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max ev on this river?

  
 
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benny999
Old 04-28-2007, 10:06 PM     Post subject: max ev on this river? #1 (permalink)  
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villain is 30/10/5, 50% cbet after ~1,000 hands. he seems noobish like he thinks ppl are bluffing too much.
I think he sees me as tag, capable of moves. he called the turn pretty quick.

what do you think of how I play up to the river? is a double c/r the best play on the river, or?

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No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1./$2.
4 players
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Stack sizes:
UTG: $257.45
Button: $92.90
SB: $104.10
Hero: $200

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with 9 9
UTG raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: K 6 6 ($15, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

Turn: 9 ($15, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $15, Hero raises to $45, UTG calls.

River: Q ($105, 2 players)
Hero...thinks he should've been more ready to play the river.
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Genitruc
Old 04-28-2007, 10:10 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 very marginal

sometimes he's calling the turn with a bare A high draw and sometimes he's calling the turn with a hand that will want to put YOU on a missed semi-bluff (someting like JJ/1010 that "won't believe" you're value-betting a K/Q if you shove river).

I think it's very close but I'd usually shove in this spot after running my time bank almost down to zero.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-28-2007, 10:11 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 85 dollars.
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dsaxton
Old 04-28-2007, 11:55 PM #4 (permalink)  
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benny999
Old 04-29-2007, 08:51 AM #5 (permalink)  
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ya thanks. i was just frustrated villain insta folded when i pushed the river, so wondered if that was dumb.
but checking doesn't make much more sense since lots of hands he calls the turn with have SD value so would just check that back.

smaller bet makes sense though too.
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c-luvin
Old 04-29-2007, 09:36 AM #6 (permalink)  
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yea i like a smaller bet rather than a shove, your hand is so flushy so vbet half to 3/4 if you want a call
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bode
Old 04-29-2007, 03:16 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 ~$75 is better than a shove here IMO
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-29-2007, 04:12 PM #8 (permalink)  
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~$75 is better than a shove here IMO
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