

** Dealing the flop: 10 of Clubs, Queen of Hearts, 9 of Clubs
crazycooky checked
jailhousejoe bet - $1.00
crazycooky raised - $3.00
jailhousejoe raised - $10.00
crazycooky went all-in - $16.30
jailhousejoe went all-in - $8.40
crazycooky shows: Jack of Clubs, 8 of Spades

** Dealing the turn: Ace of Diamonds

** Dealing the river: 7 of Hearts
crazycooky wins $37.80 from the main pot

OPPs VPIP is over 80%...my question is: is there any getting away from this hand? Does anyone hate my reraise? If Id have just called the check-raise on the flop could i ever have worked out his flopped straight and folded, or got value from hitting my draw? Im beginning to doubt my thinking but i was worried if he had the jack and a pair I wanted to win it there, so I bet heavily and pot-committed myself. Was also wondering what you FTR gurus would have done with K/Q o/s?... perhaps just call the check-raise, call the guy down and fold to any scare cards?

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SmackinYaUp

11-28-2005, 02:02 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: B N L

Posts: 1,725

You definitely have a huge hand on that flop. Your two hands as is are 45.6% vs 54.4% to win, with his having the slight advantage. If he had the bigger end of the straight KsJc for example, then he is a 59.7% favorite.

Other than that, he could have a twopair of some sort. If he now only has a 47.8% chance of winning the hand.

If he had bottom set with pocket nines, he is now a 61.3% favorite.

If he is also drawing with AcJc, his draw is a 55.7% favorite.

These odds are all according to the cardplayer odds calculator.

Its all looking like a coinflip. The flop is pretty coordinated and with him putting in a 3rd bet, he's probably got the nuts or close to it. The thing is, you probably have a big enough pot by now that entering a coinflip is +ev.

What does everyone else think?

He who drinks beer sleeps well.
He who sleeps well cannot sin.
He who does not sin goes to Heaven.

lamaros

11-28-2005, 02:20 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 346

Huge?

SmackinYaUp

11-28-2005, 02:57 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: B N L

Posts: 1,725

Ok, maybe not huge, but its definitely large.

on a slightly different board it'd be huge.

He who drinks beer sleeps well.
He who sleeps well cannot sin.
He who does not sin goes to Heaven.

twosevoff

11-28-2005, 10:51 PM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2004

Posts: 526

I would say this qualifies as a huge hand. At that limit, against an opponent seeing 80% of flops, I would try to get as much money in on that flop every time, automatically. Once he raised you to 3 the reraise is good because there's a good chance you have the best hand here (JQ or JT are likely), and even if you're behind like Smackin said you're liable to be about even money.

jailhousejoe

11-29-2005, 09:59 AM

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: UK

Posts: 32

Thanks..u both always give good advice on this forum so its nice to know ur not losing the plot by chasing bad draws when ur running bad - just lost 3 buy-ins

I felt it was good to go with it - if im going to raise with KQs then this is the kind of flop I would hope to hit. Anyway, rebought and tho it aint goot to target opps I got a third of it back just before he left the table with this pretty standard rope-em-dope em play...even got a nice bet out him on the end. cheers smackin and twosevenoff.

- jailhousejoe sitting in seat 1 with $29.50
- pjfabbri sitting in seat 2 with $4.80
- crazycooky sitting in seat 3 with $29.70
- LeifarneK sitting in seat 4 with $19.95 [Dealer]
- BigBear303 sitting in seat 5 with $14.01
- MajinGG sitting in seat 6 with $22.55

BigBear303 posted the small blind - $0.10
MajinGG posted the big blind - $0.20
pjfabbri posted to play - $0.20
** Dealing card to jailhousejoe: King of Hearts, Queen of Clubs
jailhousejoe raised - $0.60
pjfabbri folded
crazycooky called - $0.60
LeifarneK folded
BigBear303 called - $0.60
MajinGG folded

** Dealing the flop: Queen of Spades, 8 of Diamonds, 2 of Diamonds
BigBear303 checked
jailhousejoe bet - $1.40
crazycooky called - $1.40
BigBear303 folded

** Dealing the turn: 10 of Diamonds
jailhousejoe bet - $2.20
crazycooky called - $2.20

** Dealing the river: 4 of Spades
jailhousejoe checked
crazycooky bet - $2.20
jailhousejoe called - $2.20
crazycooky shows: 9 of Diamonds, 8 of Spades
jailhousejoe shows: King of Hearts, Queen of Clubs
jailhousejoe wins $13.50 from the main pot

Miffed22001

11-29-2005, 11:47 AM

#7 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

80% of flops makes it a no brainer push imo.

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my destacking lament

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